Daily News Brief

October 18, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Sinwar, considered the main architect of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, was confirmed dead yesterday by both the Palestinian militant group and Israeli forces. In a public statement, a senior Hamas official said that the killing would not stop their fight for a “free Palestine” and that the group has only become “stronger and more popular” with each death of its leaders. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli military will continue its operations in the Gaza Strip “for years to come” as Israel works to bring hostages home and replace Hamas’s rule.

U.S. President Joe Biden called yesterday a “good day” for the world and said he sees Sinwar’s death as an “opportunity” for a cease-fire in Gaza and a hostage deal, despite Netanyahu’s statement that the war has “not yet ended.” U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan characterized the killing as dismantling a “massive obstacle of peace.” In response to Sinwar’s death, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah vowed to escalate its fight against Israel, while families of the hostages fear that the leader’s death will put their loved ones in even greater danger. (NBC, Al Jazeera, White House, AP, Reuters)

Analysis

“It is possible that after Sinwar’s death, Hamas’s violence will wane for some time, but it seems unlikely that the organization will completely collapse. Even if it did, armed cadres of the group will likely continue to fight. And over the medium to long term, some new group could emerge to carry on the resistance,” CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook writes to CFR.org editors.

“Sinwar’s death would provide a renewed opening for President Biden to again push for the first phase of the cease-fire deal to be implemented and it would increase pressure on Netanyahu to do so,” the Atlantic Council’s Jonathan Panikoff tells Reuters. “Whether a deal could be struck for a cessation of hostilities will depend on the new Hamas leader—and on Netanyahu’s willingness to finally declare victory and make a deal.”

“If Netanyahu has a victory picture under his belt, he can be a bit more forthcoming because he is in a much more prestigious position,” Itamar Rabinovich, former Israeli ambassador to the United States, tells the New York Times. “The question is, does Netanyahu rise to the occasion, or does he not?”

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

President-Elect Prabowo Subianto, who serves as defense minister, is expected to reveal his cabinet shortly after inauguration. His victory in a February election raised concerns about his human rights record as army general under a period of dictatorship, accusations he strongly denies. Prabowo received support from the dominant political party yesterday; if it joins his coalition, parliament could see an unprecedented alliance since Indonesia’s first direct presidential elections in 2004. (Indonesia Business Post, AP, Reuters)

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick considers how Prabowo will contend with his spotted history while in office. 

Thailand/Vietnam: Nearly three dozen rights groups called on Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the UN refugee agency to release Y Quynh Bđăp, a Vietnamese activist and refugee who was arrested by Thai authorities under an extradition request by Vietnam in June. It follows renewed requests from the Vietnamese government to hand over Bđăp over his alleged connection to attacks on government offices last year, which he denies; rights groups fear he will possibly face torture if he returns. (AP, RFA)

South and Central Asia

The Department of Justice unsealed the indictment against Vikash Yadav, who previously served in India’s intelligence agency, alleging that he directed the murder of a Sikh separatist in New York City last year. U.S. authorities had refrained from charging Yadav until Indian authorities conducted their own investigation. The decision to release the charges yesterday comes at the heels of Canada’s renewed rift with India this week over the killing of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil last year. (WaPo)

Afghanistan/Iran: The UN mission in Afghanistan and Amnesty International called for an investigation into reports that Iranian forces killed and injured dozens of Afghan migrants trying to cross from Pakistan into Iran. Iran has repeatedly denied allegations of mistreatment, stating that the government handles the repatriation of “illegal nationals” in a “respectful manner.” (New Arab)

Middle East and North Africa

The meeting in Cairo is the first such visit by an Iranian official in more than a decade. The two countries, seeking to squash prospects of an even wider regional war, discussed brokering a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, according to Egypt’s foreign ministry. Their diplomatic push comes as war in the Middle East spreads into Lebanon. (FT) 

This article by CFR experts Elliott Abrams, Steven A. Cook, Linda Robinson, and Ray Takeyh examines the effects of the Israel-Hamas war, one year later. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

The funding from the European Union (EU) will help strengthen Senegal’s ability to aid at-risk migrants and address human trafficking, adding to the existing $6.2 million package from the European Commission that boosts the capacity of Senegalese security forces to combat irregular migration. Other European countries are weighing similar proposals; the Netherlands is currently exploring a plan to deport migrants to Uganda. (Le Monde, AFP, Reuters)

This article by Kali Robinson and CFR’s Diana Roy and Sabine Baumgartner shows migrants’ dangerous journey to Europe.

Ghana: The ruling New Patriotic Party lost its majority after chamber members defected from the party to become independent candidates, resulting in a hung parliament ahead of the country’s presidential election in December. (Bloomberg)

Europe

The two-day visit beginning today will mark United Kingdom (UK) Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s first trip to China since taking office earlier this summer. He is expected to bring up China’s support for Russia in Ukraine, concerns over human rights issues in Hong Kong, and the global green energy transition with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. (FT, NYT)

This Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland and CFR’s Clara Fong details China’s crackdown on Hong Kong. 

U.S./France/Germany/UK: President Biden landed in Berlin yesterday for a visit with British, French, and German leaders to discuss Russia’s war in Ukraine. Biden had postponed his trip after Hurricane Milton ravaged Florida earlier this month. (Reuters)

Americas

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello Rondón alleged yesterday that the foreign nationals were conspiring with U.S. entities to destabilize the government, but he did not provide evidence. Arrests of a similar nature occurred last month, in which Cabello Rondón accused six foreign nationals of traveling to the country to assassinate President Nicolás Maduro. (Reuters, AP)

El Salvador: The country will receive a $1 billion debt-for-nature swap, orchestrated by U.S. bank J.P. Morgan. The two governments, as well as several multilateral lending institutions, will contribute to the loan that will allow El Salvador to refinance its debt to fund conservation efforts in its wetlands and rivers. (Rio Times, CAF)

U.S. Campaign 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a statement yesterday addressing the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, stating that “justice has been served.” Harris called the situation “an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” She urged that the war end with Israel’s security, the release of hostages, no more suffering in Gaza, and the right of the Palestinian people to realize their “dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination.” Former President Donald Trump has not issued a statement on the development. (MSNBC)

Friday Editor’s Pick

Undark magazine explores the indirect ways that war casts a shadow over people’s lives—and how researchers are working to find ways to better gauge the true toll of conflict.

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