Many prison population cuts even smaller than they appear

Prison Policy Initiative updates for May 1, 2020 Showing how mass incarceration harms communities and our national welfare

While jails drastically cut populations, state prisons have released almost no one [[link removed]] Our analysis finds that jails are responding to the unprecedented public health crisis by rapidly dropping their populations. In contrast, state prisons have barely budged. [[link removed]]

by Emily Widra and Peter Wagner [[link removed]]

In recent weeks, local governments across the U.S. have drastically reduced their jail populations to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Many have reduced the number of people in jail by 25% or more, recognizing that the constant churn of people and the impossibility of social distancing in jails make them inevitable hotbeds of viral transmission. But state prisons — where social distancing is just as impossible, and correctional staff still move in and out every day — have been much slower to release incarcerated people. We decided to directly compare the population cuts in local jails to those in state prisons, to highlight just how little states are doing to keep their residents (and the general public) safe:

For detailed data on 190 jails, see Table 1 below, and for the smaller changes in 15 state prison systems and the federal Bureau of Prisons, see Table 2 below.

The strategies jails are using to reduce their populations vary by location, but they add up to big changes. In some counties, police are issuing citations in lieu of arrests, prosecutors are declining to charge people for "low-level offenses," courts are reducing the amounts of cash bail, and jail administrators are releasing people detained pretrial or those serving short sentences for "nonviolent offenses." (We're tracking news stories and official announcements of the most important changes in the country on our virus response page [[link removed]].)

Table 1: largest known population reductions in local jails

Table based on a sample of 208 jails whose data is collected by the NYU Public Safety Lab. For the data on all 812 jails with available data, see the appendix to this article [[link removed]] on our website.

Meanwhile, state Departments of Correction have been announcing plans to reduce their prison populations — by halting new admissions from county jails, increasing commutations, and releasing people who are medically fragile, elderly, or nearing the end of their sentences — but our analysis finds that the resulting population changes have been small.

Table 2: Most prison systems show only very modest population reductions

Data collected and analyzed by the Prison Policy Initiative. 15 state prison systems and the Federal BOP have readily available and frequently updated populations counts, including pre-pandemic and mid-to-late April counts.

Some states' prison population cuts are even less significant than they initially appear, because the states achieved those cuts partially by refusing to admit people from county jails. (At least Colorado [[link removed]], Illinois [[link removed]], California [[link removed]], and Oklahoma [[link removed]] are doing this.) While refusing to admit people from jails does reduce prison density, it means that the people who would normally be admitted are still being held in different correctional facilities.

Other states are indeed transferring people in prison to outside the system, either to parole or to home confinement, but these releases have not amounted to significant population reductions. For example, the Iowa Department of Corrections has released over 800 people nearing the end of their sentences since March 1st, but the overall net change in Iowa's incarcerated population has only been about 3%. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear commuted [[link removed]] the sentences of almost 200 people convicted of felonies in early April, and the state also planned to release 743 people within 6 months of completing their sentences. But since February, the Kentucky prison population has only decreased by a net 4.35%.

Of the states we analyzed, those with smaller pre-pandemic prison populations appeared to have reduced their populations the most drastically. The prison population has dropped by 16% in Vermont and almost 8% in Maine and Utah. But the median percentage of people released from jails hovers around 20%, still surpassing Vermont's state prison reduction of 16%.

States clearly need to do more to reduce the density of state prisons. For the most part, states are not even taking the simplest and least controversial steps, like refusing admissions for technical violations of probation and parole rules, and to release those that are already in confinement for those same technical violations [[link removed]]. (In 2016, 60,000 people [[link removed]] were returned to state prison for behaviors that, for someone not on probation or parole, would not be a crime.) Similarly, other obvious places to start are releasing people nearing the end of their sentence, those who are in minimum security facilities and on work-release, and those who are medically fragile or older.

If the leadership and success of local jails in reducing their populations isn't enough of an example for state level officials, they may find some inspiration in the comparative success of other countries:

Table 3: Countries reducing their incarcerated populations in the face of the pandemic

Release counts collected by Prison Policy Initiative from news stories covering international prison and jail releases. Percentage of reductions calculated by the Prison Policy Initiative based on pre-pandemic populations — including pretrial and remand detainees — from the World Prison Brief.

Prisons and jails are notoriously dangerous places [[link removed]] during a viral outbreak, and public health professionals [[link removed] 3.24.20 Population Reduction Guidance for DOCs_COVID-19.pdf], corrections officials [[link removed]], and criminal justice reform advocates agree that decarceration will help protect both incarcerated people and the larger communities in which they live. It's past time for U.S. prison systems to meaningfully address the crisis at hand and reduce the number of people behind bars.

Please support our work [[link removed]]

Our work is made possible by private donations. Can you help us keep going? We can accept tax-deductible gifts online [[link removed]] or via paper checks sent to PO Box 127 Northampton MA 01061. Thank you!

Other news: New state and local updates from our Virus Response page [[link removed]]

Multiple times a day, we update our list [[link removed]] of the most significant policy changes in state and local governments. The newest updates:

Jails in Winchester, [[link removed]] Virginia, Duval County, [[link removed]] Florida, Anderson County, [[link removed]] Tennessee, and Maricopa County, [[link removed]] Arizona have each cut jail populations by at least 20%. Louisiana [[link removed]] has started to approve people for temporary medical release, but so far only 53 people have been approved. In Virginia, [[link removed]] 62 people nearing the end of their sentences have been released. In case you missed it: How to find and interpret crime data during the pandemic [[link removed]]

Crime rates have fallen in recent weeks, with most of the country under "stay at home" orders. But crime data analysis isn’t cut-and-dry, so we wrote about five things to keep in mind about crime data, including a few tips for where to look for information about your local area.

Read our 5 pieces of guidance. [[link removed]]

Please support our work [[link removed]]

Our work is made possible by private donations. Can you help us keep going? We can accept tax-deductible gifts online [[link removed]] or via paper checks sent to PO Box 127 Northampton MA 01061. Thank you!

Our other newsletters Ending prison gerrymandering ( archives [[link removed]]) Criminal justice research library ( archives) [[link removed]]

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