Iranian media released footage showing the launch of missiles Tuesday.

October 3, 2024

On Tuesday, Iran carried out a second large-scale missile attack against Israel. Although the full extent of the damage is not yet clear, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that, overall, the strike was “defeated and ineffective.” This apparent result, combined with a similar outcome from the first attack in April, casts doubt on Iran’s conventionally-armed missile deterrent and raises the question of whether Iran might become more interested in nuclear weapons to fill the gap.

Our initial analysis describes the details of the operation, explains how it compared to the April attack, and offers some key takeaways.

Other Iran Watch Resources on Iranian Missiles

Table of Iran’s Missile Arsenal: Contains details of what is publicly known, claimed, or estimated about the capabilities of Iran's deployed missiles.
Iran’s Missile Milestones: A running timeline of major developments in the Islamic Republic’s development of missiles, starting in 1984.
Iran’s Missile Program, Past and Present: A narrative overview of Iran’s missile program, the key institutions involved in the program, and the role of sanctions and export controls in slowing the program.
Iran’s Missile Attack Against Israel: An analysis of Iran’s first large-scale attack on Israel in April.
Revisiting Iran’s January 2024 Missile Strikes on Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan: An open-source assessment of Iran’s more limited missile strikes earlier this year, which offered hints into some of the limitations of the country’s missile force.
Leveling the Field: A report explaining the asymmetric capabilities of Iran and its non-state partners, and how they use these capabilities to their advantage.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.