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Week of October 28, 2024 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
Early Friday morning, Iran was struck several times by Israel’s military, with powerful explosions resonating through Tehran and elsewhere, marking the most significant attack on Iranian soil since the Iran-Iraq war decades ago. The strikes were followed by a video statement from Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the Israeli military, announcing an operation against military sites in Iran, dubbed “Days of Repentance.” Hagari claimed the operation was retaliation for “months of continuous aggression” by Iran against Israel.
The operation, conducted over approximately four hours, struck sites in Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan provinces, according to Iran’s Air Defense Command. Specific details of the damage and targets remain undisclosed by Iranian authorities. Israel claims its fighter jets successfully hit “missile production facilities used in attacks on Israel,” indicating an effort to undermine Iranian capabilities to target Israel again after missile strikes in April and October managed to hit military bases in Israel.
The assault commenced at 1:00 a.m. local time in Israel on October 25, with Israel initially targeting Syrian defense systems using F-35 jets to clear a safer pathway. It appears Israel then struck Iranian radar installations near the border, including Iran’s Taolo-e-Fajr 2 radar in Ilam. Israel alleges it neutralized four Iranian S-300 air defense units, although images so far confirm damage to only one in Tehran.
Following the radar attacks, Israel reportedly deployed F-15 and F-16 jets, armed with long-range Sparrow ballistic missiles in “Black,” “Blue,” and “Silver” variants, to strike targets within Iran without breaching Iranian airspace. A similar strike took place in the spring following Iran’s April strike on Israel, targeting an S-300 system radar in Isfahan. Reports indicate fuel tanks from these missiles were found in Iraq’s Al-Anbar province, suggesting launches from afar.
Iranian media report that Israeli strikes resulted in five fatalities. Among the deceased is Allahverdi Rahimpour, initially identified as military personnel but later confirmed to be a civilian contractor. Other victims included military members Mohammad Mehdi Shahrokhi, Hamzeh Jahandideh, Sajjad Mansouri, and Mehdi Naqavi.
Iran’s air defenses appeared insufficient against the high-range missiles used in these attacks, especially as the S-300 systems demonstrated limited efficacy. However, the Bavar-373, Iran’s longest-range air defense system, reportedly showed more promise.
Among Israel’s key targets was the ballistic missile testing and manufacturing center near Shahroud, 900 kilometers from the Iran-Iraq border. Further targets included the Tolo-e-Fajr 2 radar site in Ilam, with reports suggesting military casualties there. Other documented hits include an S-300 site in Tehran and substantial damage in Parchin, where satellite imagery indicates three damaged warehouses and an impacted tunnel entrance, potentially containing critical equipment. In Parchin, Iran manufactures equipment related to ballistic missile production, with the primary facilities believed to be housed in tunnels beneath the mountains, which appear to remain undamaged.
The strategic Khoujir site near Sarakhs Hesar forest, east of Tehran, was also struck. This facility is thought to house components for ballistic missiles, further underscoring Israel’s focus on Iran’s missile capabilities. Additionally, a radar installation in Mahshahr was hit, raising concerns about Iran’s southern defense as Mahshahr is home to key ports and petrochemical refineries.
Mahshahr’s air defense base, positioned between Mahshahr and Imam Khomeini Port, holds strategic significance. According to reports, Major Hamzeh Jahandideh may have perished following the strike on one of Mahshahr’s defense systems. Mahshahr’s base hosts both Army and IRGC defense systems, including Mersead missile systems, Russian S-300s, and Krar drones, reinforcing its critical role in southern Iran’s defense infrastructure.
Arms control experts examining the initial evidence of the strikes have noted that the strikes targeted critical infrastructure that has been used in Iran’s missile manufacturing. Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies indicated that the Shahrouz facility has played a key role in Iran’s missile program, and the destruction of a key building at the site could significantly hamper missile production moving forward. Likewise, Decker Eveleth of CNA indicated the strikes did damage to “warehouses and mixing buildings” at Khojir and Parchin, which have been used in Iran’s production of solid-fueled ballistic missiles. He assessed that it “is likely that these strikes will impede Iran’s ability to produce advanced ballistic missiles like the ones used in the strikes on Israel on October 1st,” noting the extent depends on how rapidly Iran can replace the destroyed infrastructure.
In a statement to the United Nations, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for an emergency UN Security Council session, accusing Israel of destabilizing the region further. The Council, led by Switzerland, scheduled a meeting on October 28 to deliberate on the escalating conflict. Iran’s President, Massoud Pezeshkian, emphasized Iran’s right to defend itself, stating, “We do not seek war, but we will respond appropriately to the Zionist regime’s aggression.”
In a parallel message, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cautioned against either “inflating or downplaying” Israel’s actions, urging Iranian officials to carefully decide the nation’s course of action, balancing response with national interest.
Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran had pledged retaliation, a vow eventually fulfilled on October 1 after some delay. It later emerged that Iran had engaged in extensive negotiations to forgo retaliation, contingent upon a ceasefire in Gaza—a condition Israel has yet to accept.
The U.S., for its part, appears to have worked closely with Israel, warning against targeting nuclear or civilian infrastructure and urging military targets inside of Iran instead. In recent days, the U.S. deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system to Israel along with one hundred U.S. troops to man it. Indications are that this support may have been used as leverage to shape Israel’s military response closer in line with U.S. interests.
The U.S., for its part, noted Israel’s operation and indicated it played no role in the strikes. A senior administration official stated “The United States was not a participant in this military operation. The President and his national security team, of course, worked with the Israelis over recent weeks to encourage Israel to conduct a response that was targeted and proportional with low risk of civilian harm, and that appears to have been precisely what transpired this evening.” They strongly condemned Iran’s strikes on October 1, arguing that such strikes could have killed “hundreds of civilians,” and urged foreign nations to “press Iran to stop these attacks against Israel so that we can move beyond this direct cycle of attacks.”
It remains to be seen whether Iran will feel compelled to respond to this latest military operation. Critically, with the targeting of some air defense systems in Iran, the nation could be in a precarious position with some of its infrastructure – including oil and nuclear facilities – potentially more vulnerable to attack than just a few days ago.
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