The Actual Risks of Geoengineering

Hurricanes Helene and Milton sparked conspiracy theories about government-created weather events via geoengineering, the large-scale, intentional manipulation of the earth’s processes to modify weather. These theories are false; there is no evidence that any entity created the storms. But according to RAND's Emmi Yonekura, the risks associated with geoengineering are real.

While major actors—including the United States, China, and the United Kingdom—have experimented with weather modification in the past, hostile use of environmental modification has been banned globally for decades. Today, scientists are studying a range of geoengineering approaches that are largely aimed at addressing the accelerating effects of climate change. These include stratospheric aerosol injection to reflect sunlight, large-scale reforestation, and direct air carbon capture and storage. Most of these technologies are in their infancy and have yet to be adopted by a major global actor.

Geoengineering comes with real environmental risks, such as potential changes to precipitation patterns; potential water pollution and nutrient runoff; ecosystem disruption; and large energy and water demands. Implementing geoengineering could lead to geopolitical risks as well.

So, Yonekura concludes, conspiracy theories about the recent hurricanes are indeed false. But ironically, they do point to the open risk that geoengineering may still pose.