Voters have a right to know which constituencies politicians prioritize.
Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz spent less time debating immigration last night than their running mates at the top of the tickets did in theirs, but there was much more substance. Analysis and calls to action below!
Skip the analysis and jump straight to actions, if you prefer!
Worker Power or Loose Borders, Pick One (hat tip, Oren Cass)
Immigration policy - like any other - produces winners and losers. Voters have a right to know which constituencies politicians prioritize. Walz and Vance laid out contrasting immigration visions in the early minutes of the debate, starting with Vance, who made the case for workplace enforcement:
“[Y]ou make it harder for illegal aliens to undercut the wages of American workers. A lot of people will go home if they can't work for less than minimum wage in our own country. And by the way, that'll be really good for our workers who just want to earn a fair wage for doing a good day's work.”
Walz followed with an argument for the infamous "Lankford bill" (more on the bill below):
“[T]he Chamber of Commerce in the Wall Street Journal said, pass this thing.”
Now, the Chamber of Commerce has every right to lobby for their interests. Bully for them if they can get politicians to champion their cause. But their endorsement does tell you that the bill does not reduce the number of job seekers crossing the border. So why would Walz point this out? As you'll see below, Vice President Harris isn't interested in reducing illegal immigration, she wants to organize it.
Harris and Walz may not be trying to harm American workers, but their vision of more immigration increases, catch-and-release, and parole abuse demonstrates profound indifference to the two thirds of Americans without college degrees who are disproportionately robbed of wealth accumulation by federal immigration policies.
Affordable Housing or Loose Borders, Pick One
The inability of the legacy media to comprehend the numerical impact of mass immigration was on display during the debate about housing affordability.
Here's the exchange between Vance and CBS moderator Margaret Brennan:
JDV: “We don't want to blame immigrants for higher housing prices. But we do want to blame Kamala Harris for letting in millions of illegal aliens into this country…”
MB: But, Senator, on that point, I'd like for you to clarify. There are many contributing factors to high housing costs. What evidence do you have that migrants are part of this problem?
JDV: Well, there's a Federal Reserve study that we're happy to share after the debate. We'll put it up on social media. Actually, that really drills down on the connection between increased levels of migration, especially illegal immigration, and higher housing prices. Now, of course, Margaret, that's not the entire driver of higher housing prices.
To be clear, total immigration has increased to roughly 3.5 million people a year under the Biden-Harris administration. At that pace, we’d be bringing in another state of California over a decade. So, no, immigration isn't the entire driver of housing prices, but we all learned about the law of supply and demand, didn't we?
You shouldn’t need a study to understand that adding another California over a decade will impact the cost of housing, but Vance did follow through on his promise to produce the Federal Reserve speech he was referring to:
There’s more. A 2019 study (before the border crisis) concluded that every immigration inflow equal to 1 percent of a city's population is associated with a 1 percent increase in average rents and housing. More recent analysis indicates that a 5-point increase in immigration to a metro area is associated with a 12 percent increase in rent. For more on immigration and housing - including our factsheet - click here.
This is Not Sustainable
Vance and Walz both touted plans to build more housing. “There's 3 million new houses proposed under this plan,” said Walz. But if the government continues to add 3.5 million people through immigration year, any building program will just be part of a broader immigration and inflation Ponzi scheme.
Encounters Are Down. What’s Going Right?
Gov. Walz was correct when he said border encounters have dramatically declined in recent months.
The Biden-Harris administration took positive action earlier this year by making a deal with Mexico to get the Mexican government to keep people away from the border (something President Trump did during his term as well). That is the primary reason the number of encounters have declined so dramatically.
Here’s the rub: While encounters have declined, the number of inadmissible aliens being released into the country (through ports of entry, appointments scheduled on cell phone apps, or flown over the border directly) does not appear to have dropped in any substantive way. Which means the impact on the interior of the United States has not changed.
Moreover, border encounters remain at extremely elevated levels, despite the steep recent decline.
It’s a good sign that Walz made a point to talk about lower encounters as a good thing.
It’s a bad sign that Walz felt confident that the debate moderators would not fact check his claim that the border bill would stop the border crisis. That’s still up to us, friends.
Less illegal immigration, or more orderly illegal immigration?
Americans like immigrants. We like immigration. We just want less of it.
Although he didn’t explicitly state it during the debate, Vance has repeatedly stated that the American people desire and deserve a more moderated immigration policy – lower overall numbers.
Walz didn’t indicate that he or Harris think the numbers need to decline; not even the illegal numbers.
“To the least amongst us, you do unto me," Walz said, referring to scripture to illustrate his approach to illegal immigration. “I think that's true of most Americans. They simply want order to it.”
Maximize admissions; minimize the visibility - that’s the Harris/Walz approach to illegal immigration. A more “orderly” illegal immigration system won't create as many images for Fox News, but it still produces chaos in the interior, where vulnerable Americans are harmed. Americans elected to office have a special responsibility to them.
Vance overestimates
Vance said ”we've got 20, 25 million illegal aliens who are here in the country.” Even with record levels of illegal immigration over the past three years, that’s highly unlikely. Remember that every year some number of illegal aliens either return home, pass away, or are awarded legal status.
The number and percentage of foreign-born in the United States has reached all-time highs. More than half of that increase since Biden and Harris took office is estimated to be a result of illegal immigration. All told, the illegal population is probably closer to fifteen million.
Tump did not block Harris’ border bill
“But as soon as it was getting ready to pass and actually tackle this Donald Trump said "No," told them to vote against it because it gives him a campaign issue.” – Walz, on the Senate border bill
Trump was right to oppose the Lankford bill but by the time he came out against it, the citizen lobby - including us in the NumbersUSA community - had already exposed it for the fraud that it was and is.
The bill’s authors are not a selling point
“Well, it is law enforcement that asked for the bill.
They helped craft it. They're the ones that supported it.” – Walz, on the Senate border bill
By “law enforcement,” Walz means Secretary Mayorkas’ office. If you aren’t familiar with Mayorkas, he is the head of the Department of Homeland Security and the man responsible for implementing the policies that created the border crisis.
Compare Mayorkas’ bill with H.R. 2 – the real deal - here.
Most embarrassing moment
The moderators only cut off the microphones of the candidates once during the debate, when Sen. Vance was correcting their misinformation!
JDV: Margaret. The rules were that you guys were going to fact check, and since you're fact checking me, I think it's important to say what's actually going on. So there's an application called the CBP One app where you can go on as an illegal migrant, apply for asylum or apply for parole and be granted legal status at the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand. That is not a person coming in, applying for a green card and waiting for ten years.
MB: Thank you, Senator.
JDV: That is the facilitation of illegal immigration, Margaret, by our own leadership. And Kamala Harris opened up that pathway.
MB: Thank you, Senator, for describing the legal process. We have so much to get to.
TW: Those laws have been in the book since 1990.
MB: Thank you, gentlemen. We want to have -
TW: The CBP app has not been on the books since 1990.
JDV: It's something that Kamala Harris created, Margaret.
MB: Gentlemen, the audience can't hear you because your mics are cut. We have so much we want to get to. Thank you for explaining the legal process. Norah?
Thank you for staying active
Regardless of your preferred candidate(s), it’s safe to assume that they aren’t perfect on immigration. Everyone can improve (some more than others!). Keep pushing them to be better. We - the citizen lobby - are the ones we have been waiting for.
Spread the word,
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