Daily News Brief

October 10, 2024

Top of the Agenda

U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke yesterday for the first time in more than a month in what the White House called a “direct and productive” call. Israel continues to mull its response to Iran’s missile attack last week; Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who delayed a planned visit to Washington yesterday, said in a video released last night that the retaliation would be “deadly, precise, and above all, surprising.” 

While the United States and Israel did not release details on the leaders’ call yesterday, it also comes as Israel expands its ground campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Countries and aid organizations have ramped up humanitarian assistance to Lebanon as the Israeli raids target the country’s south and prompt widespread evacuations. U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said yesterday that “there should be no kind of military action in Lebanon that looks anything like Gaza and leaves a result [that is] anything like Gaza." (The Guardian, Times of Israel, FP, Reuters)

Analysis

“As its second year begins, the war must be redefined as a fight for liberty and stability. Not only Israel but its allies, too, must take advantage of the window of time that exists before Iran can go nuclear. They must bring about a strategic shift that would secure Israel’s future and foster long-term stability in the Middle East,” Israeli journalist Ari Shavit writes for Foreign Affairs. 

“Lebanon is now facing one of the biggest displacements of people in its history, further compounding pressures on a country that has long been mired in economic and political instability,” Foreign Policy’s Christina Lu writes. “The growing crisis in Lebanon comes as international humanitarian efforts are facing an enormous funding gap.”

In the latest episode of The President’s Inbox, Amy Hawthorne and CFR’s Steven A. Cook assess the widening war in the Middle East and the challenge it poses for the United States.

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. departed from the typical focus on trade at talks today between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), calling for negotiations to confront maritime tensions in the South China Sea. He said that economic security could not be separated from political security, an unnamed Southeast Asian diplomat who was at the meeting told reporters. (Nikkei, AFP)

This Expert Brief by CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick and Abigail McGowan details how South China Sea tensions are boosting the U.S.-Philippines military partnership.

Taiwan: President Lai Ching-te said that China “has no right” to represent Taiwan in his National Day speech, adding that he was willing to work with Beijing on issues such as climate change, disease prevention, and maintaining regional security. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson responded to his remarks saying that Beijing was the “sole legal representative” of China. (WaPo)

South and Central Asia

China and Pakistan will work together on the security effort ahead of a meeting next week of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said. A separatist group’s suicide bombing over the weekend killed two Chinese nationals. (Reuters, The Diplomat)

India/Pakistan: The head of Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab called for “climate diplomacy” with its neighbor India to tackle large amounts of smog that were spreading in the region of the two countries’ borders, and are expected to worsen as the temperatures drop this winter. Relations between the two countries have been rockier since their downgrading of diplomatic ties in 2019. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

Today’s loss comes after Riyadh also couldn't muster a 2020 attempt to get on the council. It has sought to bolster its international reputation in recent years on certain rights issues, but groups such as Human Rights Watch objected ahead of the vote to Saudi authorities’ actions against Ethiopian migrants and to the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The United States announced last month it would not seek reeelection to the council, while Thailand won one of the new spots. (Reuters, AP)

CFR Senior Fellow David J. Scheffer writes the world is sleepwalking through Thailand’s growing denial of human rights. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Egypt’s foreign ministry said the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader’s claim that Cairo’s fighters supported an attack on the group was “groundless.” The RSF is battling the Sudanese government in the country’s civil war and said that Egypt had long been involved but recently “intensified” its role to be directly engaged in the fighting. (Bloomberg, Sudan Tribune)

Kenya: A push to remove Kenya’s Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua moved on to the Senate after he was impeached in the lower legislative house. Gachagua has fallen out with President William Ruto in recent months. (VOA)

Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is meeting today with the leaders of the United Kingdom (UK) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in London and then is heading on to France and Italy to discuss the ongoing war. The meetings come after President Biden canceled a planned trip to Europe due to Hurricane Milton. European Union (EU) countries yesterday backed a new $45 billion loan to Ukraine, though U.S. participation in the loan was reportedly thrown into doubt when Hungary and Slovakia said they would not support the extension of an EU sanctions regime against Russia. (BBC, FT) 

Germany: Berlin’s economy is projected to shrink for a second consecutive year in 2024, the economy minister said yesterday. The government previously forecast that it would grow 0.3 percent. The minister cited “structural factors” including a lack of investment in infrastructure. Germany holds federal elections next year. (Politico)

Americas

Mexico will “mobilize all legitimate interests in favor of North America” amid economic tensions between Beijing and Washington, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said at a business forum. In informal talks, the new Mexican government has encouraged companies operating in the country to shift production of some of their inputs from Asia to Mexico, Mexico’s deputy trade minister told the Wall Street Journal. (AP, WSJ)

This In Brief by CFR expert Brad W. Setser looks at how U.S. imports from Mexico surpassed China. 

Ecuador: The United States announced visa bans on former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa, former Vice President Jorge Glas, and their families, saying they accepted bribes in exchange for favorable government contracts. (AP)

U.S. Campaign 2024

Election boards in storm-hit counties will be allowed to adjust voting hours, change voting sites, and allow absentee ballots to be returned to a wider range of recipients thanks to state legislation passed yesterday. The storm damaged infrastructure in many western parts of the state. (Reuters)

CFR held a U.S. Foreign Policy Public Forum that explored the trade, national security, and other issues at stake for voters in the election with Arizona State University yesterday in Phoenix. 

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