October 22, 2024

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NBA salaries have skyrocketed in recent years, and that has led to what once seemed impossible: A player currently in the league will almost certainly reach $1 billion in on-court earnings. We go through the salary math, how long it will take, and identify the likeliest candidates. At the top of the list: two opponents from last year’s Finals.

— Colin Salao [[link removed]], Eric Fisher [[link removed]], and David Rumsey [[link removed]]

The NBA’s First Billion-Dollar Player Is Inevitable. Who Is He? [[link removed]]

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

It was not long ago that social media was abuzz after Mike Conley received the largest contract in NBA history [[link removed]].

Conley, who in 2016 had never made an All-Star team, received a five-year deal worth $153 million. Fast-forward to 2024, and Conley’s $30.6 million average annual value would be good for 65th in the league. [[link removed]]

LeBron James, who is entering his 22nd year, will be the first player in NBA history to breach the half-billion-dollar mark in career earnings following this season [[link removed]]. But with salaries continuing to rise, driven by exponential increases to media-rights deals [[link removed]], the first player to hit $1 billion across their career is already on the horizon.

How Salaries Are Determined

The maximum NBA salary a player can receive is 35% of the salary cap—often referred to as a supermax deal. Players who have signed the supermax range from three-time MVP Nikola Jokić to three-time All-Star Bradley Beal.

The NBA’s salary cap is determined by the percentage of league revenue assigned to the players in the collective bargaining agreement, which is around 50%. In 2016, the league’s revenue spiked due to a new media-rights deal that was three times as lucrative as its previous one—and it caused the salary cap to increase by 34.5% in one year.

This cap spike gave the 73-win Warriors the opportunity to sign Kevin Durant on a two-year, $54.3 million deal.

The NBA fixed this rule by instituting cap smoothing, which limits the year-over-year increase in salary cap to just 10%. Between 2021 and 2023, the cap increased by the maximum 10%, though this slowed to just 3.36% entering this season.

The Billion-Dollar Projection

The top two candidates to theoretically reach the $1 billion career earnings mark are Jayson Tatum and Luka Dončić—and they could do it as soon as the 2034–35 season.

Tatum and Dončić, who were drafted in 2017 and 2018, respectively, share similar qualities in that they are superstar players in their mid-20s and expected to be at the top of the league beyond this decade.

To hit a billion in earnings, both players would have to receive two supermax contracts (Tatum already signed his first in July at $315 million over five years). The second deal would come after each has entered his 30s.

It’s worth mentioning that theoretically, Tatum’s fellow 2017 draft class alumnus De’Aaron Fox could also hit the billion-dollar mark under the same conditions—though he is not on pace for the same career trajectory as the two MVP candidates.

Other than the consistent 10% increases, other factors could alter the timing of the league’s first billion-dollar players.

The NBA’s CBA is set to expire by the end of the 2029–30 season, meaning revenue-sharing and cap smoothing could be altered and could affect the projection for maximum salaries. It may be a long shot, but this could even push forward the timeline for a billion-dollar player—if cap smoothing or revenue share favors the players.

Tatum and Dončić may also be convinced to sign shorter deals or take pay cuts to improve the rosters around them, similar to what Jalen Brunson did with the Knicks this offseason [[link removed]].

Regardless of whether it happens during the 2034–2035 season—or whether it’s Dončić, Tatum, or a younger star like Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero or Victor Wembanyama—these calculations show the NBA’s first billion-dollar player is coming, and he’s almost certainly already in the league.

Rays Focus on Tampa-Area Options After ‘Substantial’ Tropicana Damage [[link removed]]

USA TODAY

The state of the hurricane-damaged Tropicana Field [[link removed]] is still being assessed, and it could be several weeks before the extent of the stadium damage is fully understood. But at least one thing thus far is certain: MLB and the Rays seek to stay in the Tampa area during the 2025 season.

As the Rays and the league consider various options for a temporary venue [[link removed]], MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said the clear preference is to keep the club in its existing market.

“We’re hopeful that we can figure out something [locally] for them, and that the repairs can be done in a way that allows them to resume playing,” Manfred said on The Varsity podcast [[link removed]].

“The easiest thing is always to stay in the market where the clubs are anchored, if we can manage it,” he said.

Multiple Options

The commissioner’s sentiment is advanced by the large number of minor league and spring training options in the Tampa area and just beyond, including the Rays’ own complex in Port Charlotte, Fla., and ESPN Wide World of Sports in Orlando. Any of those facilities will require a series of physical upgrades to bring them up to MLB standards, but similar efforts were made in Buffalo and Dunedin, Fla., during the COVID-19 pandemic, and are happening again in Sacramento to accommodate the relocating A’s [[link removed]].

Two more geographically distant options have already been removed from consideration for the Rays’ 2025 season: Durham, N.C., site of the Rays’ top minor-league affiliate, and Montreal, where club owner Stu Sternberg previously proposed playing on a part-time basis.

“As the proud Triple-A affiliate of the Tampa Bay Rays, we are always ready to support our parent club,” the Durham Bulls said in a statement [[link removed]]. “Currently, there have been no discussions about hosting them in Durham, and we do not anticipate hosting them for a full season due to schedules overlapping and other logistical challenges.”

Field Conditions

As that Tropicana Field assessment continues, Manfred said the early reports are not good, calling the overall damage “substantial.” That’s not surprising given Hurricane Milton tore off nearly all of the stadium’s Teflon-coated fiberglass roof. The facility is also not constructed for outdoor use and does not have a field-drainage system.

The roof damage is “particularly problematic in a building that was not designed to drain because it was a covered building, and in a climate where it rains a lot,” he said. “It’s going to be a challenge.”

The city of St. Petersburg, which owns Tropicana Field, has filed an insurance claim, and in addition to the ongoing structural analysis of the venue, a firm has been hired to remove the remaining portions of the roof. The Rays, meanwhile, are set to open a new stadium in 2028 [[link removed]].

“We were at a path where the useful life of that facility was short—really costly repairs and a short life [span],” Manfred said. “I don’t need to connect the dots there for you. That’s another complication.”

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Georgia-Texas Season’s Most-Viewed CFB Game, Another ABC Win [[link removed]]

Brett Patzke-Imagn Images

Saturday’s much-hyped Georgia-Texas matchup [[link removed]] delivered the most-watched game of the college football season, and continued ABC’s dominance in TV ratings, thanks to the SEC’s expansion and the network’s new deal with the conference.

Final viewership numbers showed 13.2 million people tuned in to ABC for Georgia’s 30–15 upset in Austin [[link removed]] on Saturday night, more than any other matchup so far this fall. And before that in the afternoon, Tennessee’s 24–17 win over Alabama drew 10.8 million viewers on the same network, good for the third-most-watched contest of the season.

Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC this summer, and Disney took over the conference’s game of the week from CBS. That combination has led to the SEC on ABC drawing the three highest TV audiences through eight weeks, and eight of the top 10.

For now, NBC and Fox are each cracking the top five, too:

13.2 million: Georgia-Texas, ABC 12 million: Georgia-Alabama, ABC 10.8 million: Alabama-Tennessee, ABC 10.2 million: Ohio State–Oregon, NBC 9.35 million: Texas-Michigan, Fox No Going Back for CBS

Last year, SEC on CBS games accounted for 12 of the 50 most-watched college football broadcasts [[link removed]] of the regular season (including conference championships), with six drawing seven million viewers or more. So far this season, the highest audience for CBS is 6.3 million for Michigan’s 27–24 victory over USC.

CBS was previously paying roughly $50 million annually for the SEC’s game of the week. Disney now pays $300 million for that contract, pushing the company’s total annual payment for the conference’s exclusive rights to more than $700 million.

ONE BIG FIG Finishing Strong

Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

2.15 million

The number of viewers for Game 5 of the WNBA Finals, marking the league championship series’ most-watched game of the 2000s. The New York Liberty beat the Minnesota Lynx 67–62 in overtime. ESPN aired the game, with stiff sports competition coming from Sunday Night Football on NBC and Game 6 of the National League Championship Series on FS1.

Front Office Sports reporter Margaret Fleming has more on the WNBA’s TV ratings here [[link removed]].

STATUS REPORT Three Up, One Push

Erich Schlegel-Imagn Images

Formula One ⬆ The United States Grand Prix, part of the wild sports weekend in Austin, drew 1.3 million viewers on ABC on Sunday, up from 1.2 million last year.

NBC ⬆ The NFL has flexed Colts (4–3) at Vikings (5–1) into the Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup on Nov. 3. Jaguars (2–5) at Eagles (4–2) moves out of prime time and into the 4:05 p.m. ET slot on CBS.

Apple TV+ ⬆ The streamer is working on a docuseries following the Yankees-Dodgers World Series.

MLB game speed ⬆⬇ The average time of a nine-inning contest in the League Championship Series rose 12 minutes to 3:16 [[link removed]] as the Dodgers scored an NLCS-record 46 runs, but the overall postseason average has dropped by two minutes to 3:00. This is the second year MLB is using a pitch clock.

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Conversation Starters Lionel Messi is collaborating with rapper Bad Bunny for a new Adidas soccer cleat. Check it out [[link removed]]. Justin Jefferson and Anthony Edwards recreated an iconic photo of former Vikings and Timberwolves stars Randy Moss and Kevin Garnett for ESPN. Take a look [[link removed]]. Matthew McConaughey had thoughts on Texas fans throwing debris onto the field against Georgia on Saturday night: “Not cool. Bogey move.” Read his full statement [[link removed]]. Editors’ Picks Gabby Thomas Wants Track to Evolve Past an ‘Amateur Sport Like We Are Now’ [[link removed]]by Margaret Fleming [[link removed]]She discussed “Sprint” and Athlos on “Front Office Sports Today.” Meet the Man Behind NBA Centel, Who Keeps Fooling Fans on Twitter [[link removed]]by A.J. Perez [[link removed]]The owner of the parody account said he didn’t expect it to gain as much traction as it did. The Future of College Sports Hangs in the Balance With the 2024 Elections [[link removed]]by Amanda Christovich [[link removed]]The election could decide the fate of athlete employment and amateurism. Advertise [[link removed]] Awards [[link removed]] Learning [[link removed]] Events [[link removed]] Video [[link removed]] Podcast [[link removed]] Written by Colin Salao [[link removed]], Eric Fisher [[link removed]], David Rumsey [[link removed]] Edited by Or Moyal [[link removed]], Catherine Chen [[link removed]]

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