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An update from FactCheck.org


** Biden's Numbers, Pre-election Edition
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With less than a month left in the 2024 presidential campaign, we released our 11th update for "Biden's Numbers" -- a quarterly report that looks at the state of the union under President Joe Biden.

Biden is no longer a candidate for president, but his vice president, Kamala Harris, is on the ballot — and, to a large extent, so is the Biden-Harris record.

Five FactCheck.org staffers, including Director Emeritus Brooks Jackson, present more than two dozen statistical indicators on such topics as inflation, crime, wages, jobs, health insurance and immigration.

The report reinforces some preconceived notions about the Biden administration, but also contradicts some narratives about it.

Some highlights:
* The unemployment rate decreased and has stayed lower, longer than at any time during the previous administration.
* Inflation spiked, hitting its highest level in over 40 years, then eased greatly. The Consumer Price Index rose only 2.4% in the 12 months ending in September, the most recent figure available.
* After increasing the year before Biden took office, murders and violent crime have declined. The murder rate dropped 0.9 points, and the number dropped 14.5% from 2020 to 2023.
* Apprehensions at the southern border are up 201% for the 12 months ending in August, though they have declined significantly since Biden implemented new border policies in June.

Read the full story, "Biden’s Numbers, 2024 Pre-Election Update ([link removed]) ."
HOW WE KNOW
The Energy Information Administration, which is an agency within the U.S. Department of Energy, is our go-to source for reports and data on energy production, consumption and prices. For our "Biden's Numbers" reports, we used its wealth of material for gasoline prices, carbon emissions, domestic crude oil production and crude oil imports.
FEATURED FACT
The U.S. government tried to use cloud seeding to mitigate hurricanes at various points beginning in the 1940s and ending in 1983. The U.S. government also tried to secretly use cloud seeding to create extra rainfall and disrupt enemy supply chains during the Vietnam War, although it’s not clear whether this operation met its intended goal. Read more ([link removed]) .
WORTHY OF NOTE
The Annenberg Public Policy Center, which is the home of FactCheck.org, released its latest health survey earlier this week.

The survey found a decline in the percentage of people concerned about getting or having a family member get respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. A year ago, 35% said they were worried about RSV, but that number dropped to 26% in the latest survey.

As we reported last year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that among adults age 65 and older there are 60,000 to 160,000 hospitalizations due to RSV per year and between 6,000 and 10,000 deaths. (For more, see our article, "Q&A on RSV Vaccine Candidates for Older Adults ([link removed]) .")

As for children, the CDC estimates that 58,000 to 80,000 children under 5 years old are hospitalized each year because of RSV and that among every 100 babies under 6 months of age with RSV, 1 to 2 may need hospitalization. The CDC also says that an estimated 100 to 500 kids under 5 die each year. (For more, see our article, "Q&A on RSV Maternal Vaccine and Antibody Candidates to Protect Infants ([link removed]) .")

The estimates are based on several studies and the CDC's own surveillance data.

Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center and director of the survey, said the decline in concern may be because “memories of last year’s winter holiday surge in respiratory illnesses and of the 2022-23 ‘tripledemic’ of Covid-19, flu, and RSV respiratory viruses have faded.”

You can read about the Annenberg Science and Public Health Knowledge survey here ([link removed]) .
REPLY ALL

Reader: Has Donald Trump ever cut taxes for the middle class?

FactCheck.org Managing Editor Lori Robertson: You are referring to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which former President Donald Trump signed into law. The Tax Policy Center analyzed the legislation, and here's what we wrote about that analysis in a story from 2019 ([link removed]) :

The Tax Policy Center estimates that about 65 percent of households paid less in federal income tax in 2018 under the TCJA than they would have paid under the old tax laws, while about 6 percent paid more. Among those who got a tax cut, it averaged about $2,200.

It’s true that those with higher incomes reaped greater benefits: A higher percentage of high-income
taxpayers got a tax cut, and that tax cut was, on average, greater than the tax cuts for those with lower incomes (both in dollar amounts and as a percentage of after-tax income). Among those in the bottom income quintile — those with income less than $25,000 — 27 percent got a tax cut, while only 1.4 percent got a tax increase, the Tax Policy Center estimates.

But the vast majority (82 percent) of middle-income earners — those with income between about $49,000 and $86,000 — received a tax cut that averaged about $1,050. Those with the highest incomes fared even better. According to the Tax Policy Center, nearly 95 percent of those in the 95th to 99th income percentiles — those with income between about $308,000 and $733,000 — got a tax cut, and that cut averaged about $12,130.

Those estimates are in line with ones from the business-backed Tax Foundation.


** Wrapping Up
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Here's what else we've got for you this week:
* "Trump’s Spin on Tax Cuts Raising Revenues ([link removed]) ": Former President Donald Trump is proposing to lower the federal corporate tax rate to 15%, insisting that when he lowered it to 21% starting in 2018, revenues received by the government actually went up due to economic growth it spurred. Economists say that’s not what happened.
* "Harris Makes Unsupported Claim About Fentanyl Flows ([link removed]) ": Federal data do not show that “the flow” or “intake” of illegal fentanyl into the United States has been cut “by half” during the Biden-Harris administration, as Vice President Kamala Harris claimed in television interviews.
* "Post Misrepresents Impact of Voter Registrations Delivered to Maricopa County ([link removed]) ": Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk made an unsupported claim online that a liberal group “attempted to inject chaos” into the 2024 election by dropping off 20,000 voter registrations in Maricopa County on the last eligible day. It’s unclear whether any group delivered that many forms, but experts say that amount can be processed by election offices.
* "Meme Rehashes Old, False Claim That J6 Committee Destroyed Evidence ([link removed]) ": The House committee that investigated the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, issued a more than 800-page report presenting and analyzing the evidence about what happened that day. It also released videos, transcribed interviews, depositions and other documents. But some high-profile conservatives are now making the false claim that the committee destroyed “all the evidence.”
* "Misinformation Floods Hurricane Season ([link removed]) ": The 2024 hurricane season has brought with it a deluge of conspiracy theories and false or misleading claims about storms that have devastated some parts of the country and killed hundreds of people.
* "Trump’s False Claims of ‘No Help’ or Helicopters Sent for Helene Victims ([link removed]) ": In his continued attack on the federal response to Hurricane Helene, former President Donald Trump falsely said that no helicopters and no help were sent to the affected areas for days, blaming Vice President Kamala Harris. There’s plenty of evidence that helicopters have been used and that federal, state and local disaster recovery teams have responded to help victims of the storm.
* "Baseless Claims Proliferate on Hurricanes and Weather Modification ([link removed]) ": Experts say people cannot create or meaningfully alter hurricanes through existing weather modification techniques. That has not stopped a deluge of social media posts baselessly claiming or implying that Hurricanes Helene and Milton were intentionally created, steered or otherwise controlled by someone.
* "Pence Hasn’t Endorsed Harris, Contrary to Edited Video on Social Media ([link removed]) ": Former Vice President Mike Pence has said he will not endorse former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but Pence has also said he “could never” vote for Trump’s opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. An edited video on social media misleadingly purports to show Pence endorsing Harris. He did not.

Y lo que publicamos en español ([link removed]) (English versions are accessible in each story):
* "Aumentan las afirmaciones infundadas sobre huracanes y la modificación del clima ([link removed]) ": Las personas no pueden crear huracanes ni alterarlos significativamente utilizando técnicas de modificación del clima existentes, dicen los expertos. Pero eso no ha detenido el diluvio de publicaciones en las redes sociales que afirman o insinúan sin fundamento que los huracanes Helene y Milton fueron creados, dirigidos o controlados intencionalmente por alguien.
* "Riada de desinformación en la temporada de huracanes ([link removed]) ": La temporada de huracanes de 2024 ha traído consigo un diluvio de teorías conspirativas y afirmaciones falsas o engañosas sobre tormentas que han devastado algunas partes del país y le han quitado la vida a cientos de personas.
* "Las afirmaciones falsas de Trump de que no se envió ayuda o helicópteros a las víctimas de Helene ([link removed]) ": En su constante ataque a la respuesta federal al huracán Helene, el expresidente Donald Trump afirmó falsamente que no se enviaron helicópteros ni ayuda a las zonas afectadas durante días, culpando a la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris. Hay abundantes pruebas de que se han utilizado helicópteros y de que los equipos federales, estatales y locales de recuperación de desastres naturales han respondido para ayudar a las víctimas de la tormenta.
* "Harris hace afirmación infundada sobre flujos de fentanilo ([link removed]) ": Las estadísticas federales no muestran que “el flujo” o “la entrada” de fentanilo ilegal en los Estados Unidos se haya reducido “a la mitad” durante la administración Biden-Harris, como afirmó la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris en entrevistas televisivas. La cantidad de fentanilo incautado por los agentes fronterizos ha aumentado significativamente en los últimos años, pero esas estadísticas por sí solas no respaldan la afirmación de la vicepresidenta.
* "Publicaciones hacen afirmaciones engañosas sobre el futuro de FEMA con Trump ([link removed]) ": Publicaciones en las redes sociales afirman engañosamente que el “Proyecto 2025 de Trump acabará” con la Agencia Federal para el Manejo de Emergencias (FEMA, por sus siglas en inglés) y brindará “CERO ayuda federal” a las víctimas de desastres naturales. El Proyecto 2025 no es el plan del expresidente Donald Trump y no hay evidencia de que “acabará” con FEMA. De hecho, su administración gastó decenas de miles de millones en ayuda para desastres cuando era presidente.
* "Los agricultores republicanos que aparecen en el anuncio de Harris no son actores ni demócratas ([link removed]) ": En un anuncio de la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris aparece una pareja de agricultores de Pensilvania que dicen ser “republicanos de toda la vida” pero que votarán por Harris. Algunos usuarios de las redes sociales, que citan un video de un sitio de noticias australiano, afirman falsamente que los agricultores son “actores” y donantes demócratas. El sitio de noticias corrigió su informe.
* "Publicaciones en redes sociales tergiversan restricciones del espacio aéreo tras el huracán Helene ([link removed]) ": La Administración Federal de Aviación comúnmente restringe el espacio aéreo sobre las zonas afectadas por desastres naturales para permitir que se lleven a cabo las labores de rescate y socorro. Pero esta actividad rutinaria ha dado lugar a publicaciones engañosas en internet que afirman que a los operadores de drones voluntarios se les ha prohibido colaborar en las labores de recuperación tras el huracán Helene.

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