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It's Crucial to Distinguish Between Can't and Won't—With a Million Lives at Stake Jim Naureckas ([link removed])
CNN: Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery

CNN (5/1/20 ([link removed]) ) fails to note that its expert is predicting a seven-figure death toll for the United States.

In a story predicting two more years for the coronavirus pandemic, CNN (5/1/20 ([link removed]) ) quotes Michael Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota: "This thing's not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70% of people," he said. "The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology."

CNN should note that accepting a 60–70% infection rate means accepting a million deaths or more, assuming a fatality rate of 0.5% ([link removed]) —which may be a conservative estimate.

The network should also note that it's not a law of microbiology that requires that we allow the coronavirus to infect hundreds of millions of people, but a choice made by governments—as the varied results obtained by different countries demonstrate. Here's a chart highlighting active cases per capita in China:


91-DIVOC: China active cases per capita hightlighted

Chart: 91-DIVOC ([link removed]) (5/1/20)

There's a usually unspoken assumption that the US just can't do what China did—which was to pursue a strategy ([link removed]) based not just on discouraging but on halting transmission of the coronavirus. It can't be that quarantines are seen as incompatible with democracy; we have quarantines ([link removed]) , after all. The idea seems to be that effective quarantines are incompatible with democracy—but that's not true either, as nations with elected governments like New Zealand ([link removed]) and Taiwan ([link removed]) have also managed to bring new cases down to near zero.

It may be unlikely that the United States will summon the political will to implement a realistic plan for not just delaying, but stopping Covid-19. But it's crucial for media reporting on options in the fight against the outbreak to distinguish between can't and won't—especially when the other option is letting a million people die.


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ACTION ALERT: Messages to CNN can be sent here ([link removed]) (or via Twitter @CNN ([link removed]) ). Please remember that respectful communication is the most effective. Feel free to leave a copy of your message in the comments thread of this post.


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