Daily News Brief

September 30, 2024

Top of the Agenda

An Israeli strike hit a building inside Beirut’s city limits today for the first time in nearly a year of war; the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said the strike killed three of its members. A separate Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s deputy leader gave his first comments today since Israel’s Friday killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, saying the group is ready for any potential Israeli ground invasion. 

Countries including the United States and the United Kingdom (UK) continued to call for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah over the weekend. Amid escalating violence, one million Lebanese (one-fifth of the country’s population) have fled their homes in recent days, Lebanon’s government said. Israel’s targeting of Iranian proxies this weekend also included a strike on Houthis in Yemen. The U.S. military yesterday said it was boosting air support capabilities in the Middle East and heightening readiness for troop deployment. (AP, Reuters, NPR)

Analysis

“Nasrallah’s death is a crushing blow: one that follows on the heels of the systematic elimination by Israel of most of Hezbollah’s military leadership,” CFR Senior Fellow Bruce Hoffman writes in this Expert Brief. “What is safe to say is that the military and political landscape in that part of the world has changed profoundly and with that the military and political calculations about the region’s future. Israel has clearly regained the deterrent capability it lost so dramatically on October 7, 2023.” 

“Hezbollah has consistently tied the cessation of its attacks on Israel to a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, and that remains unlikely to change in the wake of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death in an Israeli air strike on Friday. Even if a twenty-one-day cease-fire were declared between Israel and Hezbollah, as U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have called for, it would not alter the underlying reality: the best way to prevent a larger regional conflagration is a cease-fire in Gaza,” the Center for American Progress’ Andrew P. Miller writes for Foreign Affairs.

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Europe

The Euroskeptic party won the most votes in yesterday’s election, but it would need to find a partner to form a government. Other parties have said they would try to block such a coalition. The Freedom Party has called for an anti-immigration crackdown and an end to sanctions on Russia. It’s the first time a far-right party has ranked first in an Austrian election since World War II. (CNN)

UK: The last coal-fired power plant in the UK is terminating its electricity generation today, making it the first Group of Seven economy to end coal power. (The Guardian, CNN)

Pacific Rim

Ishiba Shigeru, who won last week’s election for leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, plans to hold a general election on October 27. He said he wants voters to be able to evaluate his policy plans, which will be laid out in the coming days. (Nikkei)

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert Sheila A. Smith details Ishiba’s win. 

Thailand: The government completed the first phase of a cash transfer program for 14.5 million citizens receiving welfare and people with disabilities, aiming to boost the country’s economy. Bangkok estimates it will eventually include some 45 million people in the program who are making under a certain income threshold. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)

South and Central Asia

At least 192 people were killed and 96 injured in heavy flooding and landslides since Friday, Nepali officials said. Scientists say such floods have intensified due to climate change. (CNN)

India: As campaigning in the Jammu and Kashmir region draws to a close, Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed other parties in saying he would restore statehood to the region. His government stripped the region of its semiautonomous status in 2019, transforming it into a territory run by the national government. (PTI)

Middle East and North Africa

Two separate strikes this month killed militants affiliated with the self-declared Islamic State group and a group connected to al Qaeda, U.S. Central Command said yesterday. Some nine hundred U.S. troops are stationed in Syria, mostly aimed at preventing a resurgence of the Islamic State. (AP)

Sub-Saharan Africa

The funds announced today will focus on strengthening Nigeria’s health and education sectors and increasing climate resilience, such as dam safety. The World Bank is Nigeria’s largest lender with more than $15 billion in loans as of the end of March. (Business Insider)

At this event, CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare sits down for a discussion with Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar. 

Sudan: The continuation of the country’s civil war risks making it “fertile ground for terrorism” at a time when several African countries are experiencing rises in militant violence, the country’s last civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok told the Financial Times. (FT) 

Americas

The UN Security Council has endorsed (but does not officially operate) a multinational security mission in Haiti, the mandate of which is due to expire on Wednesday. The council is expected to vote today on a yearlong extension of that endorsement. (Miami Herald)

Argentina/El Salvador: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele is due to meet with Argentine President Javier Milei today in Buenos Aires. Milei has expressed admiration in the past for Bukele’s crackdown on crime. (Buenos Aires Herald) 

U.S. Campaign 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris said during a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border Friday that she would maintain President Joe Biden’s restrictions on seeking asylum at the border and “pursue more severe criminal charges” to those who repeatedly attempt to cross against U.S. rules. She pledged additional resources to fight fentanyl trafficking and called for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented people living within U.S. borders for years, including the group known as Dreamers who were brought as children. (CBS)

This Backgrounder by Amelia Cheatham, Claire Klobucista, and CFR’s Diana Roy explains how the United States patrols its borders. 

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