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Weekend Reads
Ahead of a pivotal US election, the Biden-Harris administration sees the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as an opportunity to end the war in Gaza and secure a much-needed foreign policy victory.
But President Joe Biden’s diplomacy suffers from three major errors, writes Michael Doran in the Wall Street Journal. Read his key points below.
Key Insights
1. The administration mistakenly assumed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be forced into accepting a chastened Hamas as a major political actor in Gaza.
Biden presumably hopes that Sinwar’s death will force Hamas to negotiate a ceasefire. But in the eyes of most Israelis, the killing simply vindicated Netanyahu’s demand for “total victory.” The prime minister sees a chance to break Hamas apart and negotiate individually with its pieces. He is offering local Hamas commanders a choice: Either you release the hostages under your control and receive safe passage out of Gaza, or you die. Biden’s effort to reach a deal with a centralized Hamas is out of date.
2. The president and his team have misread the connection between Gaza and the Lebanon front.
Biden officials seem to want a ceasefire in Gaza that will also lead to a ceasefire in Lebanon. They expect Hezbollah and Iran to stop attacking Israel once Hamas agrees to a ceasefire. From Israel’s point of view, linking the Gaza and Lebanon fronts works to the advantage of Iran and its self-styled axis of resistance. The Biden initiative calls for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon followed by a period of diplomacy designed to achieve a lasting political settlement. By contrast, the Israelis feel, correctly, that the tide of war has shifted dramatically in their favor. Thanks to the decapitation of Hezbollah and the entry of Israeli forces into Lebanon, Israel can insist on far more favorable terms than American policy currently offers. Why would Israel take its boot from Hezbollah’s neck first and then start negotiating?
3. The Biden team seems to be misreading the Iran-Israel dynamic.
Sinwar’s death comes as Israel has been preparing to launch a reprisal against Iran for launching ballistic-missile attacks against it. For Israel, the reprisal is crucial to revitalizing its deterrence against Iran. Biden’s ceasefire initiative will likely come with a demand for even more restraint by Israel against Iran. Netanyahu may or may not heed such counsel. If he does, he will then pursue “total victory” in Gaza and Lebanon even more urgently—if only to prove that Iran and its proxies can’t use America to restrain Israel so they can shoot at it with impunity.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
The Biden administration is using the same old playbook of seeking engagement with Iran. But the rest of the world has moved on, Michael Doran and Gadi Taub argue.
Israel is teaching the United States a valuable lesson: Winning is good. Liel Leibovitz explains why Jerusalem should not heed Washinton’s misguided calls for restraint.
Walter Russell Mead discusses the domestic political implications of Sinwar’s death for the Biden and Netanyahu administrations on What Really Matters.
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