October 4, 2024

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Poll: 41 percent say economy and inflation most important issue in election, 17 percent say immigration—and Trump leads Harris on both by a lot

By Robert Romano

The latest Emerson poll of likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1 once again shows that the top issues in the 2024 election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are the economy and inflation at 41 percent and immigration at 17 percent—and Trump still holds substantial leads over Harris on both issues.

On those saying the economy and inflation are the top issues, Trump’s lead was 62.5 percent to 35.2 percent. On those saying immigration, Trump’s lead was 84.1 percent to 15.8 percent. The most important issues remained consistent from September, when Emerson showed 43 percent saying the economy and inflation and 15 percent saying immigration.

The other top issues were threats to democracy at 11 percent, abortion access at 7 percent, health care at 6 percent and housing affordability at 5 percent, with Harris holding substantial leads on all of those issues.

On democracy voters, Harris leads 92.1 percent to 7.9 percent. Among abortion voters, Harris leads 90.2 percent to 8.3 percent. On health care voters, Harris leads 72.9 percent to 23.7 percent. And on housing affordability, Harris leads 81.8 percent to 18.2 percent.

On that basis, with voters evenly divided among their issues groups, Harris holds a narrow 2-point lead for the national popular vote, 49.6 percent to 48.2 percent — with 1.2 percent saying someone else and 1 percent saying undecided.

Among independents, Trump led the poll 53.9 percent to 41.1 percent, Harris leads Democrats 94.2 percent to 4.6 percent. And among Republicans, Trump leads 89.4 percent to 9.7 percent.

That could still be bad news for Harris, given the recent history of Democrats winning pluralities of the popular vote but not majorities, and ultimately losing narrowly in the Electoral College, as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton did in 2000 and 2016.

For example, election forecaster Nate Silver’s most recent projection states that if Harris wins the popular vote by less than 2 points — the Emerson poll shows a 1.4 percent edge — when that breaks down into the Electoral College, that translates to a 68.4 percent chance of Trump prevailing with about a 281 to 254 Electoral College win.

Suffice to say, if the election boils down to the economy and immigration it could be a very good day for Trump in November.

On the other hand, given the pluralities on the issues of importance — with no clear majority saying any particular issue — and their stability month to month in the Emerson and other polls the race looks very, very close with little margin for change given only 1 percent say they are undecided. With just a month to go, all eyes will be looking towards get out the vote operations in the critical battleground states. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/10/poll-41-percent-say-economy-and-inflation-most-important-issue-in-election-17-percent-say-immigration-and-trump-leads-harris-on-both-by-a-lot/

Trump Pick J.D. Vance Exceeds Expectations in Vice Presidential Debate with Independents and Women

By Manzanita Miller

This late in the election cycle, the Vice Presidential debate between former President Donald Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance and Vice President Kamala Harris’ pick Tim Walz is unlikely to be a game changer for partisans who have already made up their minds.

However, the debate appears to have caused a shake up among swing voters and independents, with post-debate polls showing Vance did more to bolster the Trump ticket than Walz did the Harris one. 

Tuesday’s debate was uncharacteristically cordial, with both candidates offering empathy toward each other at various points, and the Senator and Governor voicing occasional agreement. What stood out is J.D.’s stoic enunciation of the Trump Administration’s plans to increase energy independence, address inflation, secure the border, and structure trade deals that favor U.S. citizens.

After Gov. Tim Walz spoke on the housing crisis, Sen. J.D. Vance made nice, saying “Now, Tim just mentioned a bunch of ideas. Now some of those ideas I actually think are halfway decent, and some of them I disagree with.” Vance went on to illustrate the Trump plan to solve affordable housing by reducing energy costs, expanding building on federal land, and curbing illegal immigration to ensure homes go to American citizens.

At one emotional moment during a discussion on gun safety, Gov. Walz recounted that his son Gus witnessed a shooting, visibly shaking J.D. Vance who stated, “that’s awful”, and shook his head. Vance went on to suggest increased safety protocols to protect children in schools.

According to a poll released by CNN, whose audience one would expect to favor the Harris-Walz ticket, Vance and Walz came out nearly equal in terms of a debate winner Tuesday night.

What is interesting however, is the way that J.D. Vance appears to have exceeded viewer expectations, particularly among independent voters. The poll asked viewers pre-debate who they expected to win, and Americans said by a nine-point margin, 54 percent to 45 percent, they expected Tim Walz to best J.D. Vance. Independents said they expected Kamala’s Vice Presidential pick to beat Trump’s pick by a 20-percentage point margin, 60 percent to 40 percent.

However, after the debate, voters felt very differently. CNN’s audience said Vance beat Walz by two percentage points – within the margin of error, but a far cry from the nine-point loss he was expected to take.

Among independents, J.D. Vance’s cordial demeaner and eloquent explanation of the Trump plan for the economy, immigration, and trade, appear to have resonated even more. Independents flipped the script entirely from what they thought pre-debate, and ended up saying J.D. Vance won the debate by eight points, 54 percent to 46 percent, instead of suffering the 20-point loss they expected pre-debate. According to independent voters, Vance beat expectations by 14 percentage points – 54 percent to 40 percent – while Walz underperformed by 14 points – 46 percent to 60 percent. 

While independent voters saw the largest swing toward Vance in terms of debate expectations, nonwhites also moved marginally toward Vance after the debate. The poll shows nonwhites expected Walz to beat Vance by a broad 44-point margin, 72 percent to 28 percent.

However, the debate shifted those numbers, with nonwhites saying Walz beat Vance by 26 points, 63 percent to 37 percent. Vance appears to have exceeded expectations among nonwhites by nine points, while Walz underperformed by nine.

J.D. Vance’s cordial demeanor also appears to have resonated with women, who expected him to lose the debate to Tim Walz by twelve percentage points, 56 percent to 44 percent. However, post-debate, women say Vance won by two points, 51 percent to 49 percent.

How much Tuesday’s debate will matter a month out from election day is difficult to predict, but Americans got a final look into the Trump Administration’s plan for energy independence, a secure border, and trade deals that favor American citizens from J.D. Vance. Vance also exuded cordial leadership and empathy, traits that have raised his appeal among swing voters. Tim Walz attempted to sure up support for his ticket, but largely underperformed, according to voters.

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/10/trump-pick-j-d-vance-exceeds-expectations-in-vice-presidential-debate-with-independents-and-women/