Dear MoveOn member,
I hate to rain on your parade, because I too feel the energy and hope of
the Harris-Walz campaign, and Vice President Kamala Harris knocked it out
of the park Tuesday night at the debate. But if the election were
tomorrow, the most likely outcome would be Vice President Kamala Harris
narrowly winning the popular vote but Donald Trump winning the Electoral
College.
Yes, that means a Trump presidency. And deep trouble for our country,
democracy, and world.
I'll get into more of the details in a minute. But you know we've been
here before.
Remember when Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the presidency because
of the Electoral College and the Supreme Court? When George W. Bush became
president due to 537 disputed votes in Florida—and a Supreme Court ruling?
And when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by millions … but lost the
Electoral College, and thus the presidency, in 2016?
That's why I'm writing to you today, to ask you to donate to help my
friends at MoveOn get out the vote in battleground states. MoveOn has an
incredible track record of turning out the very voters who will make the
difference in this election: people with progressive values who do not
consistently vote. MoveOn's special sauce is engaging these voters on the
issues they care about most, convincing them that their voices and votes
matter, and getting them to the polls.
Most pundits thought Hillary Clinton had won her three debates with Trump
too. Let's be clear: What we're doing right now to help elect Vice
President Harris and defeat Trump and the MAGA movement is NOT enough.
Each of us, myself included, needs to do more, starting with chipping in
to help MoveOn turn out inconsistent voters in battleground states.
Will you join me and donate $5 a month to MoveOn right now
to help power and sustain their critical work?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
I have to admit that, while I have faith that the majority of Americans
will make the right choice, I have little faith in the Electoral College.
The Electoral College gives a massive, profoundly unfair benefit to the
Republican Party.
It's because of the Electoral College that one of the nation's top
election forecasters, Nate Silver, now gives Trump a 64.4% chance of
winning the presidency. According to his highly respected, nonpartisan
model, Vice President Harris has only a 35.3% chance of victory.^1
Here's the thing: Right now, millions of people, many of them young and/or
in marginalized communities, are going to sit out this election. Many
don't believe their vote matters. And many face huge obstacles to voting,
in part due to MAGA voter suppression laws and the Supreme Court's
evisceration of the Voting Rights Act.
Data from The New York Times shows that Vice President Harris is not doing
well with these inconsistent, less-engaged voters. Specifically, Vice
President Harris trails Trump by 6 points among voters who didn't vote in
the 2022 midterms.^2
But these are precisely the voters whom MoveOn has a long track record of
turning out to vote. And the results of MoveOn's efforts have been
extraordinary. In 2020, MoveOn's get-out-the-vote program resulted in
50,000 inconsistent voters casting ballots in battleground states and
districts, in a year when President Biden won the Electoral College, and
with it the presidency, by a wafer-thin margin of just 42,844 votes.^3
Will you join me in donating $5 a month to help MoveOn
reach voters in the crucial battleground states who will decide this
election?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
As the nation's largest independent, grassroots progressive political
organization, and one staffed by some of the country's foremost political
experts, organizers, and data scientists, MoveOn will be critical to
victory this November.
And this year, MoveOn is running its most innovative and strategic
election-year campaign ever. Their ambitious plan is to reach and turn out
1.5 million of these "surge voters"—voters who don't consistently show up
to the polls but vote Democratic when they do—in the critical battleground
states and districts that will decide this election.
MoveOn has pioneered a voter turnout method that's proven to be as much as
five times more effective than other methods!
It's called vote tripling, and it's based on relational organizing—the
idea that people are much more likely to listen to their friends and
social networks than anonymous ads and outreach. Relational organizing has
been proven to be the absolute best way, by orders of magnitude, to not
only inform people but turn them into voters who will show up on Election
Day.^4
I'm optimistic that MoveOn's highly effective get-out-the-vote program
will play a crucial role—once again—in ensuring that we have a decisive
margin in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and the other key battleground states
where we narrowly eked out a victory in 2020. But MoveOn's fundraising is
behind, time is running out, and they cannot do this crucial work without
your help. Which is where you come in:
With only 53 days left before this election, and our nation's democracy on
the line, will you donate $5 a month to MoveOn to power
their absolutely critical get-out-the-vote program in this final stretch?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
John, for the next 53 days, we've got to give it all we've
got. We've got to volunteer, donate, mobilize, get out the vote, and do
everything in our lawful power to make Kamala Harris the next president of
the United States. The stakes couldn't be higher.
Thanks for all you do.
–Robert Reich
Sources:
1. "Nate Silver Election Forecast Shows Trump's Lead Growing Ahead of
Debate," Newsweek, September 10, 2024
[link removed]
2. "As Groups Have Shifted, Has It Become a 'Normal' Election?" The New
York Times, September 4, 2024
[link removed]
3. "Did Biden win by a little or a lot? The answer is ... yes." NBC News,
December 20, 2020
[link removed]
4. "Largest-Ever Study on Relational Organizing Shows 8.3% Increase in
Turnout," Impactive, October 9, 2020
[link removed]
Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025
is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks
communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and
undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll
our nation.
Will you start a monthly donation to power and sustain MoveOn's election
plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
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