From James at Full Fact <[email protected]>
Subject Can we calculate the true coronavirus death toll?
Date May 8, 2020 6:30 AM
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Comparing the UK with other countries isn’t as simple as it may seem

08 May 2020 | Facts and news from Full Fact
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** FACT CHECK
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** Can we calculate the true coronavirus death toll?
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In England and Wales in the four weeks between March 28 and April 24, there were a total of 37,471 excess deaths above the average. That’s more than all those who have died on Britain’s roads over the past 16 years.

However, according to their death certificates, thousands of these people did not have Covid-19.

Among the many above-average deaths recorded at home or in care homes, less than half the death certificates mentioned the disease.

For now, we don’t know why. We might simply be failing to record the true number of Covid-19 deaths.

But Full Fact spoke to one expert, David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, who suggested that a substantial part of the non-Covid excess deaths could be due to people’s unwillingness to seek medical help during the crisis.

Another expert, Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, said that it appears the excess deaths are not entirely explained by under-reporting of Covid-19 fatalities.

This is a complex topic, and not one we can do justice in an email newsletter. You can read our full analysis below and we cover the subject in-depth on our weekly podcast.
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** FACT CHECK
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** Has the government really hit ‘100,000 tests a day’? ([link removed])
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The government claims that it hit its pledge to carry out 100,000 Covid-19 tests a day by the end of April. However, some questions remain about whether the target has actually been hit.

Public Health England’s Professor John Newton has confirmed that tests that are sent out to people at home or to satellite centres are counted at the point they are sent, rather than when the tests are completed. Of the 122,347 tests that the government has said were completed on the last day of April, 27,497 are home tests and 12,872 were sent out to satellite sites. This suggests that just 81,978 of the tests were actually processed.

Experts have told us of their concerns that the home tests may not provide results when they are processed, with one saying that “significant numbers” of the tests are likely to be “void or unsatisfactory.” Additionally, the figures show 73,191 individual people were tested on April 30, meaning some of the 122,347 tests are likely to have been multiple tests of the same individual.

The latest official numbers show that 69,463 daily tests took place on May 6.
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** FACT CHECK
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** It seems unlikely the accounts re-sharing a viral post about the UK press are bots ([link removed])
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It has been suggested that there might have been coordinated effort from a number of Twitter accounts to share an identical part of a viral post about UK journalists missing the “mood” of the country. Others on Twitter have attributed this phenomenon to “bots.”

However, copy and paste posts like these are unlikely to be bot activity.

The accounts sharing this message have very little in common—they were created at varying dates, have tweeted about different topics prior to sharing the tweet, and took different approaches to sharing the post’s content, some just sharing one part of the post while others shared larger parts, or added their own opinions or feelings.

The original post these tweets quote from encourages people to share its sentiment, so it’s likely people are just following this instruction.
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Episode 4 of our podcast is here! ([link removed])

This week we took a deep dive into the death figures and answered your questions
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** Also this week...
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* What is ‘shielding’ and who needs to do it? ([link removed])
* Some of the PPE exported to the EU could have been used in the UK ([link removed])
* It's incorrect to say flu vaccines don't work ([link removed])

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