Greetings, John!

Welcome to the October issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, highlighting the work of our award-winning political research team. 

Our research team works on projects like state legislative data and district targeting, understanding what motivates voters and volunteers downballot, and collecting, analyzing, and reporting on state-level data and trends. This research powers all of Sister District’s political strategy and programs.

In this month’s States & Stats:

• We’re making our final push before Election Day! Keep reading for a round-up of key findings from our recent research emphasizing why it’s so important to vote all the way down the ballot. 

I hope this newsletter is interesting and informative. And I welcome your feedback — let me know if there are particular topics or issues you’d like us to cover.

📊 Deep Dive

Election Day is November 5, and the next 2 weeks are our last opportunity to not only turn out voters, but to encourage them to vote down the ballot for state legislative candidates. As you’ve read in previous issues of States & Stats, Sister District has conducted extensive research on roll-off — when a person votes in the race at the top of the ballot, but then skips voting for state legislative races. 

We’ve compiled a round-up of our most important findings to make the case for voting all the way down the ballot.

State legislative races can be decided by handfuls of votes, and especially in chambers with slim partisan majorities, the outcomes of individual races can have huge consequences:

• In 2022, Democrat Melissa Cerrato won her race by just 63 votes—and flipped the entire Pennsylvania state house blue.

• In 2020, Democrats would have needed to win just 2 more seats to gain control of the Arizona state senate. In the 2 races with the narrowest margins, Democratic candidates lost by a total of 11,201 votes. In those same districts, 12,268 more votes were cast for Joe Biden than for the Democratic state legislative candidates. 

• In the Minnesota state senate, winning just 2 more seats in 2020 would have given Democrats control of the chamber. The Democratic candidates in these districts lost by only 1,813 votes. But there were 5,803 more votes for Biden than for these two Democratic state senate candidates.

These real-world examples show clearly why the votes “lost” to roll-off matter. To better understand the roots of the behavior, here’s what our research has found about which voters roll off and why:

• Voters most likely to roll-off are women, voters of color, and young voters.

• Voters, especially roll-off voters, have massive knowledge gaps about what state legislatures do, including their primary role in abortion policy.

• Roll-off voters feel low confidence in voting and low agency in the value of their vote (they feel their vote for state legislature “doesn’t matter”).

So, when you’re talking to voters, what can you say to help prevent roll-off in state legislative races? In our new Downballot Voter Toolkit, we provide guidance and examples of effective messaging:

• State legislators have the authority to decide extremely important issues, including reproductive freedom. Many voters care deeply about these issues, but simply do not realize how much power the states hold.

• State legislative races can be won or lost by razor-thin margins, so at this level of the ballot, every vote can make the difference. This message helps voters over the hurdle of feeling like their vote for state legislature doesn’t matter (low agency). 

The Downballot Voter Toolkit also contains free resources, including static and video ads readily available to download and share. Between now and Election Day, use these tools to empower voters to vote all the way down the ballot - we will be too!

Do you have any questions about this deep dive? Have an interesting study or report you’d like us to highlight? Hit reply and let us know

📝 Data Digest

ICYMI

• Gaby joined the Good Things from Lemonada Media podcast for two episodes to talk about downballot roll-off, how those lost votes can make all the difference in state legislative races and the critical importance of voting in state legislative races. Listen here:

  • Sep 24, 2024: Don’t Think Your Vote Matters? Think Again

  • Oct 1, 2024: Skipping State Races? Here's What You're Missing

• Oct 1: Sweep Salon Event Recording. Panelists MI Rep. Jaime Churches, VA Del. Alex Askew and Isa Alomran from Data For Progress discuss Why Voting Down Ballot Matters.

• Oct 15: Fireside Chat Event Recording. David Daley joined Sister District for a conversation about his new book, Antidemocratic.

Remember — don’t ride the pollercoaster. We already know what’s going to happen – it’s going to be tight in the big handful of states that matter most, up and down the ballot. But the end of this story is not yet written — we are, each of us, writing it right now. Between now and election day, every voter we talk to, help plan to vote, and get out to the polls will matter. We have the opportunity and absolute obligation to help write this ending. Let’s go!!

See you on the flipside.

In solidarity,
Gaby

P.S. Your generosity fuels our work. Donate now to empower us to build progressive change.

Paid for by Sister District Action Network and not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Donations to Sister District Project, a 527 organization, are not tax deductible as charitable contributions for federal income tax purposes.