Washington, D.C. (October 23, 2024) – A new Center for Immigration Studies analysis answers the question: how many non-citizens would have to vote to affect the 2024 presidential election? Despite federal laws prohibiting non-citizens from voting, concerns remain about the enforcement of these laws and their potential impact on close state races. Given how large the non-citizen population has become and the narrow margins in many states, even if only a small share of non-citizens voted it could change the outcome in a few states.  Census Bureau data collected earlier this year — unadjusted for potential undercount — indicates that there are 23.2 million voting-age non-citizens in the country, approximately half of whom are illegal immigrants.

Steven Camarota, the Center’s director of research and co-author of the analysis, stated, “Just because it is mathematically possible for non-citizens to decide a state’s presidential outcome, that is in no way proof it will actually happen. However, our report does illustrate the potential seriousness of the non-citizen voting issue.”

Key Findings:

• In 12 states and Nebraska’s 2nd district, the number of voting-age non-citizens exceeds the margin of victory from the 2020 election.
• In states like Georgia and Arizona, as little as 1.5% and 1.71% of non-citizens, respectively, would need to vote to equal the state winner’s margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election.
• Larger percentages would be required in North Carolina (10.26%), Nevada (12.98%), Pennsylvania (15.61%), Wisconsin (15.96%), Texas (18.01%), Florida (19.23%), Michigan (56.87%), Nebraska’s 2nd district (63.63%), New Jersey (72.96%), Virginia (79.54%), and New Mexico (82.65%).
• All of the above percentages come with the important caveat that they assume that all non-citizens vote the same way. 

Voting Preferences:
 
Exit polling data in the past showed that two-thirds of naturalized citizens voted for the Democratic candidate. If this pattern holds for non-citizen in 2024 it would require, for example, 4.49 percent of non-citizens to vote in Georgia and 5.13 percent to vote in Arizona for the net partisan impact to exceed the winning margin in the last presidential election. Link to Excel Spreadsheet with Adult Non-Citizens by State