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Week of October 7, 2024 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
Tensions in the Middle East remain high ten days after Iran launched a missile strike on Israel, with the region on edge awaiting a likely Israeli military response. Following a stark warning from Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant about delivering a “deadly and unexpected” retaliation, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi declared during a diplomatic tour that Tehran is ready for “any scenario.”
The current crisis follows Iran’s missile barrage on October 1, which saw nearly 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel. In response, Israel threatened severe consequences, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant describing the Iranian strike as “aggressive but inaccurate” and assuring the public that the Israeli air force remains operational and unaffected by the attack.
Araghchi’s tour included visits to Gulf countries to rally support for de-escalation, and included high-level meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and the Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have reportedly refused to allow Israel to use their airspace for a potential strike on Iran and have urged the U.S. to discourage any attacks on Iranian oil facilities, reflecting Gulf concerns about potential retaliation by Iran’s regional allies. Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi, close to the royal family, told Reuters that Iran had warned Gulf states that granting Israel access to their airspace for military action would be considered an act of war.
In Tehran, Rasul Sanaei-Rad, deputy chief of staff for Iran’s armed forces, cautioned that any strike on nuclear facilities could prompt a reassessment of Iran’s nuclear policy. His remarks echoed recent calls from Iranian lawmakers for a review of defense strategies, potentially including nuclear weapons development. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consistently stated that developing nuclear weapons is forbidden, though various Iranian stakeholders have increasingly hinted or urged that the policy could be revisited if Iranian red lines are crossed. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has remained silent on Israel’s threats to target Iranian nuclear sites, drawing criticism from journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi, who warned that any attack could risk catastrophic radiation leaks similar to the Chernobyl disaster.
In an interview with Al Jazeera in Doha, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that Iran does not seek war but remains prepared for any outcome. He expressed hope that Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, could play constructive roles in facilitating a ceasefire. Araghchi also revealed that indirect diplomatic channels with the U.S. remain open.
Saeed Azimi, Tehran correspondent for France24, reported via an Iranian source that bin Salman passed a message from the U.S. to Araghchi, stating that the U.S. is not aware of Iranian intentions but will not participate in any Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden held a call on Wednesday, which was also attended by Vice President Kamala Harris. Israeli sources indicated that the U.S. cautioned Netanyahu against a strike on Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure, whereas Netanyahu claimed that there is a historic opportunity to strike Iran.
Following the discussion, the White House shared a readout that included condemnation of Iran’s missile strike and expressed “ironclad” support for Israel. Biden called for minimizing civilian casualties in Lebanon, particularly in densely populated areas of Beirut, while stressing the need for diplomatic solutions to ensure safe returns for civilians. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas were also addressed, with Biden advocating for opening northern Gaza to aid deliveries from Jordan. Biden clarified that he opposes strikes on Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, warning that targeting nuclear sites would cross “global red lines.”
Economic concerns have also been heightened by the conflict, with the Iranian currency and gold prices soaring amid fears of further escalation. On October 6, the dollar rate in Iran’s free market surpassed 63,000 tomans, and the price of a full gold coin neared 50 million tomans, while the stock market plummeted. The head of Iran’s Stock Exchange Organization noted “unprecedented stagnation” in stock transactions, with market fluctuations persisting since the October 1 missile attack. Global gold prices also surged, reaching $2,668 per ounce as uncertainty over Israel’s response continued to fuel economic anxiety.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attended an international conference in Turkmenistan, entitled “Interconnectedness of Times and Civilizations – A Basis for Peace and Development,” and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 11. This marks the first meeting between Pezeshkian and Putin since the Iranian President’s inauguration
During the meeting, Pezeshkian emphasized the close alignment between Iran and Russia on global issues and expressed hope that a strategic partnership agreement between the two countries could be finalized at the upcoming BRICS summit in Russia. He also addressed the escalating crisis in the Middle East, accusing Israel of disregarding “international legal and humanitarian frameworks” and blaming Western powers for fostering regional instability. “European countries and the U.S. do not want peaceful relations among regional states to continue,” he stated.
Putin, in turn, highlighted the importance of bilateral cooperation, noting that trade between Iran and Russia has been expanding successfully. He invited Pezeshkian to attend the BRICS summit and proposed a bilateral meeting on the sidelines, stating, “We work together internationally, and our global assessments and approaches are aligned.”
The BRICS group, originally composed of major developing economies, has recently expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, reflecting its growing influence. According to Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, the two leaders were set to discuss “a range of topics from bilateral relations to the situation in the Middle East.” Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy advisor, had earlier described the meeting as crucial, given the “dire conditions in the region.”
The meeting comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s missile strike on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon. Israel has vowed to respond to Iran’s attack, with the scope and intensity of its retaliation becoming a key topic in diplomatic discussions among the two sides’ allies.
Accompanying Pezeshkian on this trip, Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi has held talks with officials from Lebanon, Syria, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia in recent days to discuss potential Israeli responses to Iran. During his visit to Turkmenistan, Pezeshkian also met with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedow. Prior to his meeting with Putin, he held talks with Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, the National Leader of Turkmenistan, where he emphasized the “cultural ties” between the two nations and the need to expand cultural, political, and economic cooperation.
The international conference in Ashgabat commemorates the 300th anniversary of Magtymguly Pyragy, a renowned Turkmen poet born in Iran, who is considered one of the greatest figures in Turkmen literary history.
As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, activists from various backgrounds, including human rights, politics, and culture, are raising their voices in opposition to war. Narges Mohammadi, a jailed human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, recently shared her thoughts in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, discussing peace, imprisonment, and the struggles of motherhood.
Mohammadi emphasized that peace is “not merely the absence of war but also freedom from all forms of oppression, tyranny, discrimination, threats, terror, and insecurity.” Reflecting on her experiences during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, she recounted how the fear of bombings in her hometown of Zanjan deeply affected her teenage years. “I despise war,” she said, addressing the renewed threat of conflict in the region.
She argued that “those who start wars are condemned not only by the people of that land and time but also by the history of humanity.” In her view, the policies of the Islamic Republic have left a legacy of “discrimination, violence, tyranny, and oppression.” She declared, “The path to peace cannot go through the dark and destructive tunnel of war. I hate war just as much as I despise tyranny, and I am as committed to peace as I am to democracy.” Mohammadi also stressed that achieving sustainable peace in Iran and the Middle East requires upholding global human rights standards, eliminating gender apartheid, and fostering a culture of dialogue and tolerance—something that remains elusive amid the current unrest.
Singer Shervin Hajipour, who sang the protest anthem Baraye and was targeted by Iranian authorities, also issued an anti-war tweet. It stated:
“We do not choose where to be born
I just hope no ordinary citizen, anywhere in the world
His life should not be sacrificed for war.”
Islamic Scholar Sedigheh Vasmaghi, who criticized harsh hijab laws and the Supreme Leader, leading to her imprisonment earlier this year, also issued an anti-war tweet saying “no to war.”
Separately, Reza Pahlavi, the former Crown Prince of Iran, issued a video aligning himself with military escalation against Iran and supporting coerced regime change in Tehran. Many commentators criticized the statement for aligning with Israel’s aggressive stance against Iran, similar to how the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK) aligned with and fought for Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war. “This is not the Iranian people’s war; it is the war of Ali Khamenei and his regime,” stated Pahlavi. “The Iranian people are not your enemies. The Islamic Republic is the common enemy of all peace-loving people in our region,” Pahlavi continued. Pahlavi did not condemn any of Israel’s actions in Gaza or Lebanon or threats to target Iranian civilian infrastructure.
Pahlavi asserted that there would be no power vacuum after a possible collapse of the Islamic Republic, stating, “We will not allow a power vacuum. A broad coalition of patriotic Iranians, both inside and outside the country, is ready to step in and establish peace.” On this score, the experience of the U.S. invasion of Iraq does not inspire great confidence in Pahlavi’s claim, as the removal of the Saddam Hussein regime opened a power vacuum and sparked a bloody, years-long sectarian civil war.
At the same time, a group of 360 academics, political figures, and civil society activists issued an anti-war statement, denouncing both Iran’s involvement in regional proxy wars and Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Signatories included notable figures such as Ervand Abrahamian, Touraj Atabaki, Mehrangiz Kar, Reza Alijani, Mohammad Reza Nikfar, and Shirin Ebadi. The statement condemned both sides of the conflict for escalating tensions and contributing to the humanitarian crisis, which includes death, displacement, repression, and the rise of extremism.
“The Islamic Republic and its fundamentalist allies have taken the Palestinian people’s aspirations hostage, while the Netanyahu government fuels war in the Middle East under the guise of a ‘new order,'” the statement read. It urged international bodies, including the United Nations, human rights organizations, and advocates for peace and democracy, to pressure all parties involved to agree on an immediate ceasefire. “End the madness of the merchants of death,” the signatories implored. “Defending peace is defending freedom and human dignity.”
As the specter of war looms over the region, voices for peace continue to push back against the forces driving the conflict, calling for an urgent halt to the violence and a renewed commitment to dialogue and stability.
Internet conditions in Iran have reached a critical low, with numerous businesses that rely heavily on online access struggling with disruption due to censorship, slow speeds, and network instability. The public’s frustration is growing, particularly regarding the unfulfilled promises made by President Masoud Pezeshkian during his campaign to address internet filtering.
On Monday, Communications Minister Sattar Hashemi attributed the recent slowdown in internet speed to a “global problem,” allegedly caused by “increased content production” in the digital space. Addressing reporters on Wednesday, October 9, Hashemi responded to questions about whether internet censorship would be lifted, stating, “This is not a question that can be answered with a simple yes or no. There needs to be a smart and lawful approach to managing this space.” He refrained from giving a clear answer on internet filtering but called for stricter control over the sale of “illegal VPNs.”
Hashemi’s claim sparked widespread reactions, even among government supporters, with many social media users demanding his resignation. Iran, the official newspaper of the Iranian government, addressed the filtering issue on October 9, calling it an “unchangeable promise” of the administration. The article stated, “Can filtering be removed by just pressing a button? Voters expect this issue to be resolved, but there’s a subtle point: ‘Change’ doesn’t come with a button that, when pressed, magically fixes everything.”
The government’s continued emphasis on managing internet access through restrictions rather than addressing the root causes of public discontent has left many questioning the prospects for meaningful reform.
On Tuesday, October 8, Mehdi Tabatabaei, Deputy of Communications and Information at the Presidential Office, reiterated the government’s pledge to provide high-speed internet and ease internet restrictions. “The issues surrounding internet speed and filtering will be resolved through a legal and reasonable process to meet the public’s legitimate expectations,” he stated. His comments came in response to the backlash over statements made a day earlier by Communications Minister Sattar Hashemi.
A group of 39 Iranian lawmakers has called for a reassessment of the country’s defense doctrine, according to a member of the Parliament’s Cultural Commission. Hassani Ekhlaqi Amiri revealed that the legislators submitted a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, advocating for a “review of the Islamic Republic’s defense strategy” in light of escalating regional tensions.
Amiri, in an interview with ISNA, stressed the need to bolster Iran’s defensive capabilities, arguing that “no international organization or even European and American powers can control Israel today.” The lawmaker referenced Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s religious decree prohibiting nuclear weapons as a cornerstone of the country’s defense policy. He noted that while this fatwa remains in place, within Shia jurisprudence, “time and circumstances” can affect rulings, allowing secondary decrees to override primary ones when necessary.
The call for change comes amid heightened tensions. In May, Iran’s current Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, then Secretary of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, warned that Israel’s threats could force nations to rethink their nuclear stance. Araghchi’s remarks followed earlier comments from Kamal Kharazi, head of the same council, who suggested that Iran might consider developing nuclear weapons if faced with significant threats. “If Israel acts aggressively, we may have to reconsider our nuclear doctrine,” Kharazi stated.
Following the letter’s submission, Mohammad Reza Sabbaghian Bafghi, a parliament member, openly advocated for developing nuclear weapons to enhance Iran’s deterrence capabilities. In an interview with Iran Watch, he responded to recent Israeli statements about targeting Iran’s nuclear, oil, and refinery facilities by calling for a change in the country’s nuclear strategy. “Our request to the authorities is to revise the Islamic Republic’s nuclear doctrine. For the sake of national defense and security, under the guidance of the leadership, we should pursue the same weapons that they possess. Building a nuclear weapon is a viable option for Iran to establish deterrence,” he declared.
Sabbaghian added that if Khamenei were to revise his fatwa on the prohibition of nuclear arms, producing such weapons would be “easy for us.” He further warned that if Israel threatens Iran’s energy security, “all of Israel’s oil facilities and those of its allies” would become “legitimate targets” for the Islamic Republic.
Additionally, Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini and a figure close to the reformists, called for enhancing the deterrence capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran, stating that the country’s military deterrence should be taken to a higher level. Some interpreted his remarks as an endorsement of developing a nuclear bomb. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has repeatedly warned that Iran’s nuclear advancements have pushed it closer and closer to the threshold of weaponization.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that President Pezeshkian’s administration has submitted a request to the Expediency Council to revisit Iran’s stalled efforts to adopt Financial Action Task Force (FATF) recommendations. Recent political developments indicate the current government is keen on reviewing the preconditions set by FATF, the global anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing body. However, a decision on adopting the FATF recommendations would require coordination among multiple legislative and executive bodies.
The renewed push for the FATF began when the Executive Deputy and Acting Head of the Presidential Office, speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting, confirmed that the government had sent a letter to the Expediency Council requesting a review of the FATF file. He added that the issue would require a domestic consensus. Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati recently announced that the president had instructed officials to take necessary steps to lift FATF-related restrictions in line with national interests, while also addressing internal concerns. Hemmati noted, “Through cooperation and unity, we have already eased financial restrictions, and important updates regarding the FATF will be shared soon.”
Omid Karimian, a member of Iran’s parliament, stated that resolving the FATF issue requires the government to present a convincing bill that protects national interests. In an interview with ILNA, Karimian commented on Economy Minister Hemmati’s remarks, saying, “If the government can find a solution that preserves national dignity and sovereignty, it will benefit both the country and the negotiating parties.”
Discussions on Iran’s FATF membership resurfaced with the start of the new administration, and the Economy Minister has signaled the government’s determination to address the issue. During his first press conference, President Masoud Pezeshkian stated, “The system has no choice but to resolve this matter.” The Rouhani administration tried and failed to secure final approval of the FATF recommendations following the adoption of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
While some are expected to challenge approval of FATF recommendations, at least two members of the Expediency Council have expressed surprise about the reported letter. In a conversation with ILNA, one council member said, “No letter has been received from the government yet. If a letter is submitted, it will be added to the agenda for discussion.” Meanwhile, Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, another council member, suggested that if the president personally defends the FATF with strong arguments, the council’s stance could change, but added that the council’s position has not shifted thus far.
Seyed Mostafa Mirsalim, when asked about the main obstacles to FATF approval, noted, “The only issue is the sanctions. If the sanctions are lifted, we have no problem and are actually stricter than FATF in some respects.” Another council member, Ghorbanali Dorri-Najafabadi, also expressed no knowledge of the letter but acknowledged hearing about the president’s intention to submit one. “If the president wishes, the Expediency Council will certainly revisit the FATF review, though the outcome remains uncertain,” he said. These remarks come as Mirsalim emphasized that there have been no meetings on the FATF issue within the council for the past two years, highlighting the prolonged stalemate on the matter.
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