Dear MoveOn member,
Did you see Steve Kornacki's warning about the election?
NBC News National Political Correspondent Kornacki's polling average shows
Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 2 points
nationwide.^1 But Kornacki reminded his viewers that, in 2016, Trump lost
the popular vote and still won the Electoral College—and the presidency.^2
That's not the only piece of bad news.
Right now, Harris's biggest polling leads in battleground states are in
Michigan and Wisconsin, both must-win states.^3 But Harris's lead in those
states could be a mirage.
At this point in the race in 2016, Clinton had a big polling lead over
Trump in those states. But Trump voters were "underestimated in the
polls," and Trump ended up winning both Michigan and Wisconsin—and the
presidency.^4
John, the bottom line is this: This Electoral College is biased
in favor of Republicans, the polls are uncertain, and the only thing we
know for sure is that the election is a toss-up and will be won or lost by
a tiny margin of votes in a small number of battleground states.
Thankfully, MoveOn is working to turn out the precise voters who will make
the difference this election: people with progressive values who do not
consistently vote. That's MoveOn's special sauce—engaging these voters on
the issues they care about most, convincing them that their voices and
votes matter, and getting them to the polls.
This election will come down to the wire, and we are running out of time
to reach voters. Will you start a $7 weekly donation to MoveOn right now
to help elect Vice President Harris and defeat Trump and the MAGA
movement? When you make a weekly donation, we'll send you a free MoveOn
tote bag as a thank you!
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll start a weekly donation (and get a free MoveOn tote bag)!
[ [link removed] ]No, I can't make a weekly donation.
Yes, Vice President Harris had a phenomenal debate last week.
Yes, Vice President Harris has a slight lead in the national polls.
Yes, Vice President Harris has momentum on her side (including winning the
endorsement of Taylor Swift right after the debate).
We hate to rain on your parade. Nate Silver, one of the nation's foremost
elections forecasting experts, gives Trump a 59.7% chance of winning the
Electoral College. According to the latest update to his highly respected,
nonpartisan model, Vice President Harris has only a 40.0% chance of
victory.^5
Our rights and freedoms are on the line, and what we are doing right now
to elect Harris is simply not enough. Each and every one of us needs to go
the extra mile to win this election and save our democracy. And if we come
together, we can absolutely do it.
As The New York Times puts it, the election will be decided by one thing:
"it'll be about turnout."^6
And that's exactly what MoveOn's plan does: turn out people with
progressive values who do not consistently vote.
This year, MoveOn is focusing on "surge voters" in battleground
states—people who became active for the first time, or more active, after
the 2016 election. And then narrowing it down even more, we are
prioritizing young voters and voters who skipped voting in the 2016 and/or
2022 elections.
Young people are aging into the electorate and are voting at a higher rate
than previous generations did at their age, and they reject MAGA by
20-point margins.^7 If they vote, they will deliver the margin we need to
win.
Now, with exactly seven weeks to go until Election Day, will you start a
$7 weekly donation to help MoveOn reach voters in the crucial battleground
states that will decide this election? As a thank you for becoming a
weekly donor, MoveOn will send you a free tote bag as a token of our
appreciation.
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll start a weekly donation (and get a free MoveOn tote bag)!
[ [link removed] ]No, I can't make a weekly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Jensine, Gabi, Matthew, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Steve Kornacki: What the road to 270 looks like for Kamala Harris and
Donald Trump," YouTube, September 15, 2024
[link removed]
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. "Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast," Silver Bulletin,
September 17, 2024
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6. "Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats' Success in Special
Elections," The New York Times, February 3, 2024
[link removed]
7. "Gen Z might be the MAGA movement's undoing," The Washington Post,
January 28, 2024
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Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025
is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks
communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and
undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll
our nation.
Will you donate to power MoveOn's election plan, stop Trump, and ensure
Project 2025 is never enacted?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in.
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