Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Oct. 17, 2024
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Iran's Very Bad Year
The crisis in the Middle East continues with no end in sight. Often overlooked amid all the misery in the region is Iran, which is having a "terrible, horrible, very bad year," RAND's Raphael Cohen writes.
Iran has taken some serious blows recently. Its proxy groups are severely weakened, with Hezbollah's leader killed in Lebanon last month and reports today that Israel's forces have killed Hamas's leader in Gaza. What's more, further relief from Western sanctions is off the table.
Tehran has only itself to blame, Cohen says. Its risk-taking has reached dangerous levels. Consider Iran's strikes on Israel. Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at a militarily superior, superpower-backed adversary while calling for that adversary's annihilation. Iran also reportedly plotted to assassinate former President Donald Trump in retaliation for the 2020 killing of Iranian Quds Force leader Qassem Suleimani.
These risky actions and Tehran's incompetence have threatened the regime's stability. "The wisest option for Iran right now," Cohen says, "would be to retreat to the shadows, rebuild its proxy network, and fight another day."
But Iran seems unwilling to back down, and that has important implications. If threatening to act fails to deter further Iranian escalation, Cohen says, then Washington and its allies "may have no other choice" than to destroy Iran's ability to attack Israel and aid its proxies. And if that happens, then as terrible as this year has been for Iran, next year might be even worse.
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Why the School Day Should Start Later
Most teenagers fall short of the eight to ten hours of sleep they need each night. This is largely because their biological tendency to be night owls conflicts with early school start times. The solution may be to start the school day later, says RAND's Wendy Troxel. This has been linked to better attendance, improved academic performance, and higher graduation rates. Further, RAND research shows that delaying start times could bring substantial economic benefits. Making this change would be making "a commitment to the health and future of the next generation," Troxel says.
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Dealing with Escalation: Insights for Military Planners
Escalation--an increase in the intensity or scope of military activity--is sometimes essential to achieving U.S. objectives. But in other circumstances, it might lead to undesired responses by adversaries and even catastrophic consequences. However, current U.S. military doctrine provides little specific guidance on how to account for escalation. RAND researchers recently conducted an in-depth review of academic literature on this subject, distilling key insights into when, why, and how escalation may unfold. The resulting primer establishes a "vocabulary" to help decisionmakers describe the trade-offs of military options.
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** RAND Recommends
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- Are you a graduate student? Do you want to work at RAND next summer? Applications for our Summer Associate Program are now open. Apply by December 2.
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- It's "extraordinarily likely" that U.S. adversaries spread misinformation about Hurricanes Helene and Milton, RAND's Jessica Jensen tells PolitiFact. They've done so with other disasters, and this tactic is effective in "sowing discord and exacerbating an already polarized climate."
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- The Quad--a security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States--appears here to stay, RAND's Derek Grossman writes in Foreign Policy.
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** Events
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Policy Lab: Generative AI and Information Warfare
Thursday, October 24, 2024 (Online)
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Racial and Socioeconomic Divides in Algebra Teaching and Learning
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 (Online)
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Addressing Imploding Health Care Systems: Is Primary Care Reform Really the Answer?
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 (Online)
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Expert Views on State-Level Policies for Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder
Thursday, November 14, 2024 (Online)
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