Daily News Brief

September 27, 2024

Top of the Agenda

In Japan’s most contested race in years, a nine-way competition for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s spot ended in victory for Ishiba Shigeru. He defeated Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae in a runoff election to lead Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a surprise result after Takaichi, who would have been the country’s first female leader, won the most votes in the first round. Ishiba has run for party leadership four times before this and is known for being unafraid to criticize party heavyweights. He has called for creating something akin to an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and in his victory speech said that “we should think about organically combining many alliances that we have;” he also promised to boost wages and address Japan’s population decline.

World leaders hailed Ishiba’s election, with the U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel posting that Washington looks forward to cultivating even closer bilateral ties during his government. U.S. officials have previously expressed skepticism about the “Asian NATO” proposal—which China has blasted—while Ishiba has criticized what he calls asymmetry in the U.S.-Japan security relationship. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, meanwhile, said that Beijing hopes Japan will adopt an “objective and correct” understanding of China and foster healthy and stable relations. (NYT, Nikkei, Reuters)

Analysis

“Ishiba...represents a cleaner face for the LDP as it tries to move on from a funding scandal centered on internal groups or factions within the party,” Bloomberg’s Alastair Gale and Yuki Hagiwara write. “Ishiba will need to steer the nation through a period of transformation as it emerges from three decades of stagnation and faces mounting diplomatic and security challenges.”

“In government, Ishiba was known for his attention to detail on policy issues. Out of government, he has become a frequent guest on television talk shows, making the discussion of public policy accessible to a broad audience,” CFR Senior Fellow Sheila A. Smith writes for the Asia Unbound blog. 

Pacific Rim

The sinking of Beijing’s sub, its newest such vessel, occurred at a Chinese shipyard in late May or early June, and comes as the country pushes to modernize its navy, unnamed U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal. A spokesperson at the Chinese embassy in Washington said they had no information to provide on the matter. (WSJ, Reuters)

South and Central Asia

The junta released a statement inviting ethnic rebel and pro-democracy armed groups to “communicate with us to solve political problems politically.” The head of one rebel group said that talks were possible if the military agreed to conditions, such as a commitment not to participate in future politics. (AFP)

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action watches Myanmar’s ongoing civil war.

Pakistan: The International Monetary Fund approved a $7 billion loan package for the country, which Pakistan’s prime minister said he hoped would be the country’s last. (Dawn)

Middle East and North Africa

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said early today that it “appreciates the U.S. efforts” toward a cease-fire with Hezbollah and will discuss them in the coming days. Yesterday, he said Israel would keep striking the militant group; fire between Israel and Hezbollah continued today. Hezbollah was not formally asked to accept the proposal put forth by Washington and allies for a cease-fire and did not publicly respond. Meanwhile, in New York today, Netanyahu will address the UN General Assembly. (NYT)

Saudi Arabia: The country is willing to abandon its current unofficial goal of maintaining oil prices at $100 per barrel to increase its market share, multiple unnamed sources told the Financial Times. Riyadh has led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies in joining production cuts since November 2022 to keep prices up. (FT)  

Sub-Saharan Africa

The potential deal would raise at least two billion dollars to protect an area of the Indian Ocean rich in coral, an official from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature said. He declined to name the specific countries. This would be the first deal of its kind to involve multiple countries sharing an ecosystem. (Reuters)

Sudan: The country’s army commander said it would not participate in peace talks if countries providing military backing to the rebel Rapid Support Forces are observers. He accused the United Arab Emirates of arming the rebels, which Abu Dhabi has denied. (Sudan Tribune)

For the Africa In Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin points out Washington’s mixed messages on fueling the war in Sudan. 

Europe

Mayor Eric Adams is due to appear in court today after an indictment unsealed yesterday said he sought and accepted improper benefits such as luxury international travel, and that he assisted Turkish officials with issues they were facing in the city. Adams has denied wrongdoing, and his lawyer said that the mayor told staffers not to take foreign money. (CNN, NYT)

Norway: A government-subsidized project that claims to be the world’s first commercial venue offering carbon transport and storage inaugurated its port terminal yesterday. The facility is expected to start burying carbon dioxide deliveries under the seabed in 2025. (AFP)

At this CFR event from Wednesday, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley discusses the blueprints for a greener future. 

Americas

The government will make the plan public on October 2 and hopes for as much as $10 billion from international financial institutions and developed countries, Environment Minister Susana Muhamad said. The deal is similar to Just Energy Transition Partnerships struck with countries like South Africa, she said, but her aim is for multilateral banks to play a bigger part. The Inter-American Development Bank will have a major coordinating role in this plan. (Bloomberg)

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Diana Roy explains what the Inter-American Development Bank does.

Venezuela: Though Venezuela wants membership in the BRICS grouping as it plans another expansion, the country did not make the list of new potential members circulated at a New York ministerial meeting this week, three unnamed Brazilian officials told Bloomberg. Brasília grew uncomfortable with a potential invitation following Caracas’s fraught July election. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Campaign 2024

Former President Donald Trump said he will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today. Yesterday, Trump said he believed he would be able to “make a deal” between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin “quite quickly” if he were elected president. Vice President Kamala Harris also met with Zelenskyy yesterday and said that any potential proposals that would require Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory, accept neutrality, and forego security relationships with other nations are not proposals for peace, but for “dangerous and unacceptable” surrender. (CNN)

CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow visualize U.S. aid to Ukraine in a series of charts.

In New York, Trump dined for two hours yesterday with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy. Starmer, who met Trump for the first time, said that it was good to establish a relationship and that bilateral ties between the countries are strong. Starmer did not meet with Harris on his trip due to scheduling issues; he has said he aims to do so before the U.S. election. (BBC)

Friday Editor’s Pick

NPR talks to women in Afghanistan daring to defy the law by singing to protest the harsh Taliban rules making every effort to silence them. 

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