The Latest from the Prospect ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
??
View this email in your browser [link removed]
**OCTOBER 23, 2024**
On the Prospect website
Turning Around the Hudson Valley [link removed]
Democrats performed badly north of New York City in critical House races. Can they do better this year? BY TOBY JAFFE
[link removed] Crypto-Backed California Republican Attacks Opponent for Owning Crypto [link removed]
It's part of a Vietnamese-language red-baiting campaign by Rep. Michelle Steel, who faces a stiff challenge in California's 45th Congressional District against veteran and pharmacy owner Derek Tran. BY DAVID DAYEN
[link removed] Science Is Political [link removed]
Norms are made to be broken in a time of emergency; so too for the idea that science must float above politics. BY RICK PERLSTEIN
Dayen on TAP
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
**** Off the Radar
Some congressional races you might want to know about
Like pretty much everybody reading this, I refresh the polling averages [link removed] to see what the big brains think about the presidential election. But I don't feel a lot of agency around the outcome. Each side has more than enough money to display their message, maybe a hundred times over. And in races with universal name ID, money doesn't travel that far. The question of turnout, and whether Kamala Harris's focused effort [link removed] (I was told that the campaign made 4.5 million phone calls to the battleground states just over last weekend) will outpace the Elon Musk-led fraud-riddled approach [link removed], seems important to me. But we're talking about a coin flip at this point.
By contrast, there are several races far outside the national spotlight that are looking very interesting heading into Election Day. These are races where your money and effort actually can make a difference. Here are a few:
NE-Sen: We're going to have more on this race soon, but yet another poll [link removed] shows independent Dan Osborn leading incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska. We first profiled Osborn six months ago [link removed], believing that it was an important test of populist messaging [link removed] in deep-red states. Because he has not committed to joining any party caucus in Congress, Osborn is not benefiting from any party's support. Meanwhile, the Republican Senate campaign arm is pouring millions of dollars [link removed] into the state. Given the situation in Montana [link removed] and tight races elsewhere, there's no bigger paradigm-shifting race out there than this one, even if there's no guarantee that it will determine Senate control.
FL-13: Two independent polls, one from late August [link removed] and another from last week [link removed], show Democrat Whitney Fox either tied or slightly ahead of incumbent GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, despite a respondent base that was fairly strongly Republican and largely older. Luna, a kind of MAGA influencer [link removed] in her first term in Congress, has been trying to dodge the big issue on Florida's ballot, a constitutional amendment restoring reproductive rights. She has refused to say how she'll vote [link removed] on the ballot measure. The district is based in St. Petersburg, which was near the touchdown site of Hurricane Milton earlier this month. So modeling the electorate is a challenge. Neither party campaign arm has spent a dime here.
[link removed]
AZ-02: Another shock poll [link removed] showed Jonathan Nez, former president of the Navajo Nation, tied with first-term Freedom Caucus Republican Eli Crane, who was one of the votes that removed Kevin McCarthy as Speaker last year. This race has also not drawn any interest from the national parties. It's a big rural district with a large Native American population, and Nez has been outraising Crane in campaign donations. His latest ad [link removed] goes hyperlocal, focusing on water access to the area (and touting his work with Donald Trump on the issue as Navajo Nation president).
CA-49: Three-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Mike Levin has historically won comfortably in this suburban San Diego district, but by a little bit less each time. Quietly, House Majority PAC (the main PAC for national House Democrats) made a $460,000 ad buy [link removed] earlier this month, all of it opposing Republican Matt Gunderson. When I went to Orange County last week [link removed], I saw Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA) at a canvass launch, and in her litany of California races she mentioned Levin. He wasn't always on that list. Apparently, there's some slippage here. National Republicans released an internal poll [link removed] showing Levin up by just a point, though independent polling has showed a wider spread.
These obscure races could determine the balance of power in Washington, and whether Democrats or Republicans have a good night.
~ DAVID DAYEN
**Follow David Dayen on Twitter** [link removed] [link removed]
or Bluesky Social [link removed]
[link removed]
To receive this newsletter directly in your inbox, click here to subscribe.?? [link removed]
Click to Share this Newsletter
[link removed]
??
[link removed]
??
[link removed]
??
[link removed]
??
[link removed]
YOUR TAX DEDUCTIBLE DONATION SUPPORTS INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM [link removed]
The American Prospect, Inc., 1225 I Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC xxxxxx, United States
Copyright (c) 2024 The American Prospect. All rights reserved.
To opt out of American Prospect membership messaging, click here [link removed].
To manage your newsletter preferences, click here [link removed].
To unsubscribe from all American Prospect emails, including newsletters, click here [link removed].
