|
 |
Is There a Fumble in Football’s Future?
In this week’s Editor’s Corner, Jennifer Tiedemann talks about the two big challenges to football’s continued popularity: danger and demographics
|
| ||||||
 |
My husband and I recently grabbed a drink at a local bar in the New York City suburbs, watching the start of a Yankees playoff game airing on the nearby TVs. Around the third inning or so, the woman sitting next to us asked the bartender to change the channel to the Jets game against the Buffalo Bills, which was just starting. Since when, I thought to myself, did a Yankees postseason appearance pale in comparison to an early-season game from the already floundering Jets?
This got me thinking about football in America—and how much of a juggernaut it seems to be. In 2023, a whopping 93 of the 100 most-viewed TV broadcasts were NFL games. Skipping out on a wedding invite to watch a college football game has become commonplace.
That’s why what I’m about to say may sound a little crazy: I think it’s quite possible that football won’t be king in America for much longer. Why? The answer can be summed up in two words: danger and demographics.
In the past few years we’ve started learning a lot about the health risks associated with contact sports like football. In particular, we’ve become increasingly aware of the effects that football can have on the brain—and the picture is a frightening one. Hard hits on the field can result in repeated concussions, which in turn can result in deleterious long-term brain damage. Indeed, a significant number of football players have been posthumously diagnosed with chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a degenerative brain disorder that results in behavior and mood problems, sometimes serious enough that dementia or suicide is the ultimate outcome.
A growing number of Americans now say they’re concerned about this problem. An October 2022 YouGov poll, for instance, shows that about four in 10 adults say they’re following the issues of brain injuries in football very or somewhat closely, and about the same number believe that the NFL isn’t doing enough to address problems of head injuries and concussions among players. One January 2023 survey found that even among folks who watch sports on a near-daily basis, 23% called football too violent—and more than four in 10 believed that professional football players are being “exploited for our enjoyment.”
And frankly, we’re only starting to come to grips with not just the seriousness of CTE, but how widespread it is among those who play contact sports. It was only in 2022 that the U.S. National Institutes of Health announced its conclusion that repeated head injuries from contact sports cause CTE. Just last year, the Boston University CTE Center found CTE in the brains of 345 of 376 deceased NFL players they studied. While that’s not to suggest that more than 90% of current NFL players are affected by CTE, it does indicate that it is extremely prevalent among those who have taken repeated blows to the head.
It wouldn’t be surprising, then, to see the percentage of Americans who find the prevalence of football-inflicted head injuries to be problematic go up in the years ahead; it also wouldn’t be surprising to see more folks unable to reconcile this concern with continuing to follow the game.
But our increasing understanding of the risks of football isn’t the only factor that could affect the future of the game. America’s demographics are changing as well, and this offers up some potentially rocky indicators for football’s prospects. While football may be far and away the most popular sport in the U.S., it’s absolutely dwarfed by worldwide interest in soccer. In nearly every country except the United States, soccer is the spectator sport of choice. As more people come to the United States from other parts of the world, love for this pastime is coming with them. And this love is starting to show in our attitudes: According to Gallup, in 2012, 19% of Americans considered themselves fans of professional soccer; by 2019, 31% did. Watch for soccer’s fan base to continue to grow stateside. (Indeed, it gets some of my fellow Discourse writers fired up.)
Meanwhile, the NFL has been playing an increasing number of international games as a way to bring more attention to the sport around the world—this year, in London, Munich and São Paulo. An estimated 45,000 people attended the Brazil Packers vs. Eagles game last month. But while that may be an impressive number, it’s far from the most highly attended sporting event in the country this year: One game in the Copa do Brasil, the country’s national soccer series, attracted more than 65,000 fans just one week after the NFL game.
As Dan Rothschild pointed out a few years ago in Discourse, European soccer (rather than American football) is the 800-pound gorilla of global sport:
As European soccer (with its hugely popular clubs such as Arsenal and Real Madrid) has taken over the world, soccer is now consumed globally. The median [European Soccer League] team supporter doesn’t live in the team’s community, and likely doesn’t live in Europe at all. The Football League Cup has been renamed the Carabao Cup for a Thai energy drink; stadiums bear the names of Middle Eastern airlines, American credit cards, and a Bangkok-based duty-free conglomerate. Advertisements in Chinese are seen by viewers of top teams worldwide.
In the years ahead, especially with the World Cup coming to the United States in 2026, it seems possible if not likely that soccer will be giving football a run for its money, and then some, on its home turf.
I don’t mean to say that football’s days as America’s top sport are definitely numbered. It certainly may be the case that football’s time in the sun will last for a long time into the future. But to assume that it will ignores the fact that change is an inherent part of life—even in sports. After all, just because football reigns supreme now doesn’t mean it always has. Today, 41% of Americans say that football is their favorite sport to watch, but in 1960, only 21% said the same. That year, the top American sport was baseball, with 34% calling it their favorite. Today, it’s a much more dismal picture for “America’s pastime,” with only 10% saying it’s their go-to sport.
It’s clear, then, that a snapshot of a moment in time doesn’t represent the way things will be forever. America’s changing demographics and its changing views on the dangers of contact sports are reminders that America is always evolving. In fact, it may be that not even football is forever.
Meanwhile ...
Where I’m Going: With the weather starting to turn a bit chillier, my mind has turned to fall activities. Some of that involves a trip to the kitchen to try out some new fall recipes (I really enjoyed making—and eating—this stuffed acorn squash recipe recently).
But my absolute favorite activity every time fall rolls around is the New York State Sheep and Wool Festival. I’m a “knitwit”—I took up knitting in college, and it’s since become one of my favorite hobbies. Held in upstate Dutchess County, the New York event is the largest such event in the country, attracting 30,000 visitors over just two days.
There are several reasons why this annual event is a must-attend for me. First of all, it’s a great opportunity to stock up on luscious yarns from farms and yarn shops from all across the country. Second, the Hudson Valley is bee-you-ti-ful in mid-October. The leaves are truly at the peak of their gorgeous fall colors, there’s a little chill in the air, the air has the crisp and smoky autumn scent. Did I mention that they sell the best warm fried apple cider donuts there? It’s absolute autumn perfection.
 |
And lastly, there are so many cute animals! The festival may be a particular draw for knitters, but it’s also a chance to get up close with sheep, alpacas, llamas, cashmere goats, angora rabbits and many others. They’re all fun to watch and pet—and it’s nice to meet all the furry friends from which yarn comes!
Latest Stories
Martin Gurri, “The World According to Kamala Harris”
Henry Olsen, “Getting a Handle on the Hispanic Vote”
Ben Klutsey with Corey Brettschneider, “Pluralist Points: Citizen Checks on Presidential Power”
Michael C. Behrent, “On Political Disenchantment”
Christina Behe, “We Need To Stop Treating Technology Like It’s Foolproof”
From the Archives
Jon Gabriel, “America’s Got a Bad Case of the Electoral Doldrums”
Michael J. Ard, “Can We Get the Statesmanship We Need?”
You’re currently a free subscriber to Discourse .
| ||||
