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Week of September 30, 2024 [[link removed]] | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council

Nasrallah’s Death Puts Iran in Crisis, Sparks Internal Debates [[link removed]]
The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, along with nearly all of the group’s senior commanders and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan, has triggered a tense and precarious situation for the Iranian government . Not even two weeks ago, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was also injured in the pager attack, underscoring the cost that Iran has thus far been willing to let pass. As Iran faces mounting pressure, internal divisions have emerged over how to respond, with analysts suggesting that the nation’s reaction could reshape the future of the Middle East.

In his message commemorating the martyrdom of the “great fighter and flag bearer of resistance,” Hojjatoleslam Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, Ayatollah Khamenei extended his condolences to the resistance front and the Muslim community, announcing five days of national mourning . He affirmed that the foundation laid by Nasrallah in Lebanon would only grow stronger in his absence and that the resistance’s blows to the “decaying Zionist regime” would intensify. There was no direct mention of Iranian retaliation against Israel in the message.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also released a statement, criticizing that the order for this “terrorist attack” was issued from New York (by Benjamin Netanyahu) and that the United States cannot absolve themselves of complicity with Israel. Separately, in a cabinet meeting, Pezeshkian criticized earlier messages from the United States warning that a response to Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran could disrupt ceasefire negotiations as “totally false.”

Reporting in the United States has indicated that the Biden administration was not told about the strike on Nasrallah until it was underway . However, there are indications that it was conducted with U.S. weapons, and the strike received unconditional praise from both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

In recent days, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued multiple threats hinting at possible direct attacks on Iranian territory . He stated “And to the ayatollahs’ regime I say: Those who strike us, we strike them. There is no place in Iran or the Middle East that the long arm of Israel cannot reach. Today, you already know that this is correct.” Additionally, reports indicate that the Israeli military is considering launching a ground invasion of southern Lebanon with the ostensible aim of pushing Hezbollah away from the border.

Within Iran, there is no consensus among elites on the path forward . Some argue that abandoning Hezbollah in this critical moment is not an option. Experts close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warn that if Israel successfully eliminates Hezbollah, it may set its sights on other regional groups and, eventually, on Iran itself. Many believe the battlefield is now in Lebanon and that Iran will be forced to fight sooner or later.

Hadi Masoumi Zareh, a critic of the government’s recent decisions, blames Iranian leaders for what he describes as “decapitating the resistance .” Standing near the site in Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood where Nasrallah was killed, Masoumi Zareh emotionally decried what he sees as Iran’s mishandling of the crisis, saying, “We warned from the start that this would lead to the decapitation of the resistance. This project has been orchestrated by the U.S. from the beginning.” In an interview with the program “Meydan,” Masoumi Zareh specifically criticized the separation of U.S. and Israeli issues and what he called the excessive caution of Iran’s leadership in recent months, holding these actions responsible for Nasrallah’s assassination.

His views echo those of other critics, many of whom have taken to social media and the airwaves to accuse the Iranian government of inaction . Some members of Iran’s conservative factions have been vocal, with criticism of officials such as Masoud Pezeshkian beginning to surface shortly after Nasrallah’s death was reported.

Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of Iran’s National Security Commission, suggested on national television that had Saeed Jalili been president, Israel would not have dared to act so boldly . Former parliamentarian Ali Motahari also weighed in, tweeting that Iran’s hesitation in responding to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran had emboldened Israel to target Nasrallah.

Motahari’s tweet on platform X read, “We were deceived by the U.S., which kept sending messages promising a ceasefire the following week.” Amir Hossein Sabeti, a member of parliament and a supporter of Saeed Jalili, praised Motahari’s stance and called for a clear explanation of who had been misled by the U.S. and who disobeyed the Supreme Leader’s orders, leading to the failure to avenge Haniyeh’s death and, ultimately, Nasrallah’s assassination.

In response, Yousef Pezeshkian defended his father, Masoud Pezeshkian, tweeting, “Matters of war and peace are under the Supreme Leader’s authority, and Pezeshkian is loyal to the Leader . He has never disobeyed orders from the Commander-in-Chief.” He dismissed Sabeti’s remarks as divisive and urged oversight bodies to investigate such rhetoric.

Javad Imam, spokesperson for Iran’s Reform Front, also criticized Sabeti, calling his statements “populist” and warning against creating polarization and inciting public unrest at such a critical time . Imam further called on Sabeti to hold security officials accountable for Haniyeh’s assassination, citing suspicions of Israeli infiltration. Imam emphasized that military decisions are not within the president’s authority but require approval from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the Leader. He commended Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for preventing the country from falling into an emotionally charged trap designed by Israel.

In his first press conference after the killing of Nasrallah, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani emphasized that Iran still planned to respond to Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Nilforoushan in Beirut . “Israel will not escape punishment,” Kanani declared, stressing that Iran’s reaction would be swift and effective. Kanani rejected the notion that Iran uses proxy forces, reaffirming that Iran supports groups that defend the Palestinian people’s rights. He stated that resistance groups act in line with their national interests and for the security of the region. In a closing statement, Kanani said, “Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated with bombs provided by the U.S.,” further underscoring Tehran’s accusations of American involvement in the escalating conflict.
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