We correct the record on the 2020 election and crime rates. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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There’s an old saying in journalism: Dog bites man is not news. Man bites dog is news. Man eats dog? Big, fake news. So it’s no surprise that Donald Trump’s false claim that migrants are grabbing and munching on cats and dogs in Ohio was perhaps the most memorable moment in last night’s debate.

Others can parse last night’s policy positions, lies, body language, and more from both candidates.

We want to focus on one thing that was also new in a presidential debate: the Big Lie of a stolen election in 2020. When one of the moderators pointed out that judges rejected Trump’s election fraud claims four years ago, the former president complained that “no judge looked at” his evidence because he and other litigants were found to lack standing to sue.

That’s nonsense. Sixty-three courts ruled on the cases brought by Trump and his allies, and they rejected them using language such as “flimsy,” “incorrect and not credible,” and “strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations . . . unsupported by evidence.” The Supreme Court likewise refused to rule.

Some courts said the claimants had no standing to sue — but 30 of them looked at the evidence and said that Trump and his allies had no basis for their false claims. According to a group of prominent conservative lawyers, judges, and senators, Trump and his allies lost 29 of those cases

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. They lost on claims of rigged election machines. They lost on claims of improperly counted ballots. They lost on claims of mail ballot irregularities. They lost on claims of ineligible voters. And they lost on claims of observers being excluded from polling places. Trump won only one of his cases — a ruling in Pennsylvania that affected far too few ballots to change the outcome of the election and had nothing at all to do with fraud.

This year, rather than rigged machines and dead people voting, the rumors revolve heavily around noncitizens voting. States have many systems in place to ensure that only eligible citizens can vote — and only eligible citizens do vote. No matter.

Indeed, some House Republicans are demanding that Congress pass a law effectively requiring citizens to produce a passport or a birth certificate in order to register to vote. There was even the threat of a government shutdown, though that ploy doesn’t seem to have enough votes even in the more conservative chamber.

More ominously, these rumors, fanned by politicians pursuing self-interest, aim to undermine the credibility of the election a few weeks hence. This year, the Big Lie is being pre-deployed.

Linked rhetorically to the false claims about millions of immigrants illegally voting is what Trump calls a “migrant crime wave,” painted as part of a dystopian picture of out-of-control violence.

“Crime here is up and through the roof,” he said. And he blamed immigration: “We have a new form of crime. It’s called migrant crime. And it’s happening at levels that nobody thought possible.”

My colleagues at the Brennan Center have spent months tracking, contextualizing, and responding to claims that politicians are making about crime. We’ve created an excellent collection of research here

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.

These are the facts, based on data from the FBI and other leading sources.

Crime rose in 2020, the last year of the Trump presidency. The murder rate, in particular, spiked dramatically. While there are countless factors that contribute to changing crime rates, the Covid-19 pandemic and its lockdowns were clearly a leading cause. As the pandemic receded in 2022, most crime began to decline. In some cities, the declines have been steep, and the rates of some crimes have fallen beneath pre-pandemic lows. We’ve also looked in detail at legal changes such as bail reform and recently conducted the most comprehensive study to date on the connection between bail reform and crime rates

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. There is simply no evidence that bail reform contributed to the 2020 crime surge.

Trump’s claim that migrants are responsible for a crime wave is equally baseless

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. If anything, immigration is linked to decreases in both violent and property crime

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. This scary argument has demagogic appeal: it combines our deep fear of criminality with the nativism that surfaces during difficult times in U.S. history — but it’s a myth.

My colleagues and I will work hard to fight fear with facts as the campaign continues. Keep checking this space and our website for reliable research and analysis.





Ohio Voters Are Ready to End Gerrymandering

This November, a ballot initiative to replace Ohio’s politician-run redistricting commission with one led by citizens could end the state’s long legacy of gerrymandering. The Brennan Center spoke with Ohioans who are tired of the status quo and eager to vote in favor of Issue 1. As one voter told Kendall Karson Verhovek, the politicians in charge of drawing district lines “have shown that they are not capable of doing this fairly and constitutionally. So it has to be taken away from them.” Read more

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Fishing for Fake Proof of Voter Fraud

The Heritage Foundation, which produced the antidemocratic Project 2025 policy agenda, has been trying to erode trust in elections by pushing the lie that noncitizens are registering and voting in large numbers. Now the group is trying to use secretly recorded videos to manufacture evidence of voter fraud where there is none. “The Heritage Foundation’s actions are hurting our democracy, not helping it,” Jasleen Singh writes. READ MORE

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Dispelling Bail Reform Myths

Some politicians and pundits blamed bail reform for a spike in violent crime during the Covid-19 pandemic. But a Brennan Center study finds no evidence connecting bail reform and crime rates. These reforms, which seek to correct longtime racial and economic disparities in the criminal justice system, don’t endanger communities or allow people to escape accountability for their crimes. Rather, Ames Grawert writes, “these reforms simply seek to end the risk that someone who is legally presumed innocent can be jailed simply because they are too poor to pay money bail.” Read more

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Perverse Pathways to Power in Congress

The pressure on officials to raise funds doesn’t end after they’re elected. A new Brennan Center analysis of congressional fundraising shows that senators and representatives are required to continually raise money for their party if they want to wield power on Capitol Hill. “A system in which so many of the paths to leadership are tied to fundraising does a disservice to elected officials and to the American people,” Maya Kornberg and Sophia Deng write. Read more

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Big Tech Money Dominates Elections

Weak campaign finance laws give the wealthiest Americans and corporations immense power to shape our elections. In particular, political spending has recently been fueled by prominent tech figures seeking to advance radical views or influence policymakers’ decisions at the expense of the public interest. “It doesn’t have to be this way,” Grady Yuthok Short writes. “By passing the Freedom to Vote Act, Congress can strengthen the rules to help ensure that normal Americans, not just the highest bidders, are fairly represented in our policymaking process.” READ MORE

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Coming Up

VIRTUAL EVENT: The Experts’ Guide to Free and Fair Elections

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Thursday, September 19, 3–4 p.m. ET



Election workers are unsung heroes, laboring behind the scenes to ensure that our elections run smoothly and securely. Yet many people don’t fully grasp what their job entails, leaving room for election deniers to spread misinformation. This lack of understanding has fueled a disturbing rise in threats, intimidation, and abuse of election officials since 2020.



Join us for a live virtual event that will spotlight these essential but often overlooked professionals. The discussion will offer a unique opportunity to hear firsthand from the people who make our elections possible as they share their day-to-day challenges and the role that they play in protecting democracy. RSVP today

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Want to keep up with Brennan Center Live events? Subscribe to the events newsletter.

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News

Kareem Crayton on a new attack on the Voting Rights Act // ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION

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Lauren Miller Karalunas on election certification rules // STATELINE

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Mike Milov-Cordoba on state judicial elections // ASSOCIATED PRESS

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Sean Morales-Doyle on existing safeguards against noncitizen voting // POLITIFACT

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Lawrence Norden on how artificial intelligence can affect elections // GOVERNING

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