Zelenzkyy’s ‘Victory Plan’ Presented to Ukrainian Lawmakers |
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled his highly anticipated five-point plan today on how to end Russia’s war by as early as next year. At the top of the list was a call for an invitation to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which the country submitted an application for in 2022. Zelenskyy emphasized that the plan’s implementation “depends on [Ukraine’s] partners.”
While parts of the blueprint remain confidential, Zelenskyy outlined four other main objectives: gaining permission to use long-range weapons on Russian territory; containing Russia through non-nuclear deterrence; implementing joint United States and European Union (EU) protections of Ukraine’s natural and critical resources; and stationing U.S. and Ukrainian troops across Europe in the post-war period. A Kremlin spokesperson dismissed Ukraine’s planned path to victory, saying that Kyiv needed to “sober up.” Separately, Russia launched a mass overnight wave of drones targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities in what is the largest such attack in recent months. (Kyiv Independent, BBC, Reuters)
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“The proposal … aims to strengthen Ukraine’s position enough on the battlefield to force Russia to negotiate an end to the war. Much of that would hinge on increased Western support. … But whether Kyiv’s allies will endorse the plan remains to be seen. Mr. Zelenskyy recently visited Washington and European capitals to brief Ukraine’s allies on the strategy, and the responses have been limited,” Constant Méheut writes for the New York Times.
“From the outset, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has embedded his issues regarding Ukraine in the larger question of NATO’s role in Europe. He has long railed against the alliance’s expansion and potential Ukrainian membership as a grave threat to Russia’s security, as well as a betrayal of promises at the end of the Cold War not to extend NATO ‘an inch’ eastward. … What unsettled Putin was the ever-closer military and security cooperation between Ukraine and individual NATO members, especially the United States, which included more frequent and complex joint exercises in and around Ukraine,” CFR Fellow Thomas Graham writes in this Expert Brief.
CFR’s special initiative on the war in Ukraine provides timely analysis and practical policy recommendations for U.S. policymakers and the public.
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U.S.-Philippine Annual Joint Drills Bring in More Allies |
The exercises began yesterday and will run until October 25. Marines from both countries will be joined by troops from Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom (UK), as well as newcomers France, Indonesia, and Thailand. The drills come on the heels of China kicking off large wartime exercises in the Taiwan Strait earlier this week. (SCMP, Reuters)
Australia: The government will invest billions of dollars over the next two decades to expand a nuclear submarine shipyard, Canberra’s defense minister announced today. The facility will in part be home to nuclear-powered submarines that Australia plans to purchase from the United States under their defense pact with the UK, known as AUKUS. (Reuters)
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Indian Foreign Minister Makes Rare Visit to Pakistan for SCO Summit |
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s visit marks the first in almost a decade of icy relations between India and Pakistan, but the two countries have not planned a bilateral meeting. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) annual leaders summit began yesterday in Islamabad as the city is under strict security lockdown while high-profile diplomats visit. Violence in Pakistan has been on the rise recently, especially toward Chinese nationals. (Economic Times, Reuters)
CFR’s Center for Preventive Action tracks the rift between India and Pakistan.
India/South Korea: Labor strikes by Samsung Electronics factory workers in India’s southern Tamil Nadu state came to a close yesterday after union leaders and the Seoul-based company agreed to a settlement. The strikes over pay and working conditions lasted more than a month, with Samsung taking members of the union to local court. (AFP, Times of India)
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Middle East and North Africa |
U.S. Threatens to Withhold Military Aid to Israel Until Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza Is Addressed |
In a letter from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Washington is giving the Israeli government thirty days to meet a swath of humanitarian demands. This includes allowing at least 350 trucks a day into the Gaza Strip and implementing a humanitarian pause for vaccinations and aid distribution for at least the next four months. Last month saw the lowest level of humanitarian aid in any month since the war began, Blinken and Austin wrote. (FT, CNN)
For Think Global Health, Shira Efron overviews the humanitarian failures and successes in Gaza a year into the war.
Egypt/Saudi Arabia: The two countries’ leaders agreed to deepen their economic partnership and investments in the energy, transport, and tourism sectors during talks in Cairo yesterday. Saudi Arabia has sought to transition away from direct aid to allies and focus on mutual investments. The two also called for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon. (The National)
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Kenya’s Deputy President Impeachment Trial Begins |
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is due to stand trial today in front of Kenya’s Senate on charges of corruption, inciting ethnic divisions, and undermining the government. His impeachment follows a rift between him and President William Ruto. Gachagua denies all charges. (BBC) For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin argues that the impeachment distracts from Kenya’s bigger issues.
Africa: The World Bank shrunk its latest growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 3.4 percent to 3 percent, its downgrade driven primarily by the destruction from Sudan’s civil war and climate risks. Some larger economies, however, are expected to grow—Nigeria’s is predicted to rise by 3.3 percent this year, and Kenya’s by 5 percent. (Bloomberg, Reuters)
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French Territory of Martinique Hit With Extended Curfews |
The French Caribbean island is undergoing violent protests over rising living costs, shedding light on the standard of living difference between the island and the mainland. They follow similar protests in other overseas French territories, such as in New Caledonia this summer. Martinique’s measures will be in place until October 21, according to local authorities. (Reuters)
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Brazil Government to Consult Indigenous Communities for Carbon Offsets in Amazon |
The decision to begin a “new phase of dialogue” comes after Indigenous and community organizations released a public letter saying they were not consulted or kept informed of the carbon offset credits program with U.S. companies. During last month’s New York Climate Week, several companies agreed to buy credits that would be allocated toward local communities in the Amazon. (Reuters)
Bolivia: Demonstrations erupted in the country after a prosecutor said she would pursue an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales. His supporters have been ratcheting up tensions for months as they clash with those of President Luis Arce. Morales, who held office from 2006 to 2019, faces allegations of rape and human trafficking, which he denies. (BBC)
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Trump Reiterates Sweeping Tariffs on Imported Cars |
Former President Donald Trump pledged he would prioritize tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU during remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago yesterday. Trump has placed increased emphasis on trade protectionism throughout his campaign, having previously suggested levies as high as 60 percent on Chinese imports. (FT, WaPo)
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