Three reasons why some states report election results later.
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Welcome to the October edition of The Lever, featuring expert insights and analysis from Voting Rights Lab ([link removed]) . Today, we’re exploring three key reasons why timelines for counting and reporting election results vary so much state-by-state.
Plus, we’re taking a close look at the historical accuracy of state-based polling to predict presidential election results; examining which methods voters use to cast their ballots in different states; and lifting up a new report from the Sentencing Project on felony disenfranchisement and its impacts.
** PREPARE NOW TO WAIT FOR ELECTION RESULTS
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Election results should never be considered official on election night — but that doesn’t stop media outlets from competing to be the first to “call” the race based on preliminary, incomplete results. Our state election experts identified three main reasons why there are such variable timelines for counting and reporting results:
1. State laws vary regarding how and when election officials can begin processing, verifying, and counting ballots.
2. Voting patterns vary from state to state, leading to unique issues related to when results are reported.
3. In close races, particularly in battleground states, election officials are required to count a higher percentage of the vote before media outlets can make an unofficial call.
Read our latest blog post to learn about different states’ timelines for reporting results and what to expect as results come in. ([link removed])
READ OUR ANALYSIS ([link removed])
** BY THE NUMBERS
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3.1%
That’s how many percentage points of inaccuracy have been observed on average in state-level polling leading up to presidential elections since 2000. This figure might appear small, but the last two (very close) presidential elections have demonstrated how consequential a few percentage points can be.
A new story from the New York Times ([link removed]) explores how presidential polls are developed and how methodologies have changed over time – as well as some key factors that may have significant impacts on poll accuracy this time around.
READ MORE IN THE NEW YORK TIMES ([link removed])
** WHAT WE'RE READING
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How Americans vote has changed significantly over the past few years, as states have adopted different policies about voting early (either by mail or in person). In fact, fewer than half of all votes in the 2022 election were cast in person on Election Day. A new story from the Washington Post ([link removed]) explores the popularity of various voting methods across various states.
READ MORE IN THE WASHINGTON POST ([link removed])
** FROM OUR PARTNERS
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A new report from The Sentencing Project ([link removed]) builds on their 2022 research ([link removed]) on the state of felony disenfranchisement and the people most affected by these laws.
As of this year, all states except for Maine and Vermont have laws on the books restricting voting access for people with felony convictions. The specifics of these laws vary ([link removed]) — most states allow people convicted of certain felonies to automatically regain voting eligibility immediately following incarceration or upon completion of probation or parole.
However, an estimated 4 million Americans (about 1.7% of the voting age population) will be ineligible to vote in the 2024 election.
LEARN MORE FROM THE SENTENCING PROJECT ([link removed])
** THE MARKUP
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The Markup is Voting Rights Lab’s weekly law and policy update, powered by our Voting Rights Tracker ([link removed]) . If you’d like to get these insights straight to your inbox, head here to sign up ([link removed]) . Here’s a preview of what we’re watching this week:
Various courts dismiss voter roll maintenance lawsuits. Courts in Michigan ([link removed]) , Nevada ([link removed]) , and Wisconsin ([link removed]) granted motions to dismiss lawsuits that alleged officials in those states neglected their duties to remove certain voters from the rolls. In Virginia ([link removed]) , a court temporarily blocked the removal of thousands of voters.
Georgia Supreme Court allows new election rules to remain blocked through the election. The Georgia Supreme Court denied ([link removed]) a request by Republican Party organizations to expedite an appeal of a recent decision blocking ([link removed]) implementation of last-minute rules passed by the State Election Board. The appeal will proceed under the normal schedule, leaving the existing injunction in place through the election.
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