May 7, 2020
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Another 3.1 million apply for initial unemployment as economy poised to reopen, more than 33.5 million in total since March, but how long will it keep going up?
Another 3.169 million
Americans applied for initial unemployment claims last week, the Department of
Labor reports, as the total now runs up to 33.5 million who have lost their
jobs in the government-directed closures of the U.S. economy in response to the
COVID-19 pandemic to save as many lives as possible. Add to that the 5.8
million who already were unemployed a little more than a month ago when
unemployment was at a 50-year low of 3.5 percent, and suddenly, horribly the
effective rate — different from the reported rate we’ll see tomorrow — could
already be 23.7 percent, with about 39.3 million jobless. For perspective,
unemployment peaked in the Great Depression at about 25 percent, but at the
present rate of layoffs amid the closures, the U.S. economy could speed past
that this week. And at 33.3 million, we could already be four times the number
of job losses from the 2008-2009 recession of 8.3 million. Economic devastation
like we are seeing right now has never been seen in modern history. But the
real question, since these are state government-directed closures, is how long
the pain will continue even after states begin reopening this month and in
June?
Video: Options trader says COVID-19 market isn't so bad
Mike Nelson has been trading
for years upon years. Though he has never seen anything like COVID-19, he says
it has been good for his business. Hear why the market has not been such a
scary place.
Liberal billionaire John Arnold has more dollars than sense
Liberal billionaire John
Arnold makes no sense. He is worried that the country’s population will
decline, but he generously supports the abortion lobby. He is concerned about
global warming, but he tore down a historic, old mansion to build a new 20,000
square-foot home, which cannot possibly have a tiny “carbon footprint.” He
wants to help catch criminals while he works to get them released quickly
before trial – and then after sentencing if a pandemic occurs. Concern for the
rights and wellbeing of prisoners is commendable, but the safety of the public
should take precedence. John Arnold has schizophrenically jumped on the latest
crusade of the wealthy elites, the almost blind support for convicted and
imprisoned criminals. For example, he wants to eliminate bail and put more
criminals back out onto the streets faster, while at least in Baltimore have
spies in the skies to presumably return them to jail.Like a good liberal, John
Arnold appears to be more worried about criminals than he is the general
public. No doubt, Arnold has a fancy security system at his home and armed
security to keep him and his family safe – so he has little reason to fear
being a victim of violent crime, unlike those who he would disarm with his
wrong-headed gun control push. Rather than cater to the whims of out-of-touch
billionaires, policymakers should focus on protecting the lives and property of
those most vulnerable to criminals, including the elderly, the poor, and the
working class.
Another 3.1 million apply for initial unemployment as economy poised to reopen, more than 33.5 million in total since March, but how long will it keep going up?
By Robert Romano
Another 3.169 million Americans applied for initial unemployment claims last week, the Department of Labor reports, as the total now runs up to 33.5 million who have lost their jobs in the government-directed closures of the U.S. economy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to save as many lives as possible.
Add to that the 5.8 million who already were unemployed a little more than a month ago when unemployment was at a 50-year low of 3.5 percent, and suddenly, horribly the effective rate — different from the reported rate we’ll see tomorrow — could already be 23.7 percent, with about 39.3 million jobless.
For perspective, unemployment peaked in the Great Depression at about 25 percent, but at the present rate of layoffs amid the closures, the U.S. economy could speed past that this week.
And at 33.3 million, we could already be four times the number of job losses from the 2008-2009 recession of 8.3 million. Economic devastation like we are seeing right now has never been seen in modern history.
But the real question, since these are state government-directed closures, is how long the pain will continue even after states begin reopening this month and in June?
The trouble is recessions have momentum to them. It doesn’t really matter why or how they start. You start out at the top of the mountain, at peak employment, with everything looking like it was going great, and then you descend into the valley of a period of time until you hit the bottom.
Again, in modern history, since the end of World War II, in 10 recessions, that period from top to bottom has lasted about 11 months. Can anyone imagine what the economy would look like if these quantities of job losses were to continue for another 10 months? What if it goes on even longer? The last recession, it took 25 months before all the job losses were realized on a net basis. If that happens, there wouldn’t be any economy left to return to.
That is why Americans for Limited Government has launched ReopenAmericaNow.org to urge states to safely reopen their economies now that we are in May and we enter Phase One of the Trump administration’s plan to reopen the country.
The economic devastation can in turn become a mortal threat to liberty, as government intervention takes over for what was just a month ago sheer grit, determination and individual productivity. Now we all just sit around and wait for a return to prosperity that could be years away.
That is not to take anything from the heroic efforts of our nation’s doctors, nurses and medical personnel, and those manning the supplies at our grocery stores, farms and food distribution, who are risking their lives every day to combat the Chinese originated virus and to keep the nation sustained, respectively.
Nor to downplay the significance of the now $2.7 trillion that can be leveraged up to $6 trillion by Congress and the Federal Reserve to save small and large businesses, sustain municipal and corporate bond markets. Those are important.
But are they enough? We are entering a highly uncertain period, mostly because as bad as all the prior recessions have been, it has never been the case that almost the entire global economy has shut down all at once as a matter of public policy. There will be consequences, those that we’ve already seen — and the unintended consequences that remain downstream from our present position.
Unknown factors to do with the 33.3 million job losses figure include how many jobs have been saved by payroll protection since the initial unemployment claims, and therefore how successful the government’s economic rescue has been.
We’ll have more information when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the monthly unemployment report on May 8 and when we see how many people remained on unemployment assistance through April with continued claims.
All that said, it is President Donald Trump’s job to be a cheerleader for America and for the economy, and to lead us out of this mess. He needs to be optimistic, that voice of calm in the midst of this storm. The truth is, we need President Trump’s leadership more than ever. As soon as we hit the bottom, we need to bounce back like you’ve never seen, Mr. President.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Video: Options trader says COVID-19 market isn't so bad
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHOU4wXKM3A
Liberal billionaire John Arnold has more dollars than sense
By Richard McCarty
Liberal billionaire John Arnold makes no sense. He is worried that the country’s population will decline, but he generously supports the abortion lobby. He is concerned about global warming, but he tore down a historic, old mansion to build a new 20,000 square-foot home, which cannot possibly have a tiny “carbon footprint.” He wants to help catch criminals while he works to get them released quickly before trial – and then after sentencing if a pandemic occurs. Concern for the rights and wellbeing of prisoners is commendable, but the safety of the public should take precedence.
Arnold paid for a spy plane to fly over Baltimore, Maryland and record images to help police solve crimes, but he did not inform the city’s residents or their elected leaders. Unsurprisingly, some residents were not thrilled once news broke about the spying program, and it was quickly halted. Arnold then offered to pay for three planes to surveil the city. After months of consideration, city officials finally approved the use of the planes. Unfortunately, surveilling honest citizens seems to be all the rage in today’s world of quarantining all rather than focusing upon the sick and most vulnerable.
Of course, John Arnold has schizophrenically jumped on the latest crusade of the wealthy elites, the almost blind support for convicted and imprisoned criminals. For example, he wants to eliminate bail and put more criminals back out onto the streets faster, while at least in Baltimore have spies in the skies to presumably return them to jail. To further his agenda, the often-wrong but idea-filled billionaire paid to create a “public safety assessment” tool to advise judges on which suspects are safe to release before their trials.
While having an objective tool might sound like a good idea, people are complex; and it is far from clear that a tool using a simple formula can adequately assess which offenders are likely to reoffend. As previously reported, the Arnold tool utterly failed in assessing the dangerousness of a pair of armed robbery suspects. Two Indiana residents, wearing hoodies and gloves, allegedly entered a New Orleans pharmacy to rob it. The alleged assailants bound two employees with zip ties, and engaged in a shootout with police as they attempted to flee injuring an officer. Incredibly, Arnold’s assessment tool assigned these suspects the lowest risk score possible – a 1 out of 6.
Certainly, judges can make mistakes, but public safety should be better served by judges carefully evaluating arrestees, rather than relying on some random billionaire’s formula. After all, that is what judges are paid to do – use their best judgment to free the innocent while keeping society safe from dangerous criminals.
But it does not end there for Arnold; now he would like to free convicted criminals because they might contract the coronavirus in jail, which is a terrible idea. A few weeks ago, he tweeted: “49 inmates and 65 employees of the Harris County jail system have tested positive for Covid-19. Even if you're not sympathetic to those incarcerated (though you should be), safely decreasing jail populations is necessary for the health of the staff.”
On the other hand, according to a recent survey of thousands of prisoners in four states, nearly all prisoners – 96%, in fact – who tested positive for the coronavirus had no symptoms. Out of more than 170,000 federal prisoners, there have been only 42 coronavirus deaths. Furthermore, out of more than 134,000 Texas state prisoners, there have only been about 20 coronavirus deaths. So at this point, it seems like a huge overreaction to just start freeing inmates because they might contract the virus.
Unsurprisingly, a number of criminals who have been released due to the pandemic are reoffending within just days or weeks of their release. A Florida convict was recently charged for a murder that took place just a week after his release. Dozens of New York criminals who were released have already been rearrested for crimes, including a convicted murderer who attempted to rob a bank after being released. Finally, a Utah convict, who had been released from a halfway house just a few days before, broke into a woman’s house, tied her up, told her he was going to rob her, and threatened to kill her. Thankfully, her young son was awakened by her screams and called the police, who were able to rearrest the thug.
Even if there were merit to just throwing open the jail doors, where would these inmates go? Would they move in with older relatives and endanger their health? Would they live on the streets, where they might also pick up the coronavirus? How many of these criminals is John Arnold willing to house at his palatial estate? After all, they have to go somewhere.
In addition to his bad criminal justice reform ideas, Arnold also supports gun control, which makes it harder for law-abiding citizens to defend themselves from criminals. In 2018, Arnold’s foundation announced that it was giving tens of millions of dollars to the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research and promised to raise even more. Furthermore, the foundation hired Jeremy Travis, who played a key role in crafting New York City’s gun ban, to serve as its Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice.
Like a good liberal, John Arnold appears to be more worried about criminals than he is the general public. No doubt, Arnold has a fancy security system at his home and armed security to keep him and his family safe – so he has little reason to fear being a victim of violent crime, unlike those who he would disarm with his wrong-headed gun control push. Rather than cater to the whims of out-of-touch billionaires, policymakers should focus on protecting the lives and property of those most vulnerable to criminals, including the elderly, the poor, and the working class.
Richard McCarty is the Director of Research at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.