Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Sept. 12, 2024
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How to Make the Most of Ukraine’s Kursk Gambit
Ukraine's bold incursion into Russia's Kursk region has given the country a much-needed breakthrough on the battlefield. However, according to RAND's Samuel Charap and Charles Kupchan of Georgetown University, neither Ukraine nor Russia is able to achieve an absolute military victory. "This war will be concluded at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield," they say.
In fact, the negotiating table is where the Kursk invasion may end up working to Ukraine's advantage. Kyiv has gained leverage in future talks by demonstrating that it can take the fight to Russian territory. The United States and its allies can help put this leverage to good use by mapping out steps to de-escalate the conflict, charting a path to a cease-fire, and working toward a diplomatic endgame.
Kyiv would do well to embark on negotiations sooner rather than later, say Charap and Kupchan. "Undue delays are likely to weaken, not strengthen, Ukraine's hand."
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** More Perspectives on the Kursk Invasion
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- The Kursk offensive arrived not a moment too soon, RAND's Raphael Cohen writes in Foreign Policy. But Ukraine will need to offer more if it wants to keep the momentum, he says. "Perhaps most importantly, it needs to find a new strategic storyline."
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- Kursk may help Ukraine win the information war, says RAND's Hunter Stoll. "This offensive has the potential to positively influence Western perceptions, sustain funding and material support for Ukraine, and degrade Russian domestic support for the war."
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- RAND's Adam Givens and Gian Gentile break down other bold operations throughout history that reveal how Ukraine can create operational and strategic leverage in Kursk.
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How North Korea's Clean Streets Sanitize Its Image
North Korea may soon reopen its borders to tourism. If foreigners begin visiting Pyongyang, then many will likely be fascinated by the city's pristine boulevards and litter-free streets. But this cleanliness only "highlights the regime's success in controlling the narrative and presenting an image of efficiency and purity to the outside world," says RAND's Benjamin Young. If tourists venture outside the capital, they'll find poor sanitation, homes without windows, and infrastructure in disrepair--a stark contrast between the sanitized image shown to visitors and the actual living conditions of the North Korean people.
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Is the Market for AI Foundation Models a Natural Monopoly?
Foundation models--a class of AI models trained on large and diverse datasets and capable of performing many tasks--may play a large role in shaping the economic and social effects of AI. A new RAND report looks at whether these models might create the conditions for a natural monopoly. (A natural monopoly occurs when the total cost of fulfilling market demand is lower for a single firm than it is for multiple firms.) The authors identify key reasons why the case for a natural monopoly is relatively strong. For example, the current generation of AI foundation models is reasonably homogeneous, economies of scale are high, and costs are largely sunk.
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** RAND Recommends
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- A recent study by RAND's Kelly Atkinson explores the concept of "mission injury," which may lead to retention and recruitment issues that weaken U.S. military forces and affect the nation's ability to defend against future threats.
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- China's top security conference is happening this week. The United States is reportedly participating, but RAND's Raymond Kuo says he doesn't expect Washington and Beijing to resolve their core tensions: "This is about communicating and clarifying positions, not achieving some kind of a solution."
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- RAND's Beau Kilmer and Roland Neil recently appeared on the podcast The Killing Drugs to discuss U.S. drug arrests and incarceration amid the fentanyl crisis.
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** Events
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Policy Lab: New Evidence for the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
Thursday, September 26, 2024 (Online)
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What Happens to Veterans Who Leave the Military Under Other Than Honorable Conditions?
Thursday, September 26, 2024 (Online)
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All Elements of National Power: The Way Ahead for the Next National Defense Strategy
Thursday, September 26, 2024 (Washington, D.C., and Online)
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