UN Warns World Is On Track for as Much as 3.1 Degrees Celsius of Warming |
Countries’ current plans and policies have the world on track for between 2.6 and 3.1°C (4.7 and 5.6°F) of global warming this century, UN scientists warned in a report released yesterday. It comes just weeks ahead of this year’s UN climate conference in Azerbaijan and months ahead of a February 2025 deadline for countries to submit their new action plans under the Paris Agreement. UN environment director Inger Andersen called for “dramatically stronger” plans to curb climate catastrophe; the updated climate plans would need to see a 57 percent emissions reduction by 2035 to meet the more ambitious Paris goal for limiting warming.
While last year’s UN climate summit in Dubai included a landmark pledge for countries to transition away from fossil fuels—the first-ever explicit mention of fossil fuels in a UN summit text—global greenhouse gas emissions are not on track to decline much this decade, if at all, the report found, and even hit a record fifty-seven gigatons last year. If measures outlined in countries’ current national plans are fully implemented, which would require a dramatic uptick in climate finance, the world would still warm 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels. That blows past even the less optimistic target of 2°C set in the Paris agreement. (Politico, NPR, NYT)
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“The climate insidiously infects these other [foreign policy] issues,” CFR Senior Fellow Varun Sivaram says at this event on the nexus of climate and defense. “The World Bank projects two hundred million climate refugees by mid-century...By 2100, five to seven feet of sea level rise is not out of the realm of possibility—one to two meters—in our own national climate assessment.”
“Even though renewable energy sources like wind and solar are growing rapidly around the world, demand for electricity has been rising even faster, which means countries are still burning more fossil fuels each year. Geopolitical conflicts, from the U.S.-China rivalry to war in places like Ukraine and Gaza, have made international cooperation on climate change harder. And rich countries have failed to keep their financial promises to help poor countries shift away from oil, gas and coal,” the New York Times’ Brad Plumer writes.
In this Backgrounder, CFR’s Clara Fong examines the global push for climate finance.
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Middle East and North Africa |
New Gaza Cease-Fire, Hostage Talks to Begin in Coming Days in Doha |
U.S. and Israeli envoys will take part in the talks and Washington will also send $135 million in additional aid to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and the broader region, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. He added that Washington has seen Israel make progress toward allowing more aid into Gaza following a recent U.S. letter sent to Israeli counterparts, but it “is not yet enough.” (WaPo, Department of State)
U.S./Saudi Arabia: The U.S. State Department approved the possible sale of $440 million of missiles to Riyadh, the Department of Defense said. The Pentagon has issued a notification to Congress of the potential sale. (Anadolu)
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Japan to Hold Parliamentary Elections Sunday |
Japanese voters will choose new members of the lower legislative house on Sunday after new Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru called a snap election. The vote will test the strength of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which had been bogged by financial scandals under the previous prime minister. (Nikkei)
China/Hong Kong: The Hong Kong unit of bank HSBC is joining a Chinese cross-border payments system that is an alternative to the globally dominant SWIFT system, a move that will make it easier for clients to trade and invest in renminbi. (FT)
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India, Germany Leaders Talk Ukraine, Economic Ties |
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed agreements today on labor exchange and green technologies in New Delhi, while Scholz said he is pushing for the European Union to finalize a trade deal with India in “months rather than years.” He also said that Germany supports India working “for a lasting and fair peace in Ukraine.” (Bloomberg)
Afghanistan/China: China will offer tariff-free trade to the Taliban in Afghanistan, its envoy to the country posted yesterday on social media. While China has not formally recognized the Taliban’s government, Afghanistan exported $64 million worth of goods to China last year, nearly 90 percent of them pine nuts. Taliban officials have said they want to export more minerals. (Reuters)
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CFR’s Robert McMahon and Carla Anne Robbins discuss France seeking international aid for Lebanon, Japan holding a snap election, Georgia going to the polls in an election that could shift the country toward Russia, and more. |
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South Africa Unveils Proposal for Alternative Jobs for Coal Workers |
Under the plan announced today, workers would transition away from coal mining to work in sectors like renewable energy, tourism, and agriculture. The plan calls for investments in projects in those sectors from wealthy countries. (Bloomberg)
CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo explores the coal vs. clean power tensions in South Africa.
Uganda: Former commander in the rebel group Lord’s Resistance Army Thomas Kwoyelo was sentenced to forty years in prison today for a slew of war crimes. His conviction was the first time Uganda’s justice system had tried an officer of that rank. (Reuters)
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Kyiv Says North Korean Forces Reached Russia’s Kursk |
North Korean fighters have been detected in the Kursk region where Ukrainian forces pushed into Russia in recent months, Ukrainian intelligence said yesterday. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not deny that North Korean forces were in Russia when asked about it yesterday at the BRICS summit. Ukrainian forces held around 600 to 700 square kilometers (230 to 270 square miles) in Kursk in October, down from 1,000 in August following their incursion, the Financial Times reported. (CNN, FT)
At CFR this week, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd dissected the implications of North Korean troops in Russia.
Georgia: Authorities raided the homes yesterday of disinformation researchers for the U.S. think tank the Atlantic Council, part of what nongovernmental organizations say is a crackdown on critical voices ahead of tomorrow’s parliamentary elections. Georgia’s limbo between Russia and the West is a main issue in that vote. (Politico)
This In Brief by Marc Goedemans looks at what Georgia’s Russia-like foreign agent law means for the country.
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Canadian Government Introduces Reduction in Immigration Targets |
Ottawa plans to lower the number of new permanent residents in the country from 485,000 this year to 395,000 next year and down to 365,000 in 2027. The move is intended to attract more skilled workers and address strains in the country’s housing supply, the immigration minister said. (CBC) Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland spoke at CFR yesterday on how economy and democracy intersect.
Haiti: Gang attacks in the past week caused more than ten thousand Haitians to flee their homes, the United Nations said yesterday. The number of internally displaced people in the country at the start of September stood at double its level from the six months prior. (Reuters)
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Trump Criticizes Trade Relations With EU, Calling Bloc ‘Mini-China’ |
Former President Donald Trump cited the U.S. trade deficit with the bloc in a radio interview yesterday with his claim that Europeans “don’t take” products like cars and agricultural goods. European officials have been preparing for a potential trade war with Washington should Trump be elected, planning to retaliate in a stronger and more coordinated way than they did to tariffs on European Union (EU) goods during his presidency, Politico reported. (AFP, Politico)
Ana Swanson and CFR’s Ted Alden discuss on The President’s Inbox podcast the opportunities and constraints that the next U.S. president will confront on U.S. trade policy.
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