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Week of October 21, 2024 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
The 16th BRICS summit, held in Kazan, Russia, has brought together leaders of countries often seen as part of the Eastern bloc or aligned against the West. Hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, this summit aims to enhance cooperation among its member states. On the sidelines of the summit, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held multiple bilateral meetings, including with President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, signaling growing strategic ties between the nations.
According to Iran’s state news agency IRNA, Pezeshkian and Putin reaffirmed their commitment to a comprehensive strategic agreement, emphasizing the importance of finalizing the deal in the near future. The groundwork for this agreement, described as a “comprehensive cooperation pact,” was laid in August, with both leaders now pushing for its formal ratification.
In recent years, Iran’s closer relations with Russia and China, particularly through its membership in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, have signaled a shift in its geopolitical strategy. Back in 2021, Iran signed a 25-year comprehensive partnership with China, underscoring its long-term commitment to regional cooperation.
Pezeshkian also met briefly with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to discuss bilateral and regional issues. The leaders touched on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, urging an end to Israeli aggression. Simultaneously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with his UAE counterpart, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, focusing on their shared concern over Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. Araghchi emphasized that despite some differences between the two nations, Iran would not compromise on its territorial claims, particularly regarding the three disputed islands in the Persian Gulf.
In a key meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pezeshkian expressed hopes for stronger bilateral relations, particularly in the context of BRICS membership. He highlighted the importance of accelerating joint projects, such as the development of the Chabahar Port, which is crucial for regional economic ties. Modi also reiterated India’s interest in expanding trade with Iran and stressed the necessity of maintaining consistent diplomatic efforts for peace in the region.
Another significant moment came when Pezeshkian met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Both leaders discussed regional security and the need to prevent further escalation in Gaza and Lebanon. Pezeshkian criticized Western double standards in supporting Israel while el-Sisi emphasized the importance of Muslim unity to end the conflict.
The summit also provided an opportunity for Pezeshkian to meet with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. These leaders voiced their shared opposition to Western hegemony, calling for greater cooperation among independent states to counter sanctions and other forms of economic pressure.
Throughout the summit, Pezeshkian stressed Iran’s commitment to peace, criticizing Israel for its continued attacks on Palestinians. He also reaffirmed Iran’s stance against U.S. sanctions, describing the BRICS alliance as a crucial platform for challenging Western dominance and fostering global justice.
As BRICS continues to evolve, its member states, including newcomers like Iran, seek to create a multipolar world order, free from the influence of Western powers. Pezeshkian’s active engagement at the summit highlights Iran’s growing role in this international alliance, as it navigates complex regional dynamics and strives to strengthen its economic and political ties across the globe.
After months of debate, Iran’s Guardian Council has officially approved the contentious “Family Protection Bill Through Promoting the Culture of Hijab and Chastity,” commonly known as the “Hijab and Chastity Bill.” The legislation, which has been the subject of widespread protests and controversy, has now been sent to Parliament for final legal proceedings.
Speaking at a press conference, Hadi Tahan Nazif, spokesperson for the Guardian Council, confirmed earlier reports from several Iranian Members of Parliament regarding the approval of the bill. He attributed the delay in an official announcement to premature disclosures by certain lawmakers, stating that further public communication was deemed unnecessary.
The bill, originally drafted by Iran’s judiciary following the nationwide protests of 2022, was fast-tracked by President Ebrahim Raisi’s government and submitted to Parliament. The bill itself proposes stricter enforcement of mandatory hijab and broader gender segregation in public spaces, including in universities, government offices, parks, and even hospital treatment areas.
Faced with widespread opposition, Iranian Members of Parliament avoided discussing the bill in the full assembly, opting instead for review and approval by the Parliament’s Judicial and Legal Commission. Following this unconventional process, the bill was sent to the Guardian Council but faced several rejections due to legal and religious concerns. After multiple revisions, however, the Council has finally given its approval.
According to Iranian law, the bill will now return to Parliament before being forwarded to the president, who is expected to sign it into law. President Masoud Pezeshkian, during his election campaign, notably criticized harsh measures enforcing the mandatory hijab. Despite this, 152 Members of Parliament voted in favor of the bill’s trial implementation for three years in September, which has sparked renewed debates.
The bill outlines various penalties for women who refuse to comply with the mandatory hijab, including both fines and non-monetary punishments. It also imposes penalties on public figures who protest against the hijab, barring them from professional activities and social media platforms. Businesses where women are found without hijab will face consequences, and government employees, as well as those in private sectors, are also subject to penalties for violating the dress code.
Critics have pointed out that the use of Article 85 of the Constitution, which allowed the bill to bypass full parliamentary debate, was a strategic way to avoid public scrutiny of the bill. Consequently, media coverage, including radio broadcasts of discussions on the bill, was restricted as well.
Some supporters of the regime have also opposed the bill, arguing that the proposed punishments are insufficient to combat “bad hijab” or “no hijab.” The bill mandates that law enforcement officers use smart technologies to issue warnings for first-time violations, such as sending text message warnings to women who are found in public or on social media without appropriate hijab.
Other contentious provisions in the bill include: punishments for those promoting anti-hijab content online, fines and bans on public activities for celebrities opposing the hijab, penalties for business owners if unveiled women are present in their establishments, enforcement of hijab rules for both government and private sector employees, and financial penalties for vigilante actions under the pretext of enforcing hijab laws.
In previous months, the Guardian Council had raised several objections to the bill, including concerns over conflicts of responsibility between government bodies. The Council also criticized the lack of a clear definition for terms like “immorality,” which would trigger certain punishments.
Nonetheless, as the bill moves toward implementation, it remains a focal point of tension between the government and Iranian citizens, particularly women who have long protested against the mandatory hijab since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Despite years of resistance, the regime continues to enforce the law, with some advocates even calling for harsher measures.
As the one-month mark approaches since Iran’s attack on Israeli military bases, global attention remains fixed on Israel and the prospect of its retaliation against Iran. Despite verbal warnings from Israeli officials, no counterattack has taken place, leading to speculation about the reasons behind the delay.
One significant factor appears to be the recent leak of sensitive Israeli defense plans, which surfaced on an Iran-linked Telegram channel. The origins of the leak are unknown, but the U.S. Department of Defense has confirmed that an investigation is underway. According to these documents, Israel had prepared an extensive missile strike involving over 50 long-range missiles with ranges between 300 and 2,000 kilometers.
The documents detail two specific ballistic missile systems: “Golden Horizon” and “Rocks.” “Rocks,” developed by Israel’s Rafael company, are designed to target surface and subterranean structures. “Golden Horizon” is believed to reference the “Blue Sparrow” missile, which boasts a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers. Israeli media reports suggest that concerns over Iran’s potential awareness of the attack pattern have prompted a delay, as the leak may have compromised the strategic plans. There are also rumors that the timing of this leak was deliberate, intended to push any potential military action beyond the U.S. presidential elections.
The leaked documents reportedly include classified U.S. assessments of Israel’s military readiness, analyzed by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency on October 15 and 16. The release has caused unease in Washington as Israel’s nuclear capabilities, while widely assumed, remain unacknowledged due to a longstanding agreement with the U.S. to keep this information unpublicized.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has continued his diplomatic outreach across the Middle East, recently meeting Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa to discuss regional stability. The meeting, which also included Bahrain’s Foreign Minister and other senior officials, focused on the ongoing crisis in Gaza and Lebanon. Araghchi condemned Israel’s actions and urged the collective pressure of Islamic countries on Israel’s supporters, particularly the U.S., to end the violence.
Araghchi also held talks with Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, where both underscored the importance of regional cooperation to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Lebanon. They both emphasized the need for humanitarian aid access and collaborative efforts to prevent the escalation of violence.
Continuing his diplomatic tour, Araghchi also met with Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al-Hamad Al-Sabah and Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Ali Al-Yahya. The Kuwaiti officials emphasized their commitment to good neighborly relations and regional stability, pledging to prevent any misuse of Kuwaiti territory for military purposes. Araghchi, in turn, emphasized Iran’s commitment to peaceful coexistence and criticized Israel’s actions as severe violations of humanitarian rights.
Iranian military officials have also issued strong warnings to Israel. In a recent statement, Major General Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, criticized Israel’s reliance on the U.S. THAAD missile defense system, saying, “Do not trust in the pipes of THAAD. They are limited, and you have put your faith in a constrained power. You will not succeed in this battle, and we will defeat you.”
As diplomatic and military tensions escalate, both regional and global actors continue to navigate the complex dynamics of this longstanding conflict.
Mohammad Sabahi, the Friday prayer leader of Kazeroon in Fars Province, was shot inside the mosque following Friday prayers on October 25. Initially, state outlets, including Iran’s national broadcaster IRIB, reported Sabahi’s death but later revised their reports, stating that he is alive but remains in critical condition.
Iran’s state television announced that the assailant took his own life immediately after shooting Sabahi. Mohammad Ali Bokhord, Kazeroon’s governor, who had earlier confirmed Sabahi’s death, later retracted his statement. He informed the official IRNA news agency that Sabahi is currently undergoing surgery, and his condition remains critical. The governor also mentioned that arrangements are being made to transfer Sabahi to a hospital in Shiraz for further treatment.
Photos from the scene show Sabahi’s blood-stained turban and the body of a man, reported to be the gunman, lying nearby with a cane. According to initial findings by IRIB, the attack appears to have been motivated by personal reasons.
Mohammad Sabahi had been appointed as Kazeroon’s Friday prayer leader in November 2019, following the death of his predecessor, Mohammad Khorsand, who was fatally stabbed in June 2019 while returning from a Ramadan prayer ceremony. In September that year, the perpetrator against Khorsand was publicly executed for the murder.
Kazeroon, located in western Fars Province, which is approximately 160 kilometers from Shiraz, has a history of violence against its clerics. In August 1981, Abdul Rahim Daneshjoo, then the Friday prayer leader and head judge of the local Revolutionary Court, was also assassinated by gunfire.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have conducted joint military drills in the strategic Oman Sea, an area once considered a potential battleground between these two regional powers. Saudi Defense Ministry spokesperson Brigadier General Turki Al-Malki confirmed Saudi participation in the exercises on October 23, stating that “the Royal Saudi Navy recently completed a joint naval drill with Iran’s navy and other countries in the Oman Sea.”
Iranian state media, including ISNA, quoted Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, who noted Saudi Arabia’s interest in expanding joint military exercises into the Red Sea. Both countries have reportedly exchanged invitations to each other’s ports, signaling a shift in their historically adversarial relationship.
Although officials provided limited details on the nature of the drills and the systems used, the joint exercises followed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Riyadh earlier this month. Araghchi’s meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman marked a significant improvement in bilateral relations. The conducting of these exercises also come more than one year after China brokered a peace agreement between the two regional rivals, ending years of hostilities.
The recent drills are notable as Saudi Arabia and Iran have long backed opposing sides in Yemen’s conflict, with the Saudi-Emirati coalition supporting the Yemeni government and Iran providing support to the Houthi rebels. This cooperation marks a historic development, highlighting the increasing normalization between the two states after years of diplomatic estrangement that began in 2016 following the execution of Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has sought to diversify its security partnerships, reducing reliance on the U.S. and strengthening ties with China, a key trade partner, and Russia, a significant player in OPEC+. Saudi Arabia has also received an invitation to join BRICS, the intergovernmental organization led by China and Russia, which seeks to provide an alternative to U.S. global influence.
The Saudi-Iranian exercises occurred shortly after Indian naval vessels INS Shardul and INS Tir arrived in Iran’s Bandar Abbas for a joint drill in the Persian Gulf. These exercises are even more significant given Iran’s recent barrage of over 200 missiles toward Israel on October 1, marking a continued period of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.
Javad Emam, Secretary-General of Iran’s Reformist Martyrs Party, published an open letter on Thursday, October 24, urging Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni to allow a legal gathering in support of lifting internet censorship. The letter, also shared on social media platform X, called for a demonstration to support unrestricted access to the internet.
In his post, Emam stated, “A call by opponents of lifting censorship, spread across Telegram channels and other digital platforms, has led to a protest outside Iran’s Information Technology Organization.” As spokesperson for the Iranian Reform Front, Emam shared an image of his letter, in which he wrote, “In line with Article 27 of the Constitution, the Martyrs Party plans to hold a gathering at the stated location next week to support the President’s promises and the public demand for an end to censorship.”
Elyas Hazrati, head of Iran’s Government Information Council, told Ham-Mihan newspaper that lifting internet restrictions has been a priority since the appointment of the new minister. He noted that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, upon returning from his recent trip, plans to initiate “the legal and administrative process to resolve the filtering issue.”
On Wednesday, October 23, Iran’s Minister of Communication and Information Technology, Sattar Hashemi, told reporters after a cabinet meeting, “The current situation is not in the nation’s best interest.” According to a Thursday report in Etemad newspaper, despite widespread calls from radical groups opposing unrestricted internet access, a recent protest against lifting censorship saw little public turnout. Hossein Allah-Karam, a founder of the Ansar Hezbollah group from the 1990s, was among the event’s organizers.
Protesters held signs reading, “Minister of Communications, have some shame—abandon the un-filtering plan” and “No country allows this much freedom to enemy platforms,” voicing strong opposition to any reduction in censorship. These calls for protest against lifting censorship come in response to the Pezeshkian administration’s recent announcement of plans to address the internet restrictions actively.
Before departing for Russia, President Pezeshkian reaffirmed his commitment to lifting online restrictions, a key campaign promise, to Khabar Online. While no single agency has taken full responsibility for internet censorship, government officials, including spokesperson Fatemeh Mahajeri, have acknowledged that the effort to restrict access has been largely ineffective.
Bijan Abbasi Arand, CEO of Iran’s Irancell, recently stated that two-thirds of internet users in Iran use VPNs to bypass restrictions, resulting in an estimated economic loss of over 20 trillion rials in recent years. Additionally, Iran’s Supreme Leader has repeatedly urged the government to manage what he considers a “lawless” cyberspace.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has submitted the proposed 1404 budget to Parliament, outlining a framework based on his commitments to lawmakers and the public. In his defense of the proposal, Pezeshkian hinted at an increased budget allocation for Iran’s military institutions amid escalating regional tensions, though he provided few specifics. Addressing another key topic, Pezeshkian discussed gasoline pricing and emphasized transparency in the budget process compared to previous years.
He stated, “Given regional conditions, the budget includes measures to strengthen defense capabilities, with inflation reduction as a key priority.”
The military budget allocation for 1403 was 722 trillion rials, marking a 197 trillion rial increase from the prior year, and this figure is expected to rise further in 1404. Pezeshkian’s proposal also suggests doubling the income tax threshold for wage earners and business owners, citing this as a measure to support low-income and vulnerable groups.
Inflation remains a pressing issue, with Iran’s Statistical Center reporting an annual inflation rate of 34.2% as of September 2024, though independent observers estimate it is likely higher. Pezeshkian acknowledged challenges in financing wheat procurement and noted that following the Supreme Leader’s approval, payments to wheat farmers would be disbursed. He further mentioned that next year’s budget would include a 40% increase in development spending, with Parliament scheduled to begin reviewing the proposal on October 30.
The 1404 budget has been set at 6.4 quadrillion rials. Pezeshkian also addressed the issue of energy subsidies, describing them as a significant challenge. He revealed that producing gasoline domestically costs around 8,000 rials per liter, while Iran spends approximately 90 trillion rials on imports annually, a figure expected to rise to 130 trillion rials if current trends continue. While some media outlets speculated that gasoline prices could increase, Planning and Budget Organization Chief Hamid Pourmohammadi clarified that no price hike is planned in the budget, with the government focusing instead on curbing consumption.
Since Pezeshkian took office, the possibility of a gasoline price increase has been raised repeatedly, though officials, including the oil minister, have dismissed the idea. Past fuel price increases have sparked unrest, as seen in November 2019, when sudden hikes led to widespread street protests. Currently, the government reportedly remains cautious about potential inflationary effects and social backlash.
Additionally, a recent report from the Parliament’s Research Center indicated that over 30% of Iran’s population lives below the poverty line, marking a persistent poverty level in recent years. The report emphasized the importance of improving macroeconomic conditions to alleviate poverty and noted that inflation has played a significant role in deepening inequality. Currently, the inflation rate stands at 35%, with a targeted reduction of 8% by 1404. However, the Center’s analysis warns of challenges in achieving economic growth goals set by the Seventh Development Plan (2024-2029) amid rising fiscal and energy imbalances.
One of the primary challenges for the government, according to the Research Center, is funding the subsidy reform program, which has strained the country’s financial stability. The Center reports a subsidy deficit of 170 trillion rials in 2024, which is projected to exceed 200 trillion rials next year.
In a recent forum on poverty and inequality, sociologist Maqsoud Farasatkhah estimated that one-third of Iranian households face absolute poverty. He noted that “millions of Iranians struggle with hunger, living on minimal caloric intake,” adding that Iran ranks among the top 10 countries for hunger globally despite reports suggesting otherwise. Farasatkhah argued that only a quarter of the national budget is allocated to empower low-income groups, which is insufficient to reduce poverty levels.
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