No images? Click here
The Biden administration’s futile quest for a diplomatic solution with Iran precipitated the Islamic Republic’s largest strike against Israel yet, a salvo of over 100 ballistic missiles aimed at major population centers like Tel Aviv.
“None of America’s allies that are on the front line against Russia, China, and Iran . . . feel like they’re in a safer world now as a result” of President Joe Biden’s weak foreign policy, argued Michael Doran in a reaction to the president’s recent United Nations General Assembly speech.
According to Hudson’s H.R. McMaster, because the Biden administration failed to enforce sanctions, the Iranian regime has $100 billion more than it had under Trump-era sanctions. Tehran has used these funds to arm its terrorist proxies, ramp up its military-industrial collaboration with Russia, and launch advanced missile salvos at Israel. In an essay titled “Overmatch,” Doran wrote:
“Defensive systems alone cannot reverse an offense-dominant regime. Offensive countermeasures are the sole means to restore the balance—through the elementary logic of deterrence.”
In Other Words . . .
Watch Doran’s full discussion at Axios House here.
Read on to learn more about the Moscow-Tehran vector of the rising axis and why deterring Iran is the only way to stabilize the Middle East.
Rising Axis showcases the depth of Hudson’s analysis on how America and its allies can compete with and defeat the axis of aggressors.
Facts and Figures
1. Russia-Iran collaboration is leveling up the anti-American axis.
- Between September 2022 and December 2023, Russia launched some 3,700 Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones, averaging between 200 to 250 drones per month. In August 2024, the Kremlin launched around 800 Shahed loitering munitions. And as of mid-September 2024, Russia had used Shahed drones at an even higher rate than it did in August.
- Iran’s April 13 missile salvo against Israel followed the same pattern that Russia established in its joint drone and missile warfare efforts in Ukraine. Then at a mid-August defense industry exhibition in Moscow, Iran showcased two significant, export-ready systems: the Paveh cruise missile and the Mojaher-10 drone. Released images suggest that Iran used Paveh missiles in the April attack.
- The Wall Street Journal reported in September that Russia has received a large shipment of advanced Fath-360 tactical ballistic missiles from Iran. As Moscow and Tehran’s collaboration continues to include more advanced systems, the likelihood that Iran could acquire highly advanced Russian technology like the Su-35 fighter aircraft, the S-400 air defense system, or even intercontinental ballistic missile technology increases.
For more, subscribe to Can Kasapoğlu’s weekly Ukraine Military Situation Report and monthly MENA Defense Intelligence Digest.
2. Russia-Iran collaboration has continued to grow.
- Recent reports suggest that Russia has supplied Iran with Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems and Murmansk-BN electronic warfare systems. These advanced military technology transfers are a significant upgrade for Iran.
- Moscow reportedly plans to produce 6,000 Iran-designed drones per year in Russian factories. In addition to utilizing teenage labor from a nearby school to assemble these drones, Russia also leverages anti-Western propaganda, higher salaries, and relations with strongmen in places like Uganda to attract engineering talent from Africa to bolster its output.
- Iran’s role in Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel was in part a gift to Russia. The attack served as a distraction that eased pressure on Russian forces in Ukraine and threatened to introduce fissures in the Western alliance.
For more, read Daniel Kochis’s op-ed “Russia’s Links with Iran Are Growing Stronger.”
3. By deterring Iran, the US can stymie future collaboration among the axis of aggressors.
- Doran and Kasapoğlu warned in November 2022 that allowing Iran to create an offense-dominant regime in the Middle East would weaken the credibility of American security guarantees. Now the only way to prevent the region from falling into the Russian-Chinese-Iranian sphere of influence is to restore deterrence against the Islamic Republic.
- In January 2024, Luke Coffey accurately predicted that Iran would provide Russia with Fateh-110 ballistic missiles and that Russia–North Korea collaboration would increase.
- Kasapoğlu observed in February that Iran is now investing in infrastructure within Russia—including dredging the Volga River and establishing shipping companies in the port city of Astrakhan—allowing the two countries to further expand the strategic route across the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov. Coffey identified the importance of the Caspian Sea during a Hudson event in February 2023 and a subsequent policy memo.
- Washington should look to previously successful policies to deter Tehran. The Trump administration was able to strangle Iran financially, preventing the regime from arming its proxies. And since the brutal October 7 attacks on Israel, Jerusalem has successfully harmed Iranian influence by ignoring the Biden administration’s calls for de-escalation, explains Walter Russell Mead in the Wall Street Journal.
Act Now
Be a part of promoting American leadership and engagement for a secure, free, and prosperous future for us all.
