Gold Price Could Hit $2,700 By Mid-2025, Silver Will Outperform Gold — UBS
Sep 23, 2024
Gold has been one of the best-performing assets of 2024, climbing to new record highs on multiple occasions amid a backdrop of deteriorating economic conditions and non-stop debt printing, and according to one bank, the rally is expected to continue with the prospect of lower interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions.
"Gold reached an all-time high of USD 2,607/oz earlier this month, rising more than 25% year to date," noted analysts at UBS. "It's not just the expectations of lower yields at play, with further support from macro and geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuing trend of USD diversification by central banks."
They said that geopolitical tensions are likely to "extend well beyond the fourth quarter, with the next US government (and its policies) uncertain" while also highlighting that "significant unresolved conflicts centered in both Ukraine and Gaza possessing no obvious catalyst to end."
"We expect gold to remain a favored market hedge for both geopolitical and rate risks," they said. "Historically, the metal has outperformed equities during periods of elevated volatility, which again proved to be the case in recent months despite a less dovish market consensus on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead."
The analysts said that, in their view, "This rally could go further," giving a price target of $2,700/oz by mid-2025.
"Our expectation that the silver market will remain in deficit over the coming years implies continuous declines in above-ground inventories, which should help fundamentally underpin prices as well as act as a tailwind for investor interest."
"We see silver outperforming gold over 12 months, with the potential for its ratio to test the long-term average of just below 70x," the analysts said.
In the near term, TradingView analyst Xanrox said that gold could climb above $2,800 as the yellow metal "has started its historical uptrend."
"Right now we can see that the price is inside this ascending blue parallel channel, which is, of course very bullish," Xanax noted. "I predict GOLD to hit the top of the channel within the following days or weeks. This is an 8% profit without leverage if you buy now or wait for a small intraday pullback. From the Elliott Wave perspective, we are in wave (3), and usually, wave 3's are the strongest."
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