Who's Winning?

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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #1128
10/21/2024
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1) Who's Winning?

We don't get involved in electioneering, and we don't support candidates for office. But as a public service, we thought we'd give you the last betting lines on the election as of this weekend.

Republicans are now at about 58% odds to win the presidency. But that is still fairly close to a coin flip. It's like a football team that's a 2.5- or 3-point favorite to win the game.

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Democrats are still narrowly favored to pick up control of the House.

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Republicans currently have an 80% chance to win the Senate.

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As we noted last week, this means that the most likely outcome right now is that all three chambers of power will flip party control in November.

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2) Government Stupidity on Steroids

We are becoming mega-Elon Musk fans as he barnstorms the country preaching the evils of big government and the sheer stupidity of its regulations. This one fits our "laugh or cry" category:

SpaceX had to do this study to see if Starship would hit a shark. And I'm like, It's a big ocean. There's a lot of sharks. It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely... well, can you give us the shark data? They're like, No, we can't give you the shark data... They said, well, we could give it to our Western division, but we don't trust them. And I'm like, am I in a comedy sketch here? ...

Eventually, I think we got the data and we could run the analysis to say, Yeah, the sharks are going to be fine... And then we thought, Okay, now we're done. And they said, But what about whales? ...

And so we have to do the whale analysis. It's like, Okay, yeah, the whales will be fine, too. It goes on and on. And then there's like, well, what if the rocket goes underwater, it then explodes, and then the whales have hearing damage? This is real. This is actually, and we're like, look, if we could make a rocket go underwater and be a submarine, that would be like a feat of physics we could not accomplish. Okay? This is not how it works.

Anyway, it's just one crazy thing after another. This is why I'm really feeling the pain of the overregulation. And there's multiple federal agencies that have overlapping; they're all doing the same thing, basically. Anyway, we've got to stop this madness because we just won't be able to get anything done.

You can watch the video here:
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We would simply advise Musk that he should inform the government that offshore wind farms kill many times more sharks and whales than falling spaceships and rockets.

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3) Where Have All the Publicly Traded Companies Gone?

Home Depot was a tiny startup with just four stores at the time of its successful 1983 IPO. Forty years later, thanks to the billions of dollars of regulatory costs and hurdles from laws like Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank, few start-up companies can afford to go public.

This chart from Apollo Wealth Management shows the decline in publicly traded companies, which means less access to capital and fewer opportunities for mom-and-pop investors to get in on the ground floor of the next big thing.

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Our friend, Norm Champ ([link removed]) , who served as an SEC commissioner (and should be the next SEC chairman), notes that one reason to be concerned about fewer IPOs is that there is a shortage of public traded companies for retirement plans to invest in. So all the investment money gets crowded into the 25 or so largest corporations - which leads to a further concentration of wealth.

It's all explained in Champ's book, Going Public ([link removed]) .

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4) Real Median Earnings Are Still Down Under Biden

BLS released its final pre-election Weekly Earnings report through the third quarter of 2024. Wages are finally starting to creep up faster than inflation. That's the good news. The bad news is that over the Biden presidency, earnings are still about 1.3% BELOW inflation. It provides further evidence that wage growth under Biden hasn't kept up with inflation, resulting in a 1.3 percent loss in real earnings.

This may explain why polls show a majority of Americans are still dissatisfied with the economy:

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5) Climate Change Hysteria Is Traumatizing Young People
We've noted that the media and the schools are scaring our kids to death with an epidemic of apocalyptic climate forecasts that aren't backed up by science or rationality.

A new poll from Lancet Planetary Health (paid for by the climate activist group Avaaz) claims more than half of young Americans say that environmental worries will impact where they decide to live and whether to have children.

The survey finds that 85% of those between age 16 and 25 are at least moderately worried about climate change, and more than half (57%) said they were "very or extremely" worried. Nearly two-thirds endorsed the statement: "Humanity is doomed," and 52% of the sample endorsed: "I'm hesitant to have children."

What really bothers us, is that MSNBC is enthusiastically hyping these findings, instead of being appalled that our kids are being traumatized by green extremists.

"Many of us are overwhelmed by the daily reality of climate disasters - waking up to the news of wildfires engulfing homes and hurricanes taking lives," says Zion Walker, of the Climate Mental Health Network's Gen Z Advisory Board.

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For the gazillionth time: fewer Americans as a share of the population, die from weather-related events than ever before in history. Meanwhile, taking away people's gas furnaces and air conditioners is a good way to ensure MORE people will die from extreme changes in weather in the years to come.

The best way to reduce the anxiety/panic of young people on climate change is to vigorously push back on the efforts to weaponize the weather in pursuit of a policy agenda that would impoverish many of us.

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6) Let's Hope We Don't Go the Way of Canada!

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