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Politics Without Winners

Can Either Party Build a Majority Coalition?

October 19, 2024

The contemporary American party system is unusually stalemated, as neither Republicans nor Democrats seem capable of building the majority party coalitions that have been the norm throughout American political history. In a new AEI report, Ruy Teixeira and Yuval Levin trace the history of the party system and analyze public and proprietary opinion data to show how either party could build a durable majority and reshape our politics.

 

 

One promising opportunity Teixeira and Levin identify for Republicans to grow their support is by embracing a realistic energy agenda as a counter to Democratic climate radicalism. New polling data and analysis from Roger Pielke Jr. and Ruy Teixeira reveal widespread voter skepticism toward a rapid and economically disruptive energy transition.

 

Inflation, especially on food prices, has been another battle line between the parties, as Donald Trump blames the Biden administration’s fiscal policies, while Kamala Harris accuses businesses of price gouging. In a new AEI report, Vincent H. Smith and Joseph M. Glauber assess the true sources of increased food prices and their impact on American families.

 

Increased infrastructure spending has been one of the few areas of consistent bipartisanship recently, but poor maintenance, cost overruns, and outdated technology continue to undermine progress. R. Richard Geddes and Joshua Rauh explain how Congress can tackle these issues by incentivizing private investment.

 

As Iran and Israel trade blows in the Middle East, concerns have grown that the conflict could expand further. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Kenneth M. Pollack provides an overview of the constraints, from physical distance to military capability, that will make it difficult for either party to prosecute an all-out war.

 

 

Immigration and the Macroeconomy After 2024

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy throughout the 2024 campaign. In a new analysis for the Brookings Institution, Stan Veuger and coauthors estimate the likely macroeconomic impact of their contrasting approaches to the issue. The authors project high- and low-immigration scenarios for each candidate, based on past actions and comprehensive estimates of the likely impact of announced and inferred policies on visas, border enforcements, and removals. US population growth over the next four years could range from only five million people in the low-immigration Trump scenario to 15 million in the high-immigration Harris scenario, with a resulting $130 billion difference in 2025 gross domestic product. As the US population ages and fertility rates decline, the economic impact of immigration policy will only magnify in the years to come.

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Our social poverty problem is multifaceted and so requires a variety of solutions. Digging our way out will be difficult, certainly much harder than writing a check. Only by addressing the erosion of strong social ties can we help the disadvantaged flourish, rather than simply providing them an adequate standard of living.

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