Daily News Brief

October 24, 2024

Top of the Agenda

China, Iran, and Russia are pressing their efforts to interfere in the election as the vote approaches, Microsoft said in a report yesterday; it follows a Tuesday statement by an official from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence that Russian operatives created and spread false content meant to smear Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz. U.S. intelligence officials say the integrity of the vote itself is not at risk, but have issued repeated warnings against digital influence operations as well as an alert on Tuesday that Russia and Iran could try to instigate post-election violence.  

Microsoft, for its part, flagged in its report that Chinese actors are targeting down-ballot Republicans with online influence operations. It said that an Iranian hacker group performed limited probing of U.S. election-related websites in swing states and reconnaissance of U.S. media outlets and that their findings “suggest Iran is gearing up for additional influence operations close to Election Day.” Russia, meanwhile, has aimed to spread deepfake content targeting Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, the report said. (Microsoft, CNN, AP)

Analysis

“While there certainly have been attempts by China, by Russia, by Iran to involve themselves in our electoral ecosystem in terms of information, and while we are certainly—the U.S. government and major companies—are always certainly monitoring cyberthreats to U.S. electoral systems, in fact there’s no evidence at all that this election would be any less secure or any less credible than any that we have had before. In fact, efforts are probably even greater to secure it and protect it than they have been before. But the feeling, the loss of trust—we all know that once you lose trust, building it back is so incredibly hard to do," CFR Senior Fellow Kat Duffy said at this event on Technology and Electoral Dynamics.

“To adequately address foreign influence in the domestic politics of the United States and its democratic allies, malign foreign influence should be defined and assessed, countermeasures developed, and the risks associated with those responses carefully evaluated. Successful defense against malign foreign influence in democracies will resonate with a wider global audience that embraces self-determination—the right of a country to determine its own future political path,” CFR Senior Fellow Miles Kahler writes in this new report.

Pacific Rim

Leaders including the king of England and Prime Minister Keir Starmer traveled to Samoa for the first Commonwealth heads of government meeting to be held in a Blue Pacific small island developing state. Starmer said reparations is not on the country’s agenda and it would not apologize for slavery. Notably, leaders from India and South Africa skipped this year’s summit in favor of attending the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. (Reuters, The Commonwealth, Politico)

U.S./China: Chinese laser firm Hesai Technology is the latest company preparing a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Defense for what it says is unfair placement on a sanctions list. It denies making military-linked goods. An unnamed Defense Department official told the Financial Times that Hesai meets the criteria for being blacklisted without giving details. (FT)

South and Central Asia

Berlin’s warming to India comes as it is trying to diversify from its economic dependence on China. Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrives today and is due to discuss economic cooperation and facilitating skilled migration with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Germany plans to widen skilled work visas for Indians from around twenty thousand to around ninety thousand per year, Germany’s ambassador to India said. (DW, Mint)

Bangladesh: The country’s interim government banned the student wing of the party of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted in antigovernment protests in early August. The government marked the group as a “terrorist organization” that was responsible for violence, harassment, and exploitation of public resources. (Reuters)

CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick questions whether Bangladesh’s interim government can truly make a turnaround.  

Middle East and North Africa

France pledged upwards of $100 million in humanitarian aid to kick off today’s conference in Paris, which aims to raise the $426 million that the United Nations has said is needed in urgent humanitarian aid for the country. Economic losses from the Israeli bombing of Lebanon could top $20 billion, an independent task force of Lebanese economists and public policy specialists found. (AP, L’Orient)

For Think Global Health, CFR’s Christina Bouri details the toll of psychological warfare unfolding in Lebanon. 

U.S./Saudi Arabia: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed efforts to end the wars in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh yesterday as well as efforts to end the conflict in Sudan. (Bloomberg, Department of State)

Sub-Saharan Africa

President Bola Tinubu sacked five ministers, reassigned ten, and newly appointed seven, a spokesperson said. The ministers of finance and national planning will keep their posts despite a cost-of-living crisis in the country. Annual inflation currently stands higher than 32 percent. (Reuters)

Mozambique: Election authorities are due today to release the final result of an October 9 presidential contest. Independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane has called for his supporters to amass a nationwide strike against what he says is a fraudulent result. Mondlane’s lawyer was murdered over the weekend, and protests this week were met with police launching tear gas on demonstrators. (Bloomberg)

This Africa in Transition blog by CFR expert Michelle Gavin explains how Mozambique’s election is unleashing cynicism in the country. 

Europe

The targeted strikes on a separatist Kurdish group in Iraq and Syria came hours after an attack on an aerospace contractor in Turkey’s defense sector that killed five people. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack on Turkey, but Ankara blamed the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). (WSJ, AP)

U.S./Ukraine: Washington signed a deal to finalize its $20 billion portion of a $50 billion loan package that Western allies are putting together for Ukraine with the backing of frozen Russian assets. The Joe Biden administration wants $10 billion of the U.S. support to go to military aid, which would require U.S. congressional approval. (Politico)

Americas

The World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) plan to provide direct financing and mobilize private lending to generate the amount, Argentina’s economy ministry said yesterday. The funds will go to education, energy services, and industrial development. (Reuters)

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Diana Roy details Argentina’s struggle for stability.

Ecuador/Spain: Spanish police arrested two men allegedly behind a gang attack on an Ecuadorian television station earlier this year. Ecuadorian officials helped in their arrest, its national police commander said. (Bloomberg)

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