Hudson Deciphers Shifts in American Political Ideologies

The United States is in the midst of a dramatic political shift in conventional views on national security, economics, technology, and the role of government. Hudson scholars are examining these changing norms as topics like American nationalism and the convergence of domestic and foreign policy take center stage in national debates.

In particular, Hudson launched a new podcast last week, The Realignment, which will explore these changes. The podcast is hosted by two of our new Media Fellows Saagar Enjeti [[link removed]] and Marshall Kosloff [[link removed]].

In the latest episode, they interview conservative thinker and author George Will. The episode covers a wide range of issues including the role government should have in regulating technological advances, how to deal with the threat of a rising China, and whether the United States should pursue a manufacturing-based national economic strategy to confront it. Click here to listen to the episode [[link removed]].

If you missed it, Episode 1 [[link removed]] featured a discussion with best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy, J.D. Vance.

“I think that we should consider China as our nation should have considered Nazi Germany in the mid-1930's. Only we should recognize that it’s more dangerous because it’s larger and it’s more ambitious. I think that Hitler wanted to rule Europe. I think that China wants to rule over a much larger share of the world—maybe the entire world.” – J.D. Vance ( The Realignment, Episode 1 [[link removed]])

Click the buttons below to listen and subscribe to The Realignment.

Christopher DeMuth interviewed [[link removed]] National Security Adviser John Bolton at the Edmund Burke Foundation’s “National Conservatism Conference" in July.

DeMuth followed up with an Op-Ed considering the role of the nation-state in American society in the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]], writing:

The American nation-state is rich, powerful and less constrained than any other, yet it is much more constrained than we have led ourselves to believe. Thinking of ourselves as a nation-state is, as Peter Thiel has observed, a means of unromantic self-knowledge. National conservatism, by directing our attention to our nation as it is—warts, wonders and all—is a means of reminding ourselves of our dependence on one another in the here and now, and of facing up to the constraints that are the sources of productive freedom.

Hudson Highlights

Rebeccah Heinrichs debated former DHS Sec. Jeh Johnson at the Oxford Union [[link removed]], arguing that Trump’s foreign policy is preferable to Obama’s.

John Lee assesses how China's coercion in Hong Kong has caused more problems than solutions for the Chinese Communist Party in The Australian [[link removed]].

Mike Watson considers the risks associated with the foreign policy proposals from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in the National Review [[link removed]].

Nina Shea explores how Iraq's proposed legal changes would allow mullahs to sit as judges, unraveling religious freedom efforts in the country in RealClear Politics [[link removed]].

Rob Spalding argues for permanent tariffs on China in order to ensure American manufacturers remain in the U.S. in The Hill [[link removed]].

Hudson co-founder Max Singer considers how the U.S. and Israel can achieve victory in the Israel-Palestine conflict for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies [[link removed]].

Commentary

U.S.-China Trade Talks

Michael Pillsbury discusses the current round of U.S.-China trade talks in an interview on Bloomberg’s Balance of Power [[link removed]].

In an interview with Shannon Bream on Fox News [[link removed]], Pillsbury considers warning signs from experts who say if the President keeps up the pressure in his trade war with China, that the country could be in a recession in three quarters.

Rob Spalding discusses how trade tensions between China and the U.S. illuminate growing tensions between two rival superpowers in Asia Times [[link removed]]:

Early in June, Robert Spalding, a retired Air Force general who is now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, but who was a central figure in the development of Trump’s national security strategy, gave an illuminating newspaper interview.

Asked why the US is in a trade war with China, Spalding replied: “It’s really not about trade. It’s really about what kind of world we want to live in. When you look at everything, the full scope of everything that China does, it mixes its own brand of expansive influence into its economics. And so, it’s not only the goods that we receive here, it’s the principles too.”

Spalding went on to say that what is at stake in the contest with China is American freedoms and the values on which the country was founded. More than that, the influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on global affairs undermines the values that have been built into international institutions under US leadership.

Spalding’s thoughts are echoed throughout the Trump administration and even more widely in the US. The dream that economic development in the People’s Republic of China would make Beijing into a reliable “stakeholder,” and foster political reform, achieved its zenith when, backed by former President Bill Clinton, China joined the World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.

Spalding also provides perspective on Huawei, the trade war with China, and National Security in the U.S. in an interview with Squawk Box on CNBC [[link removed]].

U.S.-Iran Conflict

Mike Doran considers Trump’s strategy with Iran in Politico [[link removed]]:

Yet even some who have pushed to end the waivers acknowledge that doing so poses a real risk of military escalation. “The administration fears that if it cancels the waivers and invokes snapback, it risks escalating the military confrontation,” said Michael Doran, who penned an essay in June arguing for ending the waivers, which was circulated widely in the administration.

But, Doran said, “The question is this: Is it better for the US to start a negotiation when Iran's nuclear program is legitimate in the eyes of international law and enjoying international partnerships with Europe, Russia and China? Or is it better to start when the program is illegitimate and has no partners? The latter is obviously preferable.”

John Lee discusses why the U.S. requests help from Australia to protect tankers in Iran in an interview on The Drum with Kathryn Robinson [[link removed]].

Seth Cropsey examines how Iran’s actions in the Middle East are impacting U.S.-Israel strategic priorities in The Hill [[link removed]]:

Continued harassment of international shipping presents the U.S. with a difficult challenge: keeping open the strategically vital choke point of the Strait of Hormuz as well as denying Iran its larger goal of regional dominance. Iran’s challenge to shipping in the Gulf seeks the near-term objective of sanctions relief. But its extensive arming of Hezbollah and leverage in Syria aim at subduing Israel and consolidating Iran’s position as regional hegemon.

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty Withdrawal

In an interview on Fox Business [[link removed]], Rebeccah Heinrichs discusses the U.S. and Russia withdrawal from the INF Treaty.

Masashi Murano considers the strategic implications of the U.S.’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty in RealClear Defense [[link removed]]:

The strategic environment is critical for the successful deployment of U.S. defenses. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force is asymmetric compared to the U.S-Japan alliance and can take advantage of the strategic depth to ensure the survivability of many TELs. Japan and the United States have only five to six major operational air bases in the western Pacific. A strategically reasonable option is to deploy robust and adequate land-based missiles in the Southwestern island chain, including Okinawa. However, political tension over U.S. military bases in Japan jeopardizes U.S.-Japan cooperation, and China could easily divide public opinion through information warfare. These measures must be carried out after diligent diplomacy with allies.

Given these political factors, regardless of the ground-based system, the most efficient and reliable approach is to expand the role of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces’ (JSDF) offensive and defensive capabilities, seamlessly combining them with U.S. conventional and nuclear capabilities.

Great Power Competition

Nadia Schadlow discusses great power competition in The Atlantic [[link removed]]:

The theme of great-power competition “was there from the beginning” of the process of developing the NSS, Schadlow, now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told me. The decision to make it central to the administration’s strategic vision won the support of the president, senior National Security Council officials, and leaders at the top national-security agencies.

“From my personal experience, [Trump] did not push back against the frame” of great-power competition, said Schadlow, who briefed the president on the NSS, when I asked whether he resisted given his desire to cultivate good relations with Russia. “While I think overall he wants to keep lines of cooperation open with all these leaders, he is realistic about the nature of their national interests.” (While the Trump administration has taken a number of tough stands against Russia, from expelling [[link removed]] Russian intelligence officers to approving [[link removed]] the sale of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, critics would argue that Trump has gone out of his way to mollify Putin.)

…

Still, Schadlow noted that there is now more “bipartisan consensus for the necessary adjustments [in U.S.-China relations] than people think,” and that “it’s going to be hard to go back.”

In Case You Missed It

Event: Ensuring U.S. Technological Superiority: An Update from Under Secretary Michael D. Griffin [[link removed]]

Transcript: Combating Transnational Crime in the Americas: A Conversation with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn [[link removed]]

Event: Countering Emerging Economic Threats [[link removed]]

Transcript: Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs: A Conversation with U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse [[link removed]]

Defense & Aerospace Report Interview: Patrick Cronin discusses the US-China trade war, Beijing & Hong Kong protests, and Seoul-Tokyo tensions [[link removed]]

Event: Prospects and Challenges for an Emerging New India [[link removed]]

Bloomberg Radio Interview: Brendan Brown discusses monetary policy and the political pressures on the Fed [[link removed]]

Scholarship

Hudson's Rebeccah Heinrichs and Brandi Jackson dispel myths surrounding the land-based leg of the nuclear triad in a new report, Modernizing the La [[link removed]] nd-Based Leg of the Nuclear Triad: Myths and Facts [[link removed]].

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