| From | Center for Jobs and the Economy <[email protected]> |
| Subject | California Energy Price Data for August 2024 |
| Date | September 10, 2024 11:31 PM |
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Web Version [link removed] | Update Preferences [link removed] [link removed] California Energy Price Data
August 2024
Below are the monthly updates from the most current August 2024 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and June 2024 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at www.centerforjobs.org/ca
Residential Electricity Rates Now More than Double the Average for the Rest of the US
In August, California average residential electricity rates (12-month moving average) passed a new milepost, coming in at just more than double the average for the rest of the US. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states.
California Exporting Its Energy Demand & Impacts to Other States
California’s High Tech industry has often been portrayed as the “good jobs” of the future. These high wage service jobs with few environmental emissions and consequently few impacts have just as often been portrayed as justification that the state’s high level of regulations can be compatible with economic growth. Largely unaffected by those regulations, the growth of tech until recently has masked the full economic effects.
AI is changing this picture. The exponential rise in electricity demand fueled by this shift in tech industry focus is now posing challenges to both energy planning and current net zero goals. But because of the state’s stringent regulations, those challenges are now in true California fashion being exported to the other states.
The extent of this trend is analyzed in a new EPRI report [[link removed]] assessing the effects of data center electricity demand on the national grid. Using 4 alternative forecasts, data centers are expected to use 4.6% to 9.1% of US electricity generation by 2030, compared to only 4% in 2023. The lower estimate is unlikely, however, as the underlying projection was completed prior to the introduction of ChatGPT and the currently expanding raft of AI applications.
Growth in this demand is expected to be uneven, with data center expansion concentrated only in a few states with more accessible regulatory environments and lower energy costs.
California while generating much of this demand, however, is expected to provide only 6.1% of the required supply. Even at this level, data center demand is expected to grow from 3.70% of state electricity consumption in 2023, to between 4.43% and 8.70% in 2030.
These new energy demands are already having an effect on power plant planning and consequently the trend for greenhouse gas emissions in the other states. As examined in a recent article, utilities are already delaying coal plant retirements in order to meet this new demand:
While extending the life of other fossil fuel plants as well:
The consequent effect, as with many other of the state’s regulations, is not so much to reduce the emissions and their impacts, but instead shift where they will occur.
Where Do California Gasoline Prices Really Rank?
The August data again shows California with the highest gasoline prices among the contiguous states, and second highest only when Hawaii and Alaska are added into the equation. But the California price is heavily inflated by state and local taxes and fees, amounting to an additional 41% on top of the underlying product price in the August data.
Netting out these taxes and fees provides a more accurate ranking of the underlying product prices. California still remains high as is to be expected for most products produced in the state’s higher cost environment, but the August product price drops to 5th place among the states.
These calculations were done through the following steps:
State and local fees are taken from the July 2024 data from Tax Foundation [[link removed]]. The environmental program costs included in the Energy Commission calculations stem from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Cap and Trade. These costs are also included for those states with similar policies. But in spite of frequent California claims that it is a leader on climate change policies, it is often a leader with few followers. Washington is currently the only other state with an existing cap and trade program affecting fuels. Other states under the RGGI agreement have similar policies but apply them only to power plants. Washington currently estimates [[link removed]] that its program adds only 1-3% to prices, although other estimates [[link removed]] put the cost higher. Washington’s program is also being considered for repeal pursuant to Initiative 2117 on the November ballot. LCFS requirements have been adopted by only two other states. Washington expects [[link removed]] the additional cost to account for 2 cents a gallon in 2024. Oregon [[link removed]] estimated its 2023 costs at 9.8 cents a gallon. By comparison, the Energy Commission data shows the costs for both programs averaged 49.4 cents a gallon for both California programs in August. Inflation 3.3% Increase Since
July 2023
For the 12 months ending June, the California CPI rose 3.3%, easing from 3.7% in May. In the same period, the US CPI went to 3.0% in June from 3.3% in May.
California vs. Rest of US Fuel Price Gap at 40.1% Premium $1.32 Price Per Gallon
Above Other States
(CA Average)
The August average price per gallon of regular gasoline in California eased 9 cents from July to $4.62. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.30) rose to $1.32, a 40.1% difference.
1st Ranked by Price
In August, California had the highest gasoline price among the contiguous states and DC. Californians paid $1.70 a gallon more than consumers in Mississippi, the state with the lowest price.
California Gasoline Taxes and Fees $1.39 Total Taxes and Fees
Per Gallon of
Gasoline
In August, California Energy Commission data indicates that $1.39 (32.1%) of the price of a gallon of regular gasoline was paid to cover state, local, and federal taxes and fees. These taxes and fees comprise a 47% charge on the underlying product price; 41% if only the state and local components are considered.
California vs. Rest of US Diesel Price $1.30 Price Per Gallon Above Other States (CA Average)
The August average price per gallon of diesel in California eased 12 cents from July to $4.95. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.64) eased to $1.30, a 35.8% difference.
Range Between Highest and Lowest Prices by Region $1.59 Price per Gallon above Other States (Central Sierra Region)
The cost premium above the US (other than California) average price for regular gasoline ranged from $1.18 in the Inland Empire Region (average August price of $4.48), to $1.59 in Central Sierra Region (average August price of $4.89).
Highest/Lowest Fuel Prices by Legislative District California Residential Electricity Price 100.1% Above Average for
Rest of US
California average Residential Price for the 12 months ended June 2024 was 30.61 cents/kWh, 100.1% higher than the US average of 15.30 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California’s residential prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.
California Residential Electric Bill 14th Ranked by Cost
For the 12 months ended June 2024, the average annual Residential electricity bill in California was $1,786, or 79.7% higher ($792) than the comparable bill in 2010 (the year the AB 32 implementation began with the Early Action items). In this same period, the average US (less CA) electricity bill for all the other states grew only 23.2% ($316).
In 2010, California had the 9th lowest residential electricity bill among the contiguous states and DC. In the latest data, it had the 14th highest.
Residential bills, however, vary widely by region. Transforming the 2022 data recently released by the Energy Commission, estimated annual household usage is as much as 82% higher in the interior regions compared to the milder climate coastal areas, and substantially higher when comparing across counties.
$12.6b Premium Above
Average Price in
Other States
For the 12 months ended June 2024, California’s higher electricity prices translated into Residential ratepayers paying $12.6 billion more than the average ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest cost state, California households paid $15.9 billion more.
California Industrial Electricity Price 164.2 Above Average for
Rest of US
California average Industrial Price for the 12 months ended June 2024 was 20.08 cents/kWh, 164.2% higher than the US average of 7.60 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California’s industrial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.
California Commercial Electricity Price 109.9% Above average for rest of US
California average Commercial Price for the 12 months ended June 2024 was 24.76 cents/kWh, 109.8% higher than the US average of 11.80 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California’s commercial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.
$20.0b Premium Above
Average Price in
Other States
For the 12 months ended June 2024, California’s higher electricity prices translated into Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paying $20.0 billion more than ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest rate states, Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paid $25.7 billion more.
California Natural Gas Prices
Average prices ($ per thousand cubic feet; 12-month moving average) for the 12 months ended June 2024 and changes from the previous 12-month period for each end user:
Note: All data sources, methodologies and historical data series available at [[link removed]]
view report online [[link removed]] The California Center for Jobs and the Economy provides an objective and definitive source of information pertaining to job creation and economic trends in California. [[link removed]] Contact 1301 I Street Sacramento, CA 95814 916.553.4093 If you no longer wish to receive these emails, select here to unsubscribe. [link removed]
August 2024
Below are the monthly updates from the most current August 2024 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and June 2024 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at www.centerforjobs.org/ca
Residential Electricity Rates Now More than Double the Average for the Rest of the US
In August, California average residential electricity rates (12-month moving average) passed a new milepost, coming in at just more than double the average for the rest of the US. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states.
California Exporting Its Energy Demand & Impacts to Other States
California’s High Tech industry has often been portrayed as the “good jobs” of the future. These high wage service jobs with few environmental emissions and consequently few impacts have just as often been portrayed as justification that the state’s high level of regulations can be compatible with economic growth. Largely unaffected by those regulations, the growth of tech until recently has masked the full economic effects.
AI is changing this picture. The exponential rise in electricity demand fueled by this shift in tech industry focus is now posing challenges to both energy planning and current net zero goals. But because of the state’s stringent regulations, those challenges are now in true California fashion being exported to the other states.
The extent of this trend is analyzed in a new EPRI report [[link removed]] assessing the effects of data center electricity demand on the national grid. Using 4 alternative forecasts, data centers are expected to use 4.6% to 9.1% of US electricity generation by 2030, compared to only 4% in 2023. The lower estimate is unlikely, however, as the underlying projection was completed prior to the introduction of ChatGPT and the currently expanding raft of AI applications.
Growth in this demand is expected to be uneven, with data center expansion concentrated only in a few states with more accessible regulatory environments and lower energy costs.
California while generating much of this demand, however, is expected to provide only 6.1% of the required supply. Even at this level, data center demand is expected to grow from 3.70% of state electricity consumption in 2023, to between 4.43% and 8.70% in 2030.
These new energy demands are already having an effect on power plant planning and consequently the trend for greenhouse gas emissions in the other states. As examined in a recent article, utilities are already delaying coal plant retirements in order to meet this new demand:
While extending the life of other fossil fuel plants as well:
The consequent effect, as with many other of the state’s regulations, is not so much to reduce the emissions and their impacts, but instead shift where they will occur.
Where Do California Gasoline Prices Really Rank?
The August data again shows California with the highest gasoline prices among the contiguous states, and second highest only when Hawaii and Alaska are added into the equation. But the California price is heavily inflated by state and local taxes and fees, amounting to an additional 41% on top of the underlying product price in the August data.
Netting out these taxes and fees provides a more accurate ranking of the underlying product prices. California still remains high as is to be expected for most products produced in the state’s higher cost environment, but the August product price drops to 5th place among the states.
These calculations were done through the following steps:
State and local fees are taken from the July 2024 data from Tax Foundation [[link removed]]. The environmental program costs included in the Energy Commission calculations stem from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Cap and Trade. These costs are also included for those states with similar policies. But in spite of frequent California claims that it is a leader on climate change policies, it is often a leader with few followers. Washington is currently the only other state with an existing cap and trade program affecting fuels. Other states under the RGGI agreement have similar policies but apply them only to power plants. Washington currently estimates [[link removed]] that its program adds only 1-3% to prices, although other estimates [[link removed]] put the cost higher. Washington’s program is also being considered for repeal pursuant to Initiative 2117 on the November ballot. LCFS requirements have been adopted by only two other states. Washington expects [[link removed]] the additional cost to account for 2 cents a gallon in 2024. Oregon [[link removed]] estimated its 2023 costs at 9.8 cents a gallon. By comparison, the Energy Commission data shows the costs for both programs averaged 49.4 cents a gallon for both California programs in August. Inflation 3.3% Increase Since
July 2023
For the 12 months ending June, the California CPI rose 3.3%, easing from 3.7% in May. In the same period, the US CPI went to 3.0% in June from 3.3% in May.
California vs. Rest of US Fuel Price Gap at 40.1% Premium $1.32 Price Per Gallon
Above Other States
(CA Average)
The August average price per gallon of regular gasoline in California eased 9 cents from July to $4.62. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.30) rose to $1.32, a 40.1% difference.
1st Ranked by Price
In August, California had the highest gasoline price among the contiguous states and DC. Californians paid $1.70 a gallon more than consumers in Mississippi, the state with the lowest price.
California Gasoline Taxes and Fees $1.39 Total Taxes and Fees
Per Gallon of
Gasoline
In August, California Energy Commission data indicates that $1.39 (32.1%) of the price of a gallon of regular gasoline was paid to cover state, local, and federal taxes and fees. These taxes and fees comprise a 47% charge on the underlying product price; 41% if only the state and local components are considered.
California vs. Rest of US Diesel Price $1.30 Price Per Gallon Above Other States (CA Average)
The August average price per gallon of diesel in California eased 12 cents from July to $4.95. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.64) eased to $1.30, a 35.8% difference.
Range Between Highest and Lowest Prices by Region $1.59 Price per Gallon above Other States (Central Sierra Region)
The cost premium above the US (other than California) average price for regular gasoline ranged from $1.18 in the Inland Empire Region (average August price of $4.48), to $1.59 in Central Sierra Region (average August price of $4.89).
Highest/Lowest Fuel Prices by Legislative District California Residential Electricity Price 100.1% Above Average for
Rest of US
California average Residential Price for the 12 months ended June 2024 was 30.61 cents/kWh, 100.1% higher than the US average of 15.30 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California’s residential prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.
California Residential Electric Bill 14th Ranked by Cost
For the 12 months ended June 2024, the average annual Residential electricity bill in California was $1,786, or 79.7% higher ($792) than the comparable bill in 2010 (the year the AB 32 implementation began with the Early Action items). In this same period, the average US (less CA) electricity bill for all the other states grew only 23.2% ($316).
In 2010, California had the 9th lowest residential electricity bill among the contiguous states and DC. In the latest data, it had the 14th highest.
Residential bills, however, vary widely by region. Transforming the 2022 data recently released by the Energy Commission, estimated annual household usage is as much as 82% higher in the interior regions compared to the milder climate coastal areas, and substantially higher when comparing across counties.
$12.6b Premium Above
Average Price in
Other States
For the 12 months ended June 2024, California’s higher electricity prices translated into Residential ratepayers paying $12.6 billion more than the average ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest cost state, California households paid $15.9 billion more.
California Industrial Electricity Price 164.2 Above Average for
Rest of US
California average Industrial Price for the 12 months ended June 2024 was 20.08 cents/kWh, 164.2% higher than the US average of 7.60 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California’s industrial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.
California Commercial Electricity Price 109.9% Above average for rest of US
California average Commercial Price for the 12 months ended June 2024 was 24.76 cents/kWh, 109.8% higher than the US average of 11.80 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California’s commercial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.
$20.0b Premium Above
Average Price in
Other States
For the 12 months ended June 2024, California’s higher electricity prices translated into Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paying $20.0 billion more than ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest rate states, Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paid $25.7 billion more.
California Natural Gas Prices
Average prices ($ per thousand cubic feet; 12-month moving average) for the 12 months ended June 2024 and changes from the previous 12-month period for each end user:
Note: All data sources, methodologies and historical data series available at [[link removed]]
view report online [[link removed]] The California Center for Jobs and the Economy provides an objective and definitive source of information pertaining to job creation and economic trends in California. [[link removed]] Contact 1301 I Street Sacramento, CA 95814 916.553.4093 If you no longer wish to receive these emails, select here to unsubscribe. [link removed]
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