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Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine Kamala Harris’s proposal to subsidize first-time homebuyers, Democrats’ vulnerability on education policy, and long-term trends in manufacturing jobs.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. The Cost of Harris’s Housing Plan
Topline: Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed <[link removed]> $25,000 in down payment assistance
for four million first-time homebuyers. However, AEI’s Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter calculate <[link removed]> that, over four years, the cumulative effect of her plan would inflate home prices across the national housing market by $1 trillion.

Breakdown: Over the plan’s proposed four-year implementation, they estimate that:


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The total increase in home prices paid by expected homebuyers ($177 billion) would exceed the benefit of the subsidy ($100 billion).

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Midwestern metro areas, which already have above-average home price appreciation, will see the largest price increases.

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75% of all home sales nationally will be in areas affected by this program.



The Problem: Pinto and Peter explain that in a market with historically low inventory, policies that increase the demand for housing would result in increases in home prices across the nation.






“My conclusion is that [Harris’s] housing plan would be worse than doing
nothing.” 
—Edward Pinto
2. Downballot Battle: Education
Topline: AEI’s Ruy Teixeira highlights <[link removed]> that downballot Democrats are especially vulnerable on education policies. He finds that Democrats’ stances on affirmative action and lowering achievement standards are out of step with most Americans’ views.


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A poll taken after the Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling against affirmative action found 74% of Americans agreed that race should not be a factor in admissions.

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Similarly, a recent RMG Research poll found that 74% of registered voters favor preserving high academic standards for all races while seeking to close racial disparities.




Hard Pivot: To counter this political disadvantage, Teixeira suggests that Democrats support policies that depoliticize schools, uphold high achievement standards, expand school choice, and support class-based affirmative action.




“Democrats should forthrightly oppose the watering down of academic standards in the name of equity and defend elite programs based on academic merit and rigorous tests.” 
—Ruy Teixeira
3. Trend Line: Manufacturing Jobs
Topline: Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have promised to increase American manufacturing jobs, but AEI’s Michael Strain finds <[link removed]> that neither has succeeded. The share of manufacturing employment in the US has significantly declined since World War II and has remained less than 10% since 2008.

Why? According to Strain, this decline is largely because technology—including robotics and automation—has increased workers’ productivity.

As a
Result: Increased productivity in manufacturing jobs results in higher wages and improved living standards for workers. Also, Strain notes notable growth in other middle-wage jobs.




“Economic policy should be focused on connecting workers to the jobs of the future rather than trying in vain to
recreate the jobs of the past.” 
—Michael Strain
Last but Not Least . . .
4 Million in the Dark: Hurricane Helene <[link removed]>
China is Rapidly Building Warships <[link removed]>
Special thanks to Carter Hutchinson, Hannah Bowen, and Drew Kirkpatrick!
Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!
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