Daily News Brief

October 11, 2024

Top of the Agenda

The grassroots Japanese group of atomic bomb survivors won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize for their work to shore up the “powerful international norm” that resorting to nuclear weapons is morally unacceptable, the prize committee said. The group was founded in 1956 by survivors of the U.S. bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which killed some two hundred thousand people and wounded over six hundred thousand more. The group’s president, Minomaki Tomoyuki, called for the abolition of nuclear weapons in their lifetimes, while also acknowledging the growing threat of their deployment, including by Russia. None of the nuclear-armed permanent members of the UN Security Council have signed a UN treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons use; notably, nor has Japan, though Nihon Hidankyo has urged it to do so.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee, too, said in the prize announcement that it was alarming to see the nuclear taboo under pressure in recent years. The award comes amid warnings of nuclear threats in multiple world regions, including from Iran and North Korea. Yesterday, Tehran warned of a potential change in its nuclear doctrine if Israel targeted its facilities. (Nikkei, NYT, Kyodo, Nobel Prize, FT)

Analysis

“Momentum toward abolishment of nuclear weapons has stalled in recent years, as member parties at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference failed to adopt a report in 2022 due to opposition from Russia, the second straight time since 2015,” Kyodo writes.

“If nuclear norms continue to break down, the world might become a much more dangerous place,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Doreen Horschig and Heather Williams write for Foreign Affairs. “The threats to the nuclear order offer an opportunity for consensus building.”

“Winning a Nobel can draw global attention and support to incredibly courageous people and support and attention to important causes,” CFR expert Carla Anne Robbins says on The World Next Week podcast.

Pacific Rim

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will take steps that include allowing a longer timeline for import tariff cuts in order to fast-track East Timor’s initiation into the club, country representatives said at the group’s Laos summit. Several diplomats told Nikkei they expect East Timor to become the eleventh member by 2025 or 2026. (Nikkei)

At this CFR event, U.S. ambassadors discuss the relationship between ASEAN and Washington. 

South and Central Asia

Armed men attacked a private coal mine in Pakistan’s southwest region of Balochistan late last night and killed twenty people, officials said. Separatist militants have carried out a string of attacks in the country in recent months as Islamabad is preparing to host a major security conference, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, next week. (AP, Dawn)

India: The main opposition Congress party complained to election authorities over alleged irregularities in the vote in Haryana state, where the ruling party won the ticket. Their complaint was rare in a country where parties have generally accepted election results. Election authorities called the move “unprecedented” and assured they would examine the matter. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

Israeli air strikes in central Beirut yesterday appeared to be the deadliest attack on Lebanon’s capital since fighting broke out more than a year ago, killing at least 22 people and wounding at least 117, Lebanese officials said. Israel did not immediately comment, nor was it immediately clear if the apparent target of the strikes survived. The strikes came hours after the United Nations said that Israel had fired on peacekeeping posts in Northern Lebanon; Israel said Hezbollah operates from areas near the posts. (BBC, NYT) 

In this YouTube Short, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Dana L. Stroul portends what’s in Lebanon’s future after Israel’s invasion. 

Jordan/Europe: Jordan’s King Abdullah II is meeting with nine southern European leaders as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Cyprus today to discuss ways to de-escalate the war in the Middle East, including protecting Lebanese residents in the crossfire between Israel and Hezbollah, and drawing up a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. (AP)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Kenya’s president declared the deployment at a joint press conference with Haiti’s prime minister in Nairobi today. Four hundred Kenyan officers are currently stationed in Haiti as part of a multinational security mission that took off in June. (Reuters)

Africa: Only one-fifth of the resources necessary to address a food insecurity crisis in southern Africa have trickled in, a UN World Food Program official said today, citing “all the competing emergencies going on across the world.” Around twenty-seven million people are food insecure after a worst-in-century drought and the region still needs some $300 million to fill the gap, the program said. (Bloomberg)

For Think Global Health, Ertharin Cousin and Meghan O'Hearn look at ways to revolutionize the global food system. 

Europe

Prime Minister Michel Barnier said the proposed budget for next year meant to preserve “the credibility of the French signature” amid a widening deficit. Firms with revenues over $1 billion would see a temporary two-year tax. The government would also tax share buybacks. (FT)

Ukraine: Washington aims to participate in a new Group of Seven (G7) loan upwards of $50 billion to Ukraine even if European Union sanctions on Russian assets in the bloc are not extended, unnamed U.S. and EU officials told the Financial Times. Washington had originally made its participation contingent on the extension of the sanctions regime. (FT)

This Expert Brief by CFR’s Paul B. Stares and Molly Carlough gets into why this U.S. election is pivotal for Ukraine.

Americas

Since Venezuela’s crackdown after its heavily disputed July election, the number of irregular Venezuelan migrants traveling north-bound through the jungle border between Panama and Colombia has sharply trended up, Refugees International said. The total number of migrants who passed through the border area, known as the Darién Gap, stands at around the same level as this time last year, but with a spike from August to September, according to Panamanian government numbers. (AP)

For the Latin America’s Moment blog, CFR expert Will Freeman weighs the role of Venezuela’s neighbors after its controversial vote. 

Mexico: The Senate passed a bill yesterday to schedule the election of new Supreme Court judges by mid-2025, part of a recent controversial judicial reform. It now heads to the country’s lower house of congress. (Reuters)

U.S. Campaign 2024

Former President Donald Trump said in Detroit yesterday that if elected, he would renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in order to address concerns about Chinese vehicles. He also pledged to make interest on car loans tax deductible. (NYT, Reuters)

Friday Editor’s Pick

The Associated Press profiles how a group of elderly South Korean women learning how to read transformed into Seoul’s oldest rap sensation. 

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