Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we take a look at the GOP’s path to a Senate majority, the ROI of liberal arts colleges, and the coming age of global depopulation.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. Swing State Showdown

Topline: With less than three weeks until the election, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt outlines the GOP’s path to the Senate majority. With Republican Tim Sheehy predicted to flip Montana, Stirewalt identifies Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as the next pickup opportunities for the GOP.

Road to a Majority: While the Democratic candidates in these states are ahead in the polls, Stirewalt sees silver linings for the GOP:

In Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania the Democratic candidates are still polling below 50%, with 6.5% to 7.6% of voters still undecided.
In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown trails Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen by 9 points, but nearly 10% of the voters remain undecided. With so many voters still up for grabs, Stirewalt notes that Nevada could be the biggest upset of the election.

Impact on 2025: Stirewalt explains that a larger 53 or 54-seat GOP majority could look like a “captive Harris presidency or MAGA unchained depending on which way the final voters tilt at the top of the ticket.”

More Election Analysis

2. Is College Still Worth It?

Topline: As the cost of college remains high, AEI’s Preston Cooper examines the return on investment (ROI) of liberal arts colleges, finding their ROI is lower than other schools. 35% of bachelor’s degrees from liberal arts colleges result in a negative ROI.

The Problem: Cooper explains the lower ROI at liberal arts colleges is largely due to high tuition and lower alumni earnings.

But . . . He notes that the degree a student chooses is a stronger predictor of future earnings. Majors such as engineering, computer science, and nursing have a higher ROI at liberal arts colleges than the national average.

“Students should approach liberal arts colleges with caution. . . . But when students choose the right major, a liberal arts education can enhance rather than detract from their career prospects.”

—Preston Cooper

See the Cost of College

3. The Coming Age of Depopulation

Topline: AEI’s Nicholas Eberstadt finds the world will soon begin a new era of depopulation unseen since the bubonic plague of the 1300s. Birthrates have declined across the world, and the global fertility rate will soon fall below the replacement level.

State of Play: This is a global trend, with Europe, North America, Latin America, East Asia, and Southeast Asia already experiencing fertility rates below replacement level.

For example, Europe has been below the replacement threshold for nearly half a century. “Last year,” Eberstadt writes, “France tallied fewer births than it did in 1806, the year Napoleon won the Battle of Jena.”

What About the US? The US is an outlier among developed countries, with a birthrate of about 1.6 births per woman and a steady inflow of immigrants. Eberstadt notes it still falls short of the replacement level, and the US Census Bureau projects the US population will reach its peak in 2080.

“But it is not too late for leaders to reckon with the seemingly unstoppable force of depopulation and help their countries succeed in a world gone gray.”

—Nicholas Eberstadt