Dear MoveOn member,
Donald Trump is losing the debate. Badly. He's dodging tough questions, rambling incoherently, telling lie after after lie, and spewing hateful, racist, and xenophobic rhetoric.
It's his same old hateful playbook, and many Americans are not just sick of it but absolutely exhausted by it.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is doing superbly in this debate. She's holding her ground, laying out plans for her presidency, and showing the kind of integrity and leadership that our country needs and deserves.
If all Americans were tuned in to tonight's debate, there's no doubt that Vice President Harris would win in November.
Yet the frustrating reality is that millions of voters who would support Vice President Harris—people who stand for progress and reject Trump's dangerous agenda—aren't watching the debate.1 These are the voters who are less likely to vote unless we reach them, and soon. We call them "surge voters"—and turning them out is exactly what MoveOn does best.
We've developed a proven, highly effective strategy to turn out infrequent, progressive-leaning voters who are poised to vote for Harris—but only if they vote.
Many of these voters aren't watching debates or closely following political news. But in an election with razor-thin margins, they are the ones who will decide how the election turns out. MoveOn has the unique data analysis, member power, and volunteer infrastructure to turn them out—but that will require your support.
MoveOn's "vote tripling" program is as much as five times more effective than traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.2 It relies on relational organizing—the simple fact that people are more likely to listen to their friends and family than to a TV ad. In 2020, MoveOn helped turn out 50,000 unlikely voters in key states with this method, and we're ready to do it again.
So far this year, MoveOn members and volunteers have already made more than 342,000 calls and sent nearly 71,000 postcards to voters in battleground states. To get voters engaged, MoveOn members have hosted more than 550 house parties. And we've done extensive message testing and are showing both professionally produced ads and authentic videos of MoveOn members speaking straight to their phone's cameras, to the very inconsistent voters we've been contacting through their phones, via mail, and at their doorsteps.
But now we need to get those voters to the polls, and we need your support to finish the job. MoveOn is about to launch our get-out-the-vote program—but we are falling behind and need your help to fund it. Many of the voters we are going to reach aren't watching Trump flail onstage, and they're not aware of what a Harris-Walz administration is going to get done for the American people. But with your help, we can reach them—and encourage them to cast their ballots.
Right now, you're watching an incredibly consequential debate. As a MoveOn member, you're someone who pays close attention. You're seeing Vice President Harris's strong performance, but despite it, and no matter how well she does, this election is far from decided.
In fact, the polls show a statistical dead heat in key battleground states, and top election forecaster Nate Silver and the most recent polling from The New York Times even give Trump a slight edge.3,4 And there's another issue: The Electoral College is biased toward Republicans and underrepresents voters of color, and Big Money supports Trump's rising tide of authoritarian fascism.5,6 And now, polls show the Electoral College favoring Republicans more than the national popular vote does, just as it did in 2016 and 2020.7 So even if Vice President Harris gains enough momentum over the next two months to win the popular vote by 2 or 3 points, Trump could still win the Electoral College and thus the presidency.
Rather than focusing on daily fluctuations in the polls—noisy, error-prone, and largely out of our control—MoveOn is focusing on what we can control and what we do best: voter turnout in key battleground states. We know from experience that dead-heat elections like this are decided by turnout, and that's where MoveOn's work is crucial.
We've identified 1.5 million of these infrequent surge voters across battleground states who could make the difference between four more years of Trump and a Harris administration that moves us all forward—if they get to the polls. But to reach them, we need to scale up our efforts and close our funding gap immediately.
Now is the time to capitalize on this moment and reach the voters who aren't tuning in. The Harris campaign can't do it alone. MoveOn specializes in finding and mobilizing these critical surge voters—and we've proven that we can get them to the polls.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won the Electoral College by just 42,844 votes. That's razor-thin. And the voters who made the difference? They were people just like the ones MoveOn is organizing now—voters who lean Democratic but don't vote consistently unless they're reminded how much their vote matters. That's where you come in.
Thank you for paying attention tonight, and for all you do.
–Mohammad, Soraya, Amy, Nakia, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "The debate elevates 2024's central question: Who's paying attention?" The Washington Post, September 9, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196844?t=4&akid=405220%2E40999114%2ETudZki
2. "How MoveOn Complements and Enlivens Harris and Walz's Campaign," MoveOn, August 28, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196845?t=6&akid=405220%2E40999114%2ETudZki
3. "Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast," Silver Bulletin, September 9, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196332?t=8&akid=405220%2E40999114%2ETudZki
4. "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Summer Upheaval, Times/Siena Poll Finds," The New York Times, September 9, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196846?t=10&akid=405220%2E40999114%2ETudZki
5. "The Electoral College's Racist Origins," Brennan Center for Justice, April 1, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/196330?t=12&akid=405220%2E40999114%2ETudZki
6. "These Are The Billionaires Supporting Trump's Campaign," Forbes, June 14, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196847?t=14&akid=405220%2E40999114%2ETudZki
7. "The Electoral College bias has returned with a vengeance," Silver Bulletin, September 6, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196848?t=16&akid=405220%2E40999114%2ETudZki
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