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It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.
HOW REPUBLICANS COULD TAKE THE SENATE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
Former President Donald Trump appointed the three Supreme Court justices who shifted the direction of the court and of law in America, from abortion to affirmative action to the federal power itself.
But it was the U.S. Senate that opened the door for them, and which sat them on the court.
The battle to control the Senate is now every bit as intense as the one for the White House, with several races setting multimillion-dollar records. As part of our series mapping out the 2024 election, let’s take a close look at the fight for the "most exclusive club."
The basics
Currently: 51 senators are in the working coalition of Democrats and independents.* Republicans have 49 senators.
*This includes Sens. Angus King of Maine, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont who caucus with Democrats, as well as Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who does not caucus with Democrats weekly but who votes with them in matters of organizing and determining the Senate majority.
The map: On the ballot this year are 34 Senate seats. Democrats start with a disadvantage. They are defending 23 of those seats. Republicans are defending just 11.
To take over the Senate, Republicans do not need to do much. They need either a net gain of 1 seat if they also win the White House (and with it the ability to break ties), or a net gain of 2 seats if they don’t win the White House.
The key races
Of those 34 Senate seats on the ballot this year, just eleven are considered remotely competitive by the Cook Political Report. Add to that one likely flip and you have 12 key races to watch that will most likely determine the future of the Senate.
Here’s the landscape:
The most likely flip. In West Virginia, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin’s retirement has opened up a seat that almost certainly will flip to Republican. (The Cook Political Report rates this likely a “Solid Republican” seat now, meaning it is nearly a sure thing that the GOP wins it.)
The next most likely flip. Bringing a different set of mountains and a different political problem for Senate Democrats, in Montana, dirt farmer and Sen. Jon Tester is in the political fight of his life. Polls have consistently shown him down seven or eight points behind his opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy.
Two toss-ups. Next, Democrats have to defend two seats that are toss-ups. Those are in Michigan and Ohio.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin has a small edge at the moment over Republican Rep. Mike Rogers for the seat left open by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Just down Lake Erie, Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead, just past the margin of error in his race.
Both races depend on how well Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump do in their states.
Five races on Republicans’ wish list. This brings us to five other competitive Senate seats Democrats are defending: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maryland.
The first four are all key presidential states as well, where Democrats’ Senate candidates are running ahead of Harris in polling. The fifth state, Maryland, is a deep blue state where an ideal Republican candidate — popular former Gov. Larry Hogan — is getting national interest. But he’s still nearly double-digits behind Democrat Angela Alsobrooks.
Two Democratic pick-up opportunities. Democrats have hopes for some pick-ups as well, with one coming closer in range.
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Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images
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That’s Texas, where polls show Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is right around the margin of error in his race against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred. Democrats are now investing millions into this race.
Democrats are also eyeing Florida, and incumbent Sen. Rick Scott. Polls there are a bit more wide-ranged, but Democrats are considering spending more there, especially given that the state is holding a high-margin ballot initiative in an attempt to enshrine abortion rights.
One unique race that could help Democrats. Finally, let’s talk about Nebraska.
Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is suddenly looking over her shoulder as a nontraditional candidate — newcomer Dan Osborn running as an independent — is gaining on her.
Where does this leave things?
Here’s some overall math.
Republicans start with an assumption that they will win the West Virginia Senate race. That’s +1.
If Republicans also flip Montana as well, that’s +2 Senate seats. That is the point at which Republicans take over the Senate regardless of the presidential race.
This puts incredible importance on Montana. If Republicans flip Tester’s seat, it means that Democrats’ only chances of keeping the Senate are narrow and difficult.
Democrats would have to do three things:
- Run the table in the seven other competitive seats they are defending, winning them all.
- Win either Texas or Florida, flipping a Senate seat in a state that has been red in recent years.
- Win the White House, so that they could break a tie.
Sure, Democrats could win in Texas and Florida. And maybe there is a surprise in Nebraska. But right now, all three are long shots.
It comes down to Montana, a race where Republicans are out in front consistently. If Republicans win there, Democrats’ path to keeping the majority exists, but it is a winding and perilous obstacle course.
For Democrats, the hope is to somehow keep the majority.
But for Republicans looking at this map, they see the chance not only to take over the Senate, but to flip several seats and have a few votes to spare.
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More on politics from our coverage:
- Read: Why Americans are worried about voter fraud but have faith in their local elections.
- One Big Question: Who are the voters and states that will decide the election? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss.
- A Closer Look: A new Supreme Court term begins in the shadow of a presidential election.
- Perspectives: New York Times columnist David Brooks and Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart on whether Liz Cheney’s support will help Harris with independent voters.
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HOW LATE-DECIDERS COULD SWING THE ELECTION
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Photo by Julia Nikhinson/For The Washington Post via Getty Images
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By Matt Loffman, @mattloff
Senior Elections Producer
The presidential campaigns will spend significant time and money over the next four weeks fighting to win the support of the remaining 20 percent of voters who say they are still swayable.
In the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, 15 percent of registered voters say they have a good idea of who they will support but could still change their minds, and 5 percent say they have not made up their minds about who to vote for.
The number of self-described undecided voters is both concerning and an opportunity, said Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir, who managed Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign. It’s why Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned as an underdog since she clinched the Democratic nomination in July, he added.
There are still “too many” unsure voters, he said, but that makes sense because they want to learn more about a relatively new Democratic nominee.
“There’s a chance to win them,” Shakir said. “The fact that they’re unsure is a better place to be than they’re against you.”
But as Harris contends with former President Donald Trump’s strategy to portray her as out of the mainstream, Republican strategist Kevin Madden said, she is running out of time to define herself.
“She’s got exactly one month to fill in the blanks for a lot of these voters about what she would do differently from the [Biden] administration,” he said.
The Democratic and Republican nominees are locked in a tight race weeks before Election Day. Among likely voters, Harris leads Trump by 2 points – 50 percent to 48 percent, within the margin of error. The Republican nominee holds the lead among independent voters, now by 4 points. That’s a group President Joe Biden won by 15 points in 2020.
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Image by Vanessa Dennis/PBS News
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“She has the change argument [on] her side because she is not Joe Biden; she’s a new person,” Shakir said. “But to fully complete the argument on change, you have to make people believe you’re going to come in and be action-oriented.”
That small sliver of late-deciders can swing the election, and Harris should focus on persuading them that she’ll enter the Oval Office “like a ball of fire” focused on their lives and concerns, he said.
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Want to know more about polling? Check out our coverage:
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#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff
Senior Elections Producer
In the final sprint to Election Day, the 2024 race for the White House will likely be decided by a handful of swing states where just a few thousand votes could determine the winner.
In U.S. presidential elections, the popular vote is only for bragging rights. The main event will be the Electoral College, and both the Harris and Trump campaigns are working to build coalitions to reach 270 electoral votes. Democrats worry about a repeat of eight years ago when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes, but still lost the election.
This brings us to one of the most contested presidential elections in U.S. history. In 1876, New York Gov. Samuel Tilden won 50.9 percent of the popular vote, but he lost the Electoral College by a single vote.
Our question: Who ultimately defeated Tilden in the 1876 election?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: Who was the last U.S. president to have facial hair?
The answer: William Howard Taft. When he left office in 1913, Taft — with his broad handlebar mustache — was the last president to sport any facial hair while in office more than a century ago. The last president to have a full beard was also 20 years earlier, with Benjamin Harrison.
Congratulations to our winners: Deirdre S. and John Cleveland!
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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