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Good morning,
The market seemed to shrug off geopolitical concerns and hurricane worries, focusing instead on economic data and Fed policy. As Benjamin Graham once said, “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” This week proved that keeping a level head amid various distractions is crucial for successful investing.
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The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected, with core CPI ticking up to 3.3% year-over-year. However, there was a silver lining – the shelter component, which has been driving core inflation, saw its smallest increase since June.
The Producer Price Index and consumer sentiment data supported the idea that the Fed will continue cutting rates. Speaking of which, the FOMC meeting minutes revealed that most participants see diminished upside risks to inflation and increased downside risks to employment.
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In the financial sector, **JPMorgan Chase**, **Wells Fargo**, and **BlackRock** all received positive responses to their earnings results, setting a promising tone for the upcoming earnings season.
Happy Columbus Day!
Have a great week!
Irving Wilkinson, Editor
[AlphaBetaStock.com]([link removed])
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## Week In Review
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## **US Market Highlights**
* Inflation remains a challenge, with headline CPI at 2.4% and core CPI at 3.3%.
* **Goldman Sachs** cut U.S. recession odds to 15%, citing strong job growth and a lower unemployment rate.
* Fed officials were split on the size of the next rate cut, with a 25 basis point reduction now more likely.
* **Boeing** announced 17,000 job cuts and delayed its 777X aircraft launch until 2026.
* The Department of Justice is considering breaking up **Google** after a monopoly ruling.
* **Roblox** shares fell 9% following allegations from Hindenburg Research about inflated user metrics.
## **Global Highlights**
* German recession fears deepened as manufacturing output dropped 2.4% in July.
* The U.K. economy showed signs of life with 0.2% growth in August, driven by retail and industrial output.
* The Bank of Korea cut rates for the first time in four year
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## Commodities & Crypto
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Oil prices have been particularly volatile due to Middle East tensions. Brent crude is trading at $78.60, while WTI is at $74.80. In the metals market, copper lost ground, trading at $9,723 per metric ton on the LME.
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Gold is facing headwinds from rising bond yields, trading around $2,650.
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As for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is down over 3% this week, approaching the $60,000 mark. Interestingly, Bitcoin is still below its halving price of $64,700, an unprecedented situation in its history.
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## Calendar
----------Next week, all eyes will be on the September CPI report. Economists expect the core inflation rate to hold steady at 3.2% year-over-year. It’s like waiting for your annual physical results – you’re hoping for good news, but bracing for any surprises.
We’ll also get to digest the producer price index report and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey for October. And let’s not forget the FOMC minutes from the September meeting – it’s like getting a peek at the Fed’s diary.
The earnings season starts with heavy hitters like **Delta Air Lines**, **PepsiCo**, and **JPMorgan Chase** stepping up to the plate. It’s like the opening night of a Broadway show – we’re all eager to see how the performance goes.
And of course, we’ll all be keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East. It’s a stark reminder that in the world of investing, geopolitics can often throw a wrench in the works.
As we navigate these choppy waters, remember that diversification is your life jacket. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket unless you’re really, really good at carrying baskets. Stay informed, stay diversified, and, most importantly, stay curious. The market always has something new to teach us.
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