Israel Expands Lebanon Ground Campaign |
The Israeli military reported continued air strikes, the deployment of another division of troops into southern Lebanon, and the killing of a senior Hezbollah official in Beirut, the latest steps in its campaign against the militant group. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said the group would “overcome all the blows” that have been dealt against it in a televised address today, adding that he supported efforts to secure a cease-fire. In a departure from Hezbollah’s previous public statements, he did not mention an end to the war in the Gaza Strip as a precondition to ending fighting on the Lebanon-Israel border.
Today’s operations in Lebanon come as Israel marks a year of war with Hamas and continues to weigh its response to Iran’s missile barrage last week. Israel’s defense minister is due to participate in talks at the Pentagon tomorrow. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury yesterday announced new sanctions on Hamas. (NYT, Reuters, The Hill)
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“Hezbollah could see itself evicted from portions of Lebanon. But the organization has not been destroyed, and it is still believed to have thousands of missiles in its arsenal, though diminished. The Iranians will do all they can to rebuild it, but for the foreseeable future Hezbollah is a diminished actor on the regional stage,” CFR Senior Fellow Ray Takeyh says in a Q&A.
“Although provocative incidents can push crises up the escalation ladder, truly inadvertent wars are rare. History provides few examples of conflicts that have erupted without policymakers’ authorization, and leaders frequently exercise restraint to avoid combat, especially in high-stakes situations,” the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Erik Lin-Greenberg writes in Foreign Affairs.
Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.
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France Is First in EU to Ink Comprehensive Strategic Partnership With Vietnam |
The two upgraded their ties, the latest in a series of five such deals over the last two years as Vietnam flexes an “omnidirectional” foreign policy. Some of its other such partnerships are with the United States, China, and Russia. France aims for military cooperation with Vietnam to buttress its Indo-Pacific strategy. (The Diplomat)
Philippines: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed a law that he said creates financial incentives for defense firms that produce on Philippine soil. While the law was not immediately published, the approved version in the Senate required firms selling arms to the Philippine military to have production in-country. (Philippine Star)
This Expert Brief by CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick and Abigail McGowan look at how rising tensions are bringing the Philippines and the United States closer.
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Modi Hails ‘New Chapter’ With Maldives as New Delhi Bails Out Country |
India agreed to currency swap lines totaling $760 million for the Maldives. Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu had been known for criticizing Indian influence in the country when campaigning, but since has sought New Delhi's financial help to avoid a sovereign debt default. (FT)
Armenia/Azerbaijan: Armenia’s president said he hopes to sign a peace deal with Azerbaijan in the next four weeks. The two countries have been in talks for a year over a potential deal after an Azeri military campaign that retook the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. (Reuters)
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Middle East and North Africa |
Iran’s Foreign Minister Holds Security Talks in Saudi Arabia |
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi is beginning a multi-country trip in Riyadh today; he plans to discuss Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran’s state media reported. Unnamed sources told Reuters that a meeting last week between ministers from Iran and Gulf Arab countries focused on de-escalation. (Reuters)
For Think Global Health, Shira Efron looks at the humanitarian successes and failures in Gaza a year into war.
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U.S. Watchdog Says Rules on Conflict Minerals Has Not Reduced DRC Violence |
The U.S. Government Accountability Office found that a 2010 law requiring companies to report using minerals connected to conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has not reduced violence in the country. Armed groups have increasingly fought for control of gold mines, since gold is less traceable than other metals, the report noted. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said it disagreed with some of the findings. (Bloomberg, Reuters)
CFR’s Center for Preventive Action monitors conflict in the DRC.
Nigeria: Cholera deaths in the first nine months of the year numbered at least 350, a 239 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Health experts linked the fatalities to the aftermath of widespread flooding. (Vanguard, Save the Children)
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Ukraine, Slovakia Clash Over Russian Gas, NATO Membership |
Yesterday, Ukraine reiterated a pledge to end permission for Russian gas to pass through its borders toward Slovakia, set to expire this year. On Sunday, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico said he would oppose Ukraine’s aspirations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as long as he is in office. His term ends in 2027. Fico has, however, expressed support for Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. (Euractiv, Politico, Kyiv Post)
At this CFR event, outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reflects on the future of NATO.
Brussels/China: Beijing announced provisional anti-dumping measures on European Union (EU) brandy products. They come after last week’s EU vote to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. China will require security deposits of between 30.6 and 39 percent from firms selling brandy originating in the EU. An EU trade and agriculture spokesperson called the measures “unfounded” and said Brussels will challenge them at the World Trade Organization. (CNBC)
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Foxconn Plans Mexico Plant to Manufacture AI Servers |
Taiwanese firm Foxconn’s plant in Mexico aims to meet demand for servers that are part of an artificial intelligence (AI) system run by U.S. company Nvidia. A Foxconn official said the plant in Mexico would be the largest production facility in the world for bundling Nvidia GB200 superchips. He did not specify the size of the investment or when the plant would begin operations. (Nikkei, Reuters)
Ecuador: A judge ordered thirty people to stand trial in a wide-ranging corruption and drug trafficking case. They include judges, prosecutors, local officials, and law enforcement personnel. (Reuters)
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Harris Says She Would Not Negotiate With Russia Without Ukraine |
Vice President Kamala Harris would not negotiate bilaterally with Russia about ending the war in Ukraine without the participation of Kyiv, she told CBS. She suggested former President Donald Trump’s previous pledge to quickly end the war meant to “surrender.” Harris did not immediately answer a question about whether she would support NATO expansion, saying it was an issue to be dealt with “if and when it arrives at that point.” CBS said Trump declined its interview request. (CBS, FT)
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