CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

[link removed]
CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs ([link removed]) ).


** September Highlights
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** U.S. accuses China of aiding Russian war on Ukraine as new details emerge
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American officials have more directly accused ([link removed]) China of supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, in return for access to technologies and operational information in fields in which Russia is still more advanced than China. Speaking to European journalists after meeting NATO counterparts in Brussels on September 10, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that China’s help went beyond the “dual-use capabilities” that U.S. officials have previously outlined and extended to Chinese products that are “being directly applied to the Russian war machine.” Both China and Russia are making efforts to conceal this cooperation, and China has insisted it is not taking sides in Ukraine. Campbell also outlined some of the specific areas in which Russia is assisting China, including submarine operations, where China lags both the U.S. and Russia, and aircraft design, including stealth technologies. Chinese
progress in these areas, with Russian assistance, could pose a threat to other major Asian powers, Campbell argued.

One Chinese company is providing ([link removed]) mass produced engines for the Russian Garpiya-A1 (“Harpy”) drone, Reuters reported, citing detailed information provided by a European intelligence agency. Xiamen Limbach has provided an initial batch of 800 engines to a Russian drone factory producing a long-range attack drone very similar to Iran’s well-known Shahed-136 drones, which Tehran has been providing to Moscow since 2022. The system has a range of 1,500 kilometers. The IMEZ Kupol plant in Russia is reportedly able to produce 2,500 units per year.

Later reports, also sourced to a European intelligence agency, said that Russian and Chinese workers collaborated to develop ([link removed]) a new (“Garpiya-A3”) version of the drone in China; IMEZ Kupol can produce the drones there too. The reports rely on intercepted communications between IMEZ Kupol and Russia’s Defense Ministry. Seven prototype units have already been delivered. Providing entire Chinese-manufactured weapons systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, rather than just components, would be provocative, and Western disclosure of Chinese cooperation with Russia seems intended to discourage Chinese officials from following through with it.


** US and UK share concerns about possible Russian nuclear assistance to Iran
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During the recent summit between President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, cabinet-level officials from both governments told reporters ([link removed]) that they were concerned about the potential for Russia to share nuclear technology with Iran, which is providing ballistic missiles and drones to Russia. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Russia was “sharing technology that Iran seeks… including on nuclear issues as well as some space information.” The officials did not elaborate further. While Russia still presumably would not consider Iranian deployment of operational nuclear missiles as in its long-term interest, Iran does have leverage as a key UAV supplier to Russia for the war in Ukraine. Russian moves to build similar drones in China may aim partly to lessen this dependency.


** Iran delivers Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia
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U.S. officials said on September 10 that Iran had finally delivered the initial batch ([link removed]) of short-range ballistic missiles ordered by Russia, identified as the Fath-360 system. This type of missile has a range of 75 miles. Russia has its own inventories of short-range ballistic missiles, but procurement from Iran will allow Russia to reserve its longer-range missiles for strikes against more distant targets. That could raise the risk to infrastructure targets in Western Ukraine. Later, however, Western government sources said that Iran apparently had not included launchers ([link removed]) with the Fath-360 missiles. Russia might intend to modify other launchers for the Fath-360 missiles, but their current operational status is unclear. Observers have not yet seen the weapons used in combat.


** Russia backs off support for corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan
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Relations between Moscow and Tehran seem to be back on track after Russian officials backed off from supporting ([link removed]) a demand by Azerbaijan for sovereignty over a narrow corridor (the “Zanzegur Corridor”) to connect it to its Nakhichevan exclave, which would have cut off the territorial contiguity between Iran and Armenia, which have close relations. Moscow also appears to have changed course in part to boost its influence in Armenia, which has been drifting away ([link removed]) from Moscow’s orbit in recent years. The fact that Russia backed down less than a month after voicing support for Azerbaijan’s demand underscores Iran’s leverage over Russia as a supplier of badly needed weapons for the war in Ukraine.


** Iran brokers negotiations on supply of Russian missiles to Yemen’s Houthis
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Yemen’s Houthi movement is in talks ([link removed]) with Russia on potential supplies of Russian anti-ship missiles. Iran has aided the Houthis in recent years and the Houthis are widely considered to be among the “proxy” groups closely aligned with Iran in the “Axis of Resistance.” The Russian Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles are technologically superior to the anti-ship missiles and drones that the Houthis have been using to interdict shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Russia may see the talks with the Houthis as leverage with the West over Ukraine, since the Ukrainian government has been pushing its Western backers, including the United States, to allow Kyiv to strike targets in Russia, in addition to continuing attacks on Russian forces deployed in Ukraine.


** Links
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U.S. intelligence officials accused Russia, China, and Iran of using artificial intelligence tools to create misinformation intended to deceive Americans in advance of the November 5 presidential election, during a call organized by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (NBC News ([link removed]) )

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stressed the need to counter Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly on September 24. (New York Times ([link removed]) )

Russia conducted naval exercises with four Chinese warships in the Pacific, part of a broader set of Russian exercises which Russian officials say was intended to demonstrate their continuing ability to field forces in areas far from the war in Ukraine. (Reuters ([link removed]) , AP ([link removed]) )

Chinese Coast Guard icebreakers entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time as part of a joint patrol with Russian vessels. (Reuters ([link removed]) , South China Morning Post ([link removed]) )

North Korean authorities have added a substantial amount of Chinese media content to its banned media list, including some Chinese television shows which were popular in North Korea. (Radio Free Asia ([link removed]) )

North Korean authorities have been carrying out a crackdown on illicit contacts across the border with China, including smuggling of goods and use of Chinese mobile phones to contact the outside world. (Daily NK ([link removed]) )

North Korea announced that it will lift pandemic era restrictions on tourist visits, mainly Chinese, in December. (South China Morning Post ([link removed]) )

North Korea ordered expatriate workers in China to give cash donations for flood recovery efforts. (Daily NK ([link removed]) )

North Korean trade volumes with China have recovered since a steep drop over the summer due to flooding in the border region. (Nikkei Asia ([link removed]) )

Hezbollah has received North Korean advice on tunnel construction via Iran. (Fox News ([link removed]) )

Chinese officials offered rhetorical support for Iran in its conflict with Israel in speeches and meetings during the UN General Assembly, saying China supported Iran’s efforts to safeguard its “sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, and national dignity.” (South China Morning Post ([link removed]) )

China has intensified efforts to detain and deport migrants from North Korea, including but not limited to those who intend to reach South Korea. (Reuters ([link removed]) )


** Recent Analysis
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Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America ([link removed]) (Christopher S. Chivvis and Jack Keating, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

The Risk of Another Korean War is Higher than Ever ([link removed]) (Robert A. Manning, Stimson Center)

Why Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are teaming up ([link removed]) (Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Center for a New American Security)

Taiwan and the Limits of the Russia-China Friendship ([link removed]) (Eugene Rumer, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)


** CRANK Perspectives
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Ukraine peace proposal by China, Brazil calls for fairer, more just world order ([link removed]) (Unsigned editorial, Global Times)


** CRANK Call
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Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy ([email protected])

Image credit: Press Secretary for the President of the Russian Federation (via Wikimedia Commons)

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