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Week of September 30, 2024 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
In the wake of escalating tensions, Iran launched a significant missile strike against Israel following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israeli forces. For days, there had been reports of a possible Iranian response, prompting Western countries to urge their citizens to either leave Israel or seek refuge in secure locations.
The missile assault began around 8 PM local time on Tuesday, October 1st, with initial reports emerging on social media before being confirmed by mainstream news outlets. Shortly after the attack commenced, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement declaring, “In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and General Abbas Nilforoushan, we have targeted the heart of the occupied territories.”
The statement added, “Following restraint in the face of repeated violations of our sovereignty by Israel and in line with our right to self-defense under the UN Charter, we have launched dozens of ballistic missiles at key military and security targets in Israel.” The IRGC warned Israel of harsher retaliation should there be any subsequent military response.
In a message posted on the social media platform X, Masoud Pezeshkian described the Islamic Republic of Iran’s missile strike on Israel as a “decisive response based on legitimate rights, aimed at peace and security for Iran and the region.” The Iranian president also claimed that the attack was carried out “in defense of Iranian interests and citizens.” He wrote, “Netanyahu should understand that Iran is not seeking war, but it will firmly stand against any threat. This is just a fraction of our capabilities. Do not engage in conflict with Iran.”
Initial reports suggested that as many as 200 ballistic missiles were launched towards Israel, with international outlets quickly sharing images and footage of the assault. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps indicated that 90% of Iran’s missiles bypassed Israel’s missile defense systems, while video posted on social media showed missiles reining down and striking at or near their intended targets.
Israeli media described the missile barrage as “unprecedented,” with air raid sirens blaring across the country. Flights were rerouted from Israeli airspace, and civilians were urged to take cover in bomb shelters. The Israeli Defense Forces confirmed the missile strikes, stating that civilians had sought refuge, and sirens were heard across multiple cities. International outlets, including CNN and Reuters, reported that global news outlets and Israeli officials had been warning of the missile strikes hours before they took place. Despite the heavy barrage, the Israeli military claimed no significant damage had been caused, though several international sources suggested otherwise.
Iran emphasized that the operation was conducted with approval from the Supreme National Security Council, underlining Tehran’s legal right to defend itself. The IRGC also issued a stern warning, stating that any Israeli military reaction would lead to even more severe retaliatory strikes. Hamas praised Iran’s missile attack, describing it as a “heroic operation” in retaliation for the deaths of key resistance leaders. The group echoed the sentiments expressed by Iran, framing the attack as a justified response to Israeli aggression. Iran’s representative to the United Nations denied reports that Tehran had informed the United States about the impending strike, contradicting earlier claims by some news agencies.
Speaking Tuesday, U.S. National Security advisor Jake Sullivan indicated “The attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective, and this is a testament to Israeli military capability and the US military.” Still, he suggested the attack was a significant escalation and vowed that there will be consequences. Likewise, The U.S. State Department labeled the missile strike “unacceptable,” with Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging global condemnation of the attacks. Meanwhile, the European Union strongly condemned the Iranian attack, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell calling for an immediate ceasefire to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed retaliation, stating, “Iran made a grave mistake tonight, and they will pay for it.” The Israeli military hinted at a response, but did not provide specifics.
Subsequent reporting clarified that Iran had targeted several key Israeli military installations, including airbases and the Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv. While military censorship prevents a full accounting of the damage, some details are coming to light. Arms control experts Dr. Jeffrey Lewis and Decker Eveleth shared a first estimate that 32 missiles struck locations inside Israel’s Nevatim Air Base, including strikes on hangers believed to house advanced F-35 fighters. The number of strikes appear to indicate that the missiles overwhelmed Israel’s missile defenses, and that Israel (and arguably Iran, depending on the subsequent course of events) were lucky to avoid more significant damage.
As the dust settles, global leaders are urging restraint, warning that the situation could escalate into a broader conflict. Iran’s military capability, highlighted by its ability to launch dozens of ballistic missiles, has sparked widespread concern about the potential for a regional war.
Pressed by reporters, U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed that while the United States supports Israel’s right to defend itself, Washington would not back an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In another exchange, Biden appears to have indicated they were discussing the possibility of strikes on Iranian oil facilities with Israel, though appeared to catch himself while suggesting that it might not be wise. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump criticized the current administration’s handling of the situation, asserting that such attacks would not have occurred under his leadership. With tensions high, both sides are positioning themselves for the next phase of the boiling conflict, as global and regional powers watch closely to see how the situation unfolds.
Three days after Iran’s large-scale missile strike on Israel, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, described the attack as “legal and legitimate,” stating that any blow against Israel is “a service to the entire region and indeed to all of humanity.”
This marked Khamenei’s first appearance at a Friday prayer in five years, attended by a significant number of senior officials from the Islamic Republic. His previous attendance was in 2019, following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force.
In his sermon, Khamenei referred to Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, saying, “We neither rush nor hesitate in fulfilling our duties. Whatever is deemed logical, reasonable, and correct by our political and military decision-makers will be carried out in due time, and if necessary, we will take further action in the future.” This echoed recent warnings from senior Iranian officials who stated that any Israeli retaliation would result in even harsher strikes from Iran. He stated, “The enemy of the Iranian nation is the same enemy of the people of Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen.”
Khamenei also utilized his remarks to defend the October 7th attack by Hamas and its allies, which led to the deaths of nearly 1,200 Israelis and the capture of over 250 hostages. Khamenei said, “The Al-Aqsa Storm was a lawful and internationally recognized action, and the Palestinians were within their rights.” Israel’s subsequent retaliatory strikes on Gaza, according to Palestinian sources, have killed more than 41,000 people. Some estimates believe this is a gross undercount of the death toll, which has been difficult to track. Israel has also expanded its military operations into Lebanon, with Lebanese sources reporting over 2,000 deaths from Israeli attacks in recent weeks highlighted by bombings in heavily-populated areas in and around Beirut.
In the second part of his sermon, delivered in Arabic and directed toward the “Axis of Resistance,” Khamenei addressed his regional allies. He claimed, “The vile and cowardly enemy, unable to deal a serious blow to the solid structures of Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other fighters in the path of God, resorts to terror, destruction, and the killing of civilians, considering the mourning of the unarmed as a victory.” Khamenei predicted that the result of such aggression would be the “accumulation of anger” and the emergence of more leaders and martyrs willing to sacrifice their lives.
His appearance at the Friday prayer comes amid rising concerns about Israel’s possible response to Iran’s missile attacks. Earlier in the day, a memorial ceremony for Hassan Nasrallah, the former Secretary General of Hezbollah, was held in Tehran’s Mosalla complex.
Khamenei’s Friday sermon, after a five-year absence, was more measured than some expected. Instead of fiery rhetoric, his speech focused on consolidating an image as the “leader of the Islamic world” and boosting the morale of the “resistance forces.” Half of his remarks were delivered in Arabic, directly addressing Iran’s proxy forces in the region, calling for unity among them.
Khamenei appeared intent on projecting the image of a “strong and brave leader,” especially in light of reports suggesting he may have been relocated to a secure location due to fears of an Israeli counterattack. In the days leading up to his appearance, a widespread media campaign was launched, with Khamenei’s official website releasing dramatic video clips depicting him on the front lines of battle. Iranian state television also showcased the event with grandeur, mobilizing large numbers of people to attend the Friday prayer.
The message Khamenei aimed to convey was clear: the situation is under control, and he fully supports his regional allies. He framed the recent actions by Hamas and Hezbollah as their legitimate right to defend against aggression. Furthermore, he underscored that in dealing with Israel, which he described as the common enemy of all Muslims, Iran would neither hesitate nor act recklessly.
Khamenei’s broader strategy appears to continue his policy of “deterrence through strategic depth,” meaning that while he seeks to avoid direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, he intends to maintain pressure on Israel through Iran’s regional proxies.
Ahmad Zeidabadi, a political analyst based in Iran, offered his perspective on Khamenei’s Friday sermon, writing: “In my view, today’s Friday prayer sermon by the Supreme Leader was an effort to reduce tensions in the region. If Israel refrains from launching a destructive strike on Iranian soil, this speech could potentially steer the escalating violence in the Middle East toward diplomacy.” However, Zeidabadi noted the lack of a fair diplomatic initiative currently being pursued by the global community, expressing hope that such an initiative might emerge soon.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan at his residence during his two-day visit to Qatar. The foreign minister reportedly expressed the Saudi kingdom’s strong desire to resolve remaining differences.
Pezeshkian was in Doha at the official invitation of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, to participate in the Asia Cooperation Dialogue Summit. Upon Pezeshkian’s arrival in Qatar on Wednesday, October 2nd, Emir Sheikh Tamim welcomed the Iranian president to his personal residence, where they shared traditional Arabic coffee. The formal reception ceremony followed, featuring the national anthems of both countries, and the introduction of high-ranking officials from Iran and Qatar. After the reception, bilateral talks between the two nations’ high-level delegations commenced, followed by a private meeting between President Pezeshkian and the Emir.
In a joint press conference with Pezeshkian, the Emir of Qatar reaffirmed Doha’s ongoing mediation efforts in the Gaza conflict amid heightened regional tensions. Sheikh Tamim emphasized that Qatar had warned from the outset of the Gaza war about the escalating situation in Lebanon.
Upon his return from Qatar, Pezeshkian provided a briefing on the visit, describing it as brief but productive. “Although the visit lasted just one day, we managed to achieve what could have taken several days through discussions with various groups,” Pezeshkian said. He highlighted that his meeting with the Emir of Qatar led to six key agreements between the two nations, which will be finalized before a forthcoming visit by the Emir of Qatar to Iran. The developing accords cover various fields, including economic, cultural, educational, and sports cooperation. Additionally, Pezeshkian noted a joint meeting between Arab foreign ministers, including Iran’s Foreign Minister, to discuss issues related to Gaza, Lebanon, and other regional concerns. “Good understandings were reached during these talks,” the president noted.
The Iranian president also met with the President of Tajikistan and the Prime Minister of Thailand to address shared regional concerns. “We are gradually moving toward developing a common language and unified perspective with our neighboring countries,” Pezeshkian said, expressing hope that a united regional stance will help put pressure on Israel to halt its “atrocities.” Pezeshkian emphasized the goal of guiding the region toward peace and security, fostering unity among Islamic nations. He noted that there are collaborative plans underway with regional countries to design and implement strategies aimed at achieving these objectives.
Pezeshkian noted that Iran’s Central Bank Governor engaged in discussions with his Qatari counterpart and the Emir of Qatar to resolve issues related to Iran’s $6 billion in frozen assets which are being held in Qatar based on a prior negotiation with the United States. As part of the September 2023 prisoner swap deal, the U.S. oversaw the transfer of Iranian assets held abroad to Qatar for future humanitarian purchases. However, after the October 7 attacks, the U.S. contacted Qatar and urged that none of the funds be moved, so they remain frozen.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, commenting on the recent visit, asserted the importance of the meetings in Qatar. “This trip sends a clear message: our neighbors are our priority, and our goal is to create a strong region,” he said, stressing that dialogue is essential.
In a post on the social media platform X, Araghchi expressed satisfaction with the interactions, emphasizing that the presence of President Pezeshkian in Qatar and his meetings with Qatari leadership, the Saudi Foreign Minister, and Hamas leaders marked an important step in diplomatic engagement. The trip also included the first informal meeting between Iranian and Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been conducting a diplomatic tour of the region, with his latest stop in war-torn Beirut, Lebanon. On Friday, October 4, Araghchi met with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in the capital as part of ongoing efforts to engage with regional leaders during a period of escalating conflict.
Prior to visiting Lebanon, Araghchi, alongside Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, had traveled to Qatar. According to Iranian media, during their visit, a message was conveyed to the United States through Qatari intermediaries, stating that “the era of unilateral restraint is over.”
Araghchi’s arrival in Beirut followed a series of intense Israeli airstrikes on southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh district the previous night. Local media reported at least ten attacks, with one strike occurring near Beirut International Airport. Israeli officials indicated that one of the main targets was Hashim Safi al-Din, a senior Hezbollah figure and cousin of the late Hassan Nasrallah. Eyewitnesses described the intensity of these explosions as comparable to those in last week’s attack that killed Nasrallah. Hezbollah has yet to respond to these reports.
Before the Israeli airstrikes, an Israeli military spokesperson issued a warning, urging residents of southern Beirut to evacuate certain areas identified on a publicly released map. In addition, Lebanese media reported that six days prior to Araghchi’s visit, the Israeli military had issued a warning to Beirut International Airport about the entry of Iranian planes. In response, Lebanon’s Minister of Transport instructed airport officials to block the landing of any Iranian aircraft. It remains unclear whether Israel’s warnings were specifically intended to prevent Araghchi’s trip, or geared more toward airfare that could be conveying weapons or military figures. As Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon continue, the Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that the death toll from the ongoing conflict has risen to 2,020 people. According to Tasnim News Agency, Araghchi is scheduled to visit Syria after his trip to Lebanon.
At least six people have been killed in two separate armed attacks in various cities of Sistan and Baluchestan Province. The first attack targeted a school in the Bent district of Nikshahr County, resulting in four fatalities. Among the victims were Parviz Kadkhodaei, the commander of the Bent IRGC unit, and Yousef Shirani, the head of Bent City Council.
Two conscripted soldiers, identified as Javad Sadati and Mojib Baluchi, were also killed in the assault, which took place at 9:30 AM on Tuesday, October 1st. Mojib Hosseini, the governor of Nikshahr, labeled the attack as “terrorist,” although no group has claimed responsibility for the incident so far. In a separate attack reported by ISNA news agency, two police officers were killed in Khash County when their vehicle was ambushed. The militant group Jaish al-Adl has claimed responsibility for this attack.
Abolfazl Ghadyani, a prominent political activist and former political prisoner, was arrested by Iranian security forces at his home on Monday, October 1st, according to HRANA, the news agency of Human Rights Activists in Iran. His son, Ahmad Ghadyani, confirmed the arrest on social media, stating, “They stormed my father’s house and took him away. It seems like a return to old tactics of silencing critics, an attempt to project power as authority crumbles.”
Ghadyani, known for his outspoken criticism of the Iranian regime, has been transferred to Evin Prison, where reports suggest his access to essential medication remains restricted. Earlier this year, he was sentenced to 10 months in prison by Tehran’s Revolutionary Court on charges of “propaganda against the regime.”
In a separate case, reformist activist and former political prisoner Mehdi Mahmoudian has been sentenced to eight months in prison for exposing the poor conditions at Evin Prison, particularly its bedbug infestation. Mahmoudian, who revealed the verdict on September 27th through a post on X (formerly Twitter), said he was sentenced in absentia by Branch 26 of the Revolutionary Court. Along with the prison sentence, Mahmoudian faces a two-year ban on joining political parties, using smartphones, and leaving the country.
Mahmoudian commented, “These punishments are solely because I exposed the truth about the bedbug infestation in Evin, challenging the false reports from the regime’s news outlets.”
Rafael Grossi, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated on Thursday, September 26th, in an interview with AFP, that Iran has expressed interest in re-engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United Nations and Western powers. Grossi, who had previously announced plans to visit Iran in the coming month, noted that Tehran is showing “signs of readiness to re-engage not only with the IAEA but also with other partners from the 2015 nuclear agreement.”
Speaking to AFP, Grossi said, “If things progress positively, there is a possibility for renewed talks. I believe this is the aim of President Pezeshkian and his foreign minister—to resume negotiations with former partners to address this issue.”
Since 2021, Tehran has significantly expanded its nuclear activities while reducing cooperation with IAEA inspectors. It has cut surveillance cameras at key sites and revoked visas for IAEA experts. Despite these moves, Grossi emphasized that Tehran is unwilling to reverse its decision from last year to ban certain IAEA inspectors from entering its nuclear facilities. Grossi also stated that during his upcoming visit to Tehran, he will stand firm on his decision to restore inspector access to these sites.
Since the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s president, the Islamic Republic has indicated its desire to resume talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement, commonly known as the JCPOA. However, European countries remain cautious about returning to negotiations, especially with the U.S. presidential election approaching in early November.
Fereydoun Tonekaboni, the celebrated Iranian writer and satirist, passed away on Saturday, September 28th, 2024, at the age of 87 in a nursing home in Cologne, Germany. Tonekaboni, a founding member of the Iranian Writers’ Association, fled Iran in 1983 to escape arrest by the Islamic Republic’s authorities and lived in exile in Germany until his death.
Tonekaboni was an active participant in the “Ten Nights of Poetry” at the Goethe Institute in Tehran in 1977, an event that played a significant role in shaping Iran’s literary and political discourse. Before the 1979 Revolution, he spent two years in prison for publishing his book Notes from a Crowded City and protesting government censorship.
In 1979, Tonekaboni, along with other prominent figures like Siavash Kasraie, Houshang Ebtehaj, Mohammad Taghi Boroumand, and Mahmoud Etemadzadeh (Beh-Azin), was expelled from the Iranian Writers’ Association. These writers later formed the “Council of Iranian Writers and Artists.” Throughout his career, Tonekaboni’s satirical works focused on social criticism, and he published 11 books over several decades.
Born in 1937 in Tehran to a family of educators, Tonekaboni began his career as a teacher while studying Persian literature. His literary journey began during his student years, influenced by classical Persian literature. He collaborated with literary journals in his early 20s and published his first stories in the 1950s.
Tonekaboni’s debut book, A Man in a Cage (1961), centered on the struggles of the underprivileged, portraying the hardships of the working class. His later works, such as The Stars of the Dark Night (1968), continued this trend, using simple language to critique the societal issues of his time.
However, his sharp political satire led to consequences. In 1969, the publication of Notes from a Crowded City resulted in his arrest by the SAVAK (the Shah’s secret police) and a six-month prison sentence. After serving more time than his original sentence, Tonekaboni became emboldened, publishing «The Sorrow of Being Infertile» without official approval, which led to his second arrest and a two-year prison sentence.
Following his release, Tonekaboni could no longer teach and was reassigned to an administrative role in the Ministry of Education. He remained an active member of the literary community, participating in the “Ten Nights of Poetry” in 1977, where his readings further solidified his reputation as a bold and unyielding writer.
The 1979 Iranian Revolution temporarily brought freedom to Tonekaboni’s work, but soon after, he and other leftist writers found themselves at odds with the new regime. In 1983, as the Iranian government began targeting members of the Tudeh Party, of which he was a supporter, Tonekaboni fled the country, eventually settling in Germany.
In exile, Tonekaboni continued to write, publishing works that reflected the immigrant experience, such as Wednesdays and Fanny and Woody, both of which explored the challenges of cultural clashes between Iranian and Western societies. His later works showed a maturation of his satirical voice, moving away from the anger of his earlier writings toward a more nuanced critique of both Iranian and German societies.
Despite being far from his homeland, Tonekaboni maintained his connection to Persian language and literature. He dedicated his book Wednesdays to his children, expressing concern about future generations of Iranian immigrants losing their connection to their mother tongue.
Tonekaboni’s legacy as a satirist and social critic remains, as his works continue to resonate with readers who seek to understand the intersection of literature, politics, and society in both Iran and the diaspora. The National Iranian American Council (NIAC) extends heartfelt condolences to Tonekaboni’s family and admirers. NIAC emphasizes Fereydoun Tonekaboni’s contribution to Iranian literature and his unyielding spirit in the face of oppression left an indelible mark on the cultural history of Iran. His sharp wit, fearless satire, and poignant social criticism will continue to inspire generations to come. Though he spent much of his life in exile, his stories remained rooted in the realities of Iranian society, and through his work, he gave a voice to the voiceless. His legacy will live on as long as his stories are read and cherished by those who seek truth and justice. Tonekaboni’s memory will endure in the cultural fabric of Iran as his works continue to be a beacon for the values of free expression and resilience.
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