Daily News Brief

October 9, 2024

Top of the Agenda

More than 5.5 million people were under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders as of yesterday as Hurricane Milton barreled toward Florida’s west coast. It is expected to make landfall late today or early tomorrow and has already prompted the activation of thousands of National Guard troops and for President Joe Biden to cancel a planned international trip to oversee response efforts. Milton comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene left a path of destruction across the southeast, killing at least 232 people. Hurricane Helene was the second-deadliest storm to touch the United States mainland in the last fifty years and underscored the new storm capabilities posed by global warming. 

The rainfall from Hurricane Helene was made around 10 percent heavier due to climate change, the network of scientists World Weather Attribution (WWA) said in a study today. The Gulf of Mexico is significantly hotter than average, driving more powerful storms. Federal and Florida authorities urged residents to take evacuation orders seriously, and the chief of the Federal Emergency Management Authority warned against spreading false information about hurricanes, saying the hurricane misinformation in this bout of storms is the “worst” she’d ever seen. (NYT, AP, CNN, WWA)

Analysis

“We talk a lot about sea level rise over the next fifty to a hundred to a hundred fifty years about potentially cities being inundated,” CFR Senior Fellow Varun Sivaram tells The President’s Inbox podcast. “Beyond that, there's an increasing scientific consensus...on the increasing incidence of natural disasters, and we've seen at home: wildfires, floods, natural catastrophes that have driven up property insurance prices for ordinary Americans.”

“If we are going to withstand this new era of extreme weather, we need to be honest about what has become the most expensive and deadly kind of natural disaster in the country,” science journalist Porter Fox writes in the New York Times. “As long as hurricanes continue to be treated like one-off disasters, recovery efforts will play from behind.”

Middle East and North Africa

Yoav Gallant pushed a trip to Washington that would have included talks at the Pentagon today, a U.S. military spokesperson said. Hezbollah launched some 180 projectiles yesterday, while Syria and Iran blamed Israel for a strike in Damascus that reportedly killed seven people and wounded eleven others. Israel did not immediately comment on the strike. (NYT, WaPo)

Egypt/Palestinian territories: Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah are holding a governance dialogue today in Cairo, a Hamas official and unnamed Egyptian security sources said. The talks come as Gaza’s Health Ministry reported forty-two thousand Palestinians have died in Hamas’s war with Israel. (Reuters, EFE, AP)

For Think Global Health, Cyril Bennouna and Ilana Seff explore supporting mental health for Arab, Jewish, and Muslim youth in the war.

Pacific Rim

Thailand proposed Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries hold informal talks in December on Myanmar’s political crisis, given the low progress on the bloc’s previous approach to Myanmar. Leaders of ASEAN nations are also discussing broader economic and security relations at a summit in Laos today; top diplomats from the United States and China are set to attend. (VOA)

North Korea/South Korea: North Korea’s military will block roads and rail lines connecting it to South Korea beginning today and “fortify” parts of the North Korean side with new defense installations, state media reported. Pyongyang said it was responding to South Korean and U.S. military movements in the region and that it sent a phone message to the U.S. military in Seoul to prevent misunderstandings about its new actions. (Yonhap)

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action gathers the updates on the North Korea crisis.

South and Central Asia

Jammu and Kashmir’s first local election since the stripping of its semiautonomous status in 2019 chose the largest party that openly called for a return to its special status. India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the election in Haryana state bordering New Delhi, defeating the opposition Congress party, which took six constituencies. (AP)

Pakistan/Saudi Arabia: The two countries will sign some $2 billion worth of cooperation agreements on a Saudi visit to Islamabad that begins today, Pakistan’s prime minister said. (Dawn)

Sub-Saharan Africa

As Mozambicans head to the polls today, the ruling Frelimo party that has governed Mozambique since its independence from Portugal in 1975 was in a strong position ahead; it still faces a surge of popularity for outsider candidate Venâncio Mondlane. Frelimo is running its first presidential candidate born after the country’s independence, Daniel Chapo. (The Guardian) 

For the Africa In Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin looks at the trend of ruling parties gearing up for elections. 

Zimbabwe: Black farmers who received land seized from white Zimbanweans more than twenty years back in a land reform program under then President Robert Mugabe will be allowed to sell the land and use it as collateral for loans, Zimbabwe’s government announced. Until now, the farmers had leases on the land but not tenure. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Russian troops and defense ministry scientific centers used chemical weapons, including the toxic choking agent chloropicrin, on the battlefield in Ukraine, London said in announcing its sanctions yesterday. Chloropicrin is banned under an international treaty known as the Chemical Weapons Convention. The move mimics a similar action by the United States in May. (Bloomberg, BBC)

Brussels/Hungary: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized Budapest’s stances on China and Ukraine in an unusually blunt speech, including Hungary’s permission for Chinese police to operate in the country and a program easing entry for Russian and Belarusian nationals. She also criticized those who blame the war in Ukraine “not on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom.” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he was “surprised” by the speech. (Reuters)

Americas

The Supreme Court lifted a suspension order on social network X after it paid fines and carried out account takedowns in accordance with court orders. The court had said the takedowns were necessary on grounds of democratic integrity, while X had originally protested them as censorship. The company said it “will continue to defend freedom of speech, within the boundaries of the law.” (NYT, Reuters)

Colombia: Electoral authorities voted to open a probe into alleged irregularities in President Gustavo Petro’s campaign financing. The head of Colombia’s state oil company Ricardo Roa, who chaired the campaign, is also being investigated. Roa denied wrongdoing, while Petro called the probe a “coup.” (Bloomberg)

For the Latin America’s Moment blog, CFR expert Will Freeman explains why “total peace” is dead for Petro. 

U.S. Campaign 2024

U.S. authorities arrested a twenty-seven-year-old Afghan national in Oklahoma City who was planning a “terrorist attack” in the name of the self-declared Islamic State on voting day, the Department of Justice said. An indictment said he had searched for information on how to access cameras in Washington, DC and for states that did not require a license to buy a gun. The man described his plans in a post-arrest interview, the indictment said. (Reuters, CBS) 

This report by CFR expert Jacob Ware looks at the heightened risk of election violence this year. 

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