Dear John,

The weather (in the UK at least) has turned autumnal. Newspapers abound with headlines on Keir Starmer's 'winter of discontent'. Party conference season is upon us, and with it the hideous yearly viruses. 

But at least we're not facing the prospect of a man who insists Haitian immigrants in Ohio are stealing peoples' cats and dogs and eating them becoming the leader of our country. Although Trump's refusal to say whether he backed Ukraine winning the war against Russia - another jaw-dropping moment from this week's televised presidential debate against Kamala Harris - sent a shudder through everyone watching here in Europe. Let's get into it.

The Tortured (wannabe) Presidents Department

An estimated 67.1 million people watched the Harris/Trump debate on Tuesday night. That's a 31% increase from the June debate between Trump and Joe Biden - the one many believe doomed the current President's run for a second term. But the standout moment of the night wasn't Trump's outlandish pet-eating conspiracy theory, or Harris's instantly memed face of bemusement. That came in the form of billionaire pop star Taylor Swift's long-courted (but apparently surprise) endorsement of Kamala Harris on Instagram immediately after the debate.

Her post, which drove more than 330,000 new voter registrations in less than 24 hours, could give Harris's campaign an edge. Pollsters in the US found 18% of voters say they're 'more likely' or 'significantly more likely' to vote for a candidate endorsed by Swift. She's also immensely popular with the 'moderate suburban woman' demographic that was critical to Biden's win in 2020, and which Harris needs in order to beat Trump in November. 

But however much momentum the Harris/Walz campaign has, the fact remains that the US election is a toss-up. This race isn't unique in that - for nearly every election of the 21st century, the popular vote has been largely irrelevant. The Democrats have gained the most votes in seven of the past eight elections, but won the presidency in only five of those; meanwhile in the past four elections, 40 states have voted consistently for the same party every time. It all comes down to seven swing states. A few hundred thousand voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia could swing the race either way.

And that is a terrifying thought. In less than two months, the next President could be a former attorney general. Or it could be, as described by an ex-FBI deputy director, a "de facto Russian asset".

A sick note for the country

Things aren't much rosier on our side of the pond. This week marked Keir Starmer's second policy flashpoint with MPs as they voted to cut the winter fuel allowance for all but the country's poorest pensioners. While a Conservative motion to block the cut was defeated by 120 votes, one MP - Jon Trickett - rebelled to vote against the government, and no vote was recorded for 52 Labour MPs, some of whom were on official business or other leave. Back in July, Starmer suspended seven MPs from the Labour party after they rebelled to support an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit limit. It isn't yet clear whether this week's lone rebel will receive similar treatment. 

Starmer was thoroughly grilled over the cut at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, but his response - blaming the move on the £22 billion 'black hole' left in the country's finances after 14 years of Conservative rule - was given something of a boost by two reports this week on the dire state of our public services.

Broken not beaten

First, surgeon and independent peer Ara Darzi published his review into the current state of the NHS. It revealed:

• The health of the nation has deteriorated, resulting in "a society in distress"
• Productivity in the NHS is down, despite a rise in staff numbers since 2019, due to a lack of beds and diagnostics
• "No progress whatsoever" in early cancer diagnosis from 2013 - 2021
• Cancer care lags behind other countries and cancer death rates are higher than in other countries
• Technology in the NHS is trailing 15 years behind the private sector
• Long waiting lists may have caused 14,000 extra deaths a year

While the Covid pandemic and ill-judged Cameron-era reform are both cited as factors, systemic underfunding by consecutive Conservative governments is largely to blame for the current state of the NHS. Lord Darzi writes that "the 2010s were the most austere decade since the NHS was founded", with spending increasing by just 1% in real terms over ten years. In response, the Prime Minister said the NHS was "broken not beaten", but said there won't be an increase in funding without reform. A ten-year plan is due to be released next spring.

Pray-date for prisons

Second, it was revealed that Rishi Sunak was warned before the election by the UK's most senior police officers - and his own justice secretary - that he needed to take immediate action to alleviate the prisons crisis, or they'll have to "get down on their knees and pray". Knowing he faced electoral oblivion Sunak deliberately dithered, foisting the decision onto the new Labour government, who this week implemented the required early-release scheme. 

That fact was apparently lost on Nigel Farage, who stood up at PMQs to pin the blame on Starmer. He also, in more of a bullhorn than a dog-whistle to the far-right, accused the prime minister of 'two-tier policing' over the jailing of violent thugs and inciters of hate during the summer riots. Labour MPs rightly responded to Farage with cries of "shame!".

A house is not a home (if you can be evicted from it without fault)

It wasn't all doom and gloom this week, as we saw a reinvigorated Renters' Rights Bill return to the House of Commons - five years and four prime ministers after it was first promised.

The Bill puts the teeth back in the Conservatives' watered-down legislation, banning no-fault evictions (a move backed by 60% of Brits) for new and existing properties as soon as the law comes into force, which could be in a matter of months. Labour will also crack down on those who exploit the housing crisis by manufacturing bidding wars between tenants, and ban in-tenancy rent increases written into contracts. These are often used by landlords to push out the current tenants mid-tenancy.

After the tragic death of toddler Awaab Ishak in 2020, the previous government's Awaab's Law forced social landlords to follow strict deadlines on inspecting and repairing hazards in social housing. The new government will go further, extending Awaab's Law to include private renters. 

Finally, the new Bill will give tenants the right to request a pet, which landlords must consider and cannot unreasonably refuse. Anything that will boost numbers of anti-Trump 'Childless Cat Ladies' or dogs at polling stations has our vote!

Another (s)election

The new Select Committee chairs were elected this week, and included MPs that Best for Britain has worked with extensively in the past, such as Layla Moran as chair of the Health and Social Care committee; and Emily Thornberry as chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. 

After party conferences are finished and parliament returns, all members of the committees will be chosen, and Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems will have elections within their parliamentary parties if there end up being more candidates than places. There also remains a question over who will chair the Liaison Committee, the super-committee that gets to question the prime minister. Usually the government lets committee chairs decide amongst themselves - unless Boris Johnson is in charge, in which case a friendly chair gets parachuted in by the government.

And in another election process that precisely no one cares about (no, really), Priti Patel and Mel Stride have both been knocked out of the Tory leadership race. Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat will now be subject to a “beauty contest” at the Conservative conference in October. Shudder.

🫣 Cringe Column 😬

It'll come as no surprise that the two entries to this week's cringe column are from the MAGA crowd.

One of our readers asked us last week to "stop being so miserable". We love our readers and take all of your suggestions seriously (well, maybe not ALL of them). So I'll try to end on a high. Here goes…

Today, 96% of newly installed, utility-scale solar and onshore wind power plants are more economical than new gas or coal. Renewables now account for 33% of the global power mix, up from 22% ten years ago. And next year, renewables will overtake coal as the largest source of electric power generation in the world. 

Three reasons to be cheerful at the end of a chilly September week.

Best wishes,

Julia Meadon
Director of Digital
Best for Britain