View this post on the web at [link removed]

“Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” -Yogi Berra/unknown
Predictions are fun because they test your mental models of the world. People with great mental models still get stuff wrong. But as a general matter, if you understand a particular domain (e.g. politics) you should be able to say what’s going to happen and why. I learn a lot from doing this. If I’m wrong, I learn even more.
Most people in politics “predict” their side will win. This is not prediction; it is a wish.
The below is not necessarily what I want to happen. This is what I believe will happen and why — regardless of what I want:
1. White House: Trump wins and becomes the 47th president of the United States.
2. U.S. Senate: Republicans take the majority by 1-2 seats, or it’s a 50-50 tie, and Vice President Vance becomes the tie-breaking vote as president of the Senate.
3. U.S. House: Democrats take the majority by 2-3 seats. Speaker Jeffries takes the gavel.
Overall: Divided government — Trump presidency, narrowly Republican Senate, narrowly Democratic House.
—
1. White House: Trump wins
For my analysis of the presidential race and prediction that Trump will eventually win the election on the economy, see here – The Occam’s Razor Election. [ [link removed] ]
2. U.S. Senate: 51/52-seat Republican majority OR 50-50 tie with Vice President Vance as the tie-breaking vote.
Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, and Elissa Slotkin — all Democrats — will win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, respectively, because they are (1) very skilled candidates (2) deeply in touch with their voters, and (3) very well-funded.
Baldwin and Casey are also incumbents, which helps.
Slotkin is a sitting Congresswoman running for an open Senate seat, which is almost as good.
I expected Midwestern Dems to increasingly break from the Biden-Harris record on the economy as we got closer to Election Day. And that’s precisely what they are doing now. [ [link removed] ] This will help them win, even if Harris loses.
Senator Sherrod Brown will very, very narrowly win in Ohio. Brown is an economic populist [ [link removed] ] who champions “the dignity of work” [ [link removed] ] — not a typical, establishment Democrat. And he’s a well-liked incumbent, while his challenger, Bernie Moreno, is relatively unknown and unimpressive.
In Ohio, Wisconsin, and PA, Republicans have recruited independently wealthy millionaires to challenge incumbent Dems, because they can self-fund their campaigns. This is a mistake. They’re mostly stiff on the campaign trail, have weak local ties, and might struggle to connect with voters.
Senator Jon Tester [ [link removed] ], as much personal affection and hope as I have for his brilliant career, will lose in Montana. It is a changed state with more Republicans today, partly due to in-migration and partly due to a polarized national environment post-Trump. And the Biden-Harris record on inflation and immigration is too big a cross to bear in Montana, even for a star politician.
The Republican challenger, 38-year-old Tim Sheehy, is also an independently wealthy millionaire with weak ties to the state and an awkward campaign style. But he’s a veteran, and his partisan advantage is probably too great.
Rep. Ruben Gallego will beat Kari Lake in Arizona [ [link removed] ] because he is (1) a skilled candidate (2) deeply in touch with his electorate, including many moderate “John McCain Republicans” and (3) very well-funded.
Gallego has outworked, outraised, and out-messaged his competition, including incumbent Sen. Krysten Sinema, who dropped out in March. [ [link removed] ]
Kari Lake is attractive and charismatic, but has alienated moderate Republicans [ [link removed] ] and comes across like a kook.
Trump copycats always struggle down ballot, because Diet Coke in a can is never as good as Mexican Coke in the glass bottle – i.e., the real thing.
In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen [ [link removed] ] will narrowly beat Republican challenger Sam Brown, thanks to her fundraising advantage, incumbency, built-in union infrastructure, and cross-over appeal with Republicans.
Former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is a very good and popular candidate for Senate in Maryland, but national politics is different, and Maryland is too blue for him to flip. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win here.
Similarly, incumbent Republicans Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rick Scott (Florida) have real challengers, but will beat them back because these are still red states. Scott wins easily, Cruz barely.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) is retiring and will be replaced by an obese, no-show, almost billionaire Republican governor, amazingly named Jim Justice. [ [link removed] ]
The tie comes from something that is still a longshot, but one I’m willing to bet on: Dan Osborn – independent populist – will unseat Republican Deb Fischer in Nebraska. [ [link removed] ]
Fischer is what Zillenials like me, raised on the internet and video games, call an NPC [ [link removed] ] – a non-player character.
She’s fake as hell and just goes along with whatever is happening in DC and has no real ideas or backbone of her own. Stylistically, the opposite of Trump. In a place like Nebraska, that’s incredibly unattractive. So she really might lose.
Again, this election isn’t just about D vs. R; it’s populism vs. the establishment. [ [link removed] ] Someday journalists and “experts” will realize this, and stop being surprised that a state like Nebraska might elect both Trump and Osborn. (Duh: they’re both anti-establishment economic populists.)
That means Dems lose two seats: West Virginia and Montana. And they gain one independent, Osborn, who will caucus with Democrats, like Sens. Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and Angus King (Maine) already do.
The result is a 50-50 Senate with the next vice president as the tie-breaking vote. Dramatic, I know.
But it’s more likely that I am biased, and overestimating Senate Democrats’ ability to win where I believe Trump will also win (e.g., Pennsylvania). So Republicans probably get a 1-2 seat majority outright.
3. U.S. House: Dems take the majority by 2-3 seats. Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker.
Perhaps more on this later, but here are my top line perceptions:
Democrats have [ [link removed] ]a lot [ [link removed] ]more money, [ [link removed] ] and fundraising and ad spend matter the most in down-ballot congressional races, where most voters don’t know either candidate.
Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House leader, is a serious and formidable person. I’ve met him. He’s a pro. Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker, is performing admirably for a noob [ [link removed] ], but still looks to me like a deer in the headlights.
Republican House members have behaved like deranged cats for the past two years, and there will be a price to pay for their childishness and incompetence.
Candidate quality matters. [ [link removed] ] Democrats simply have better congressional candidates than Republicans along any objective rubric: biography, resume, likability, message, and campaign skills. All else equal, better candidates tend to win.
Many of the competitive House seats are in affluent suburbs, including in blue states like California and New York, and Democrats do well in suburbs for three reasons:
Education – the biggest predictor of voting Dem these days is holding at least a 4-year college degree.
Assets – if you own a home and a 401k, you think the Biden-Harris record on the economy is good; if you live paycheck-to-paycheck, you think it is horrible.
Abortion bans – when you invite the wrath of the suburban wine moms, as Republicans have done, God help you.
A final prediction within a prediction:
As time goes on, if Harris continues to lose momentum, expect Democratic House candidates in battleground districts to pitch themselves as a “check and balance on a Trump presidency.” Voters will like this. Many swing voters are reluctantly voting for a second Trump term, but still don’t want to give him total control of Congress; they might split their ticket in a way we haven’t recently seen.
Where I could be wrong: if Trump really is doing well, as I believe he is, he may have ‘coattails’ that deny Democrats even the House majority via California and New York. I don’t think that will happen. But, again, it could be wishful thinking for me to think it won’t.
See you in 13 days…

Unsubscribe [link removed]?